AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[MT Treasurer]

This election will be held on December 12, 2017, to choose Senator Jeff Sessions' successor who will complete the Senate term through January 2021.

GOP primary:

38% Moore
30% Strange
23% Brooks
9% Others

GOP runoff:

55% Moore
45% Strange

DEM runoff:

56% Jones
44% Kennedy

General election:

51% Doug Jones (D) 🗸
45% Roy Moore (R)
4% Write-in

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. I agree that Brooks is the least unelectable candidate, and Strange is the worst. Sucks that McConnell is wasting millions to prop up Strange, it could be used elsewhere, and, incidentally, Strange is the weakest. I do agree that it will be a Moore vs. Strange runoff, and I think that the runoff will come down to the wire. I would say Strange probably has the edge right now, but Moore can definitely catch up.

Yeah, her decision to hold this election in 2017 wasn't a smart political move by Ivey. Who do you think wins the Democratic primary?

[MT Treasurer]

*bump*

GOP runoff:

53% Moore
47% Strange

General election:

55% Roy Moore (R)
45% Doug Jones (D)

53% Luther Strange (R)
47% Doug Jones (D)

Rating is Likely R.

Moving this to Lean R, but my prediction for the primary remains the same (and probably the final one). That said, I expect the GE to be a bit closer than that now (and I might move the race to Tossup if Strange is the nominee)

[MT Treasurer]

GOP runoff:

53% Moore
47% Strange

Changing this to 55-45 Moore.

[MT Treasurer]

Bump. Moving this to Tossup obviously, but I have no idea who will win or by what margin. It should be relatively close, though.

[MT Treasurer]

This is my preliminary GE prediction:

52% Jones (D)
44% Moore (R)
4% Write-in

Changing this to 50-47-3 Jones. Still Lean D.