Assuming Clinton governed and campaigned more to the center than Obama has, the 2010 wave would be smaller, but probably still enough to flip the House. Without Obama's campaign skills or supercharged black turnout and the economy still being iffy, 2012 would basically be a pure toss up turning on OH, which Clinton narrowly wins.
Obama has the 2016 nomination locked up 5X/3X over a Blue Dog type Southerner/Midwesterner. Sanders doesn't run, as Obama still represents the frontier of the modern left. Trump probably isn't running either, and he wouldn't win if he did. Kasich is probably up narrowly over Cruz in the GOP primary. Obama would be favored over Cruz, but would lose to Kasich by a Dukakis 1988 margin.
Other than the Mike Dukakis style loss to Kasich, I agree with everything here.
