PA: CNN/Time: Toomey up 4

[J. J.]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

Agreed.  I'm wondering why Sestak was spending so much time in State College.

[J. J.]

Who has the momentum?

Honestly, I think it's with Toomey. Sestak got the coverage he needed out of those two or three polls to make it seem like this was going to be a nail biter. A good amount of Dems "came home" to Sestak but I think he has hit his high water mark.

Agreed.  I'm wondering why Sestak was spending so much time in State College.

Because the district encompassing state college (Centre County) is pretty liberal.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1
It was one of the few that went for Obama in the primary (by 20 points mind you).  Yes its only 24,000+ votes, but if he can get the young people there to vote and come out in droves, hell in a race like this a few thousand votes can make all the difference.

Also went pretty handily for Obama in the general (by ~12 points):
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=1&off=0&elect=0

It is a county that neither Kerry or Gore won (Clinton won with under 50% in both 92 and 96).  So the fact that a "liberal" (liberal in quotes because I don't consider Obama a true liberal contrary to what Fox News wants people to believe) can win in this central PA district pretty handily with more than 50% of the vote should give Sestak, who is generally thought of as more "conservative" (conservative in quotes because he is more liberal than people give him credit for), a pretty solid chance of winning that district.


On a side note...
Sestak does not necessarily need to run up the vote in Philadelphia county to win.  If he performs well in many districts, he should do well.

Casey won in PA with only 424,000+ votes (84.1% DEM, or 356,000+ dem votes)...as he won many other PA districts
Hoeffel lost in PA with 641,000+ votes (70.5% DEM, or 452,000+ dem votes)...as he won only 3 other districts (mind you this was a GOP year in 2004, and Specter was a favorite among AA's...but 100,000 votes in a state that Kerry won should get you close enough to win IF you win other districts in PA, which Hoeffel failed to do, including Delware county which went to Obama at 60+%).
Kink lost in PA with 526,000+ votes (75.7% DEM, or 398,000+ dem votes.  He was closer to beating Santorum than Hoeffel was to Specter.  Again, Kink failed to win many other districts, namely the PA suburbs).

And 1998...lol...Lloyd got drubbed with a vote total in Philadelphia county barely over 300,000, and didn't even break 60% (58.7% to be exact).


So in short, I think if Sestak breaks 75% in Philadelphia county with at least 600,000 votes, he would be in prime position to win in a close race like this.  If only 400,000-500,000 voters come out and he breaks 75%, he better hope he wins a few more counties around PA, including Centre county which I believe is within reach.  At 300,000-400,000, forget it, he would lose.

I can see 500,000-600,000 in Philadelphia.  And with an ultra-conservative like Toomey, I can see over 80% (what I can see and what will happen are two different things, obviously).
2004 and 1998 were low DEM % in Phila county because it was Snarlin' Arlen, who was a favorite among the Philadelphia locals.  2000 and 2006 were high % because of an ultra-conservative like Santorum.

And, it only has 24,000 voters; by registration, it is barely Democratic.  In 2009, most everyone won county wide was a Republican.  The one Democrat that won, I contributed to!!!