Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[American2020]

Russia will have a post-Vietnam moment which will be hard to manage.
https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1766361518117896315

[jaichind]

Russia will have a post-Vietnam moment which will be hard to manage.

I agree with the post-Vietnam part of the statement.  The best parallel I can think of for Russia right now would be somewhere between the USA in the Vietnam War and the USA in the Korean War.  And yes, after the war is over, Russia will have to deal with all sorts of economic dislocations from the war just like the USA had to deal with in the mid to late 1970s.

Everything has to be viewed in relative terms.  

For 2024 Russia's military spending is expected to be 6% of the GDP which is actually comparable to the USA in the early 1980s big military buildup and lower than the 7%-10% the USA spent during the Vietnam War and 10%-13% during the Korean War.  Agreed that Russia is now overspending on social programs to maintain political peace at home during the war but the same took place in the USA in the late 1960s as well.  So I agree that these two situations are fairly comparable and in the end manageable after the war is over.


As for demographics, Russia's 2024 expected fertility rate is actually a bit higher than the USA.   Russia has also had a lot of Central Asian immigration to augment its labor force which is very problematic from a cultural point of view just like the surge of immigrants to the USA is also a cultural-political problem for the USA.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/fertility-rate
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/fertility-rate

The true disaster of course would be Ukraine as viewed by its 2023 population pyramid.  There was a large surge of people, especially women, in their 20s leaving Ukraine as part of the war or having been killed in the conflict.  The longer the war lasts the people that migrated will become established in other countries and are less likely to come back when the war is over..  This is the reason why for Ukraine this war has to be ended as soon as possible.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-10/bond-investors-are-lining-up-to-fund-the-war-against-putin?embedded-checkout=true

"Bond Investors Are Lining Up to Fund the War Against Putin"

Yeah, the reason the bond market wants EU-issued debt is because they will likely be AAA-rated since they know Germany is on the hook to pay.  This is a perfect workaround for Germany's legal restrictions on how big the deficit can get which limits how much German Bunds are available.   The prospect of a crisis of Russian victory is the perfect excuse to get something like this going.  The whole thing is a scheme to add to the German public debt beyond what is legally allowed in Germany.

[jaichind]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3837752-ukraines-justice-minister-bill-on-mobilization-of-convicts-may-be-registered-next-week.html

"Ukraine's justice minister: Bill on mobilization of convicts may be registered next week"

I wonder if Ukraine will start forming a Wagner-like unit based on convicts.

[jaichind]

I wonder why they even discuss troops on the ground instead of air strikes. Wouldn't that be more effective? A lack of air superiority has always been a weakspot for Ukraine. If a NATO member ever got involved, I'd launch a series of massive air strikes against Russian positions. That would also greatly limit losses, especially by using drones. I'm not a military expert, that would just make more sense to me. Of course it's theoretical as NATO would de facto become a party in the war. At latest when Russia tries to attack the bases or ships from where the drones or fighter jets are launched.

I think the best way for the collective West to help Ukraine would be something like Flying Tiger where ex-NATO pilots and support staff get hired by the Ukrian government to fly NATO military aircraft of all sorts.  This gets around the training and logistical issue as long as NATO can also provide planes and parts needed for maintenance. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1766832681118003218
Something went boom in St Petersburg 👀

[The Dowager Mod]

lol
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1766819435451502747

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/europe/russian-guided-bomb-ukraine-frontline-intl/index.html

"Russia’s new guided bomb inflicts devastation and heavy casualties on the Ukrainian front lines"

The bomb is the FAB-1500, essentially a 1.5-tonne weapon of which nearly half comprises high explosives. It is delivered from above by fighter jets from a distance of some 60-70 kilometers, out of range of many Ukrainian air defenses. The FAB-1500 is another example of how Russia is fighting its war in Ukraine, inflicting massive destruction before trying to take territory.

[All Along The Watchtower]

IMO, the US narrative with Navalny is more about gaining sympathy from a US audience by exploiting the death.  The whole story seems fishy to me.  Why would he return to Russia after Germany accused Putin of poisoning him? 

To put all of the anti-Putin Russians living comfortably in the West to shame.

Navalny was never going to be Russia's leader, but he and his movement gave Russians (and others) an example of resistance to Putin, and in doing so gave them hope that an alternative was possible. That was his unforgivable crime in the eyes of the Kremlin.

[Storr]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-ukraine-should-have-courage-white-flag-negotiations-2024-03-09/

"Pope says Ukraine should have 'courage of the white flag' of negotiations"

Putin has now weaponizied the Pope?

"A thinly veiled reply to Pope Francis’s “white flag” remark from Zelensky: “In Ukraine, there were many once-white walls of houses and churches that are now scorched and ruined by Russian shells. And this speaks very eloquently about who has to stop for the war to end.”"

"And Ukrainian FM Kuleba’s even more pointed response to the Pope: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.”"

[Illiniwek]

I get what the Pope was trying to say, but it’s still a bad look.

[jaichind]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/10/7445822/

"Orbán describes Trump's in-depth plans to end war: he won't give a penny"

[jaichind]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/10624373/ukrainian-soldiers-brit-challenger-2-tanks-russia/

"UP FOR THE CHALLENGE I joined Ukrainian soldiers in Brit-made Challenger 2 tanks that blast Russian invaders from up to 4.5km away"

The Sun goes to Ukraine to see the Challenger 2 in action.  While it is a powerful tank it does point out the downsides of operating this tank in Ukraine.

“They keep getting stuck in the mud because it is so heavy.”

But a bigger problem is reliability. Five have broken down and Kayfarick said spare parts from Britain sometimes take months to arrive and he had a shortage of skilled mechanics to keep the hardware fighting fit.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

"Exclusive: Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine"

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile, Germany's SEDs are doing SED things. 😡
If you wanna know what world-shattering opinions they have to announce, hit the "Translate" button!

https://twitter.com/GregorGysi/status/1767111035779985510

https://twitter.com/ernst_klaus/status/1767128851673448549

[Open Source Intelligence]

The true disaster of course would be Ukraine as viewed by its 2023 population pyramid.  There was a large surge of people, especially women, in their 20s leaving Ukraine as part of the war or having been killed in the conflict.  The longer the war lasts the people that migrated will become established in other countries and are less likely to come back when the war is over..  This is the reason why for Ukraine this war has to be ended as soon as possible.

Source?

From an overall "demographic health of country standpoint", excess women once they're past child-bearing age does not really matter outside of you have that many women that don't have a male partner their age to support them, so you either get a bunch of old widows or old spinsters that either require their children or the state to support them if she was not economically good enough to take care of herself in old age (I imagine there were very limited opportunities for that for people that would've been growing up in Soviet Ukraine). The greater problem in that pyramid is the bottleneck in the 20s on both sides and you can see how it's feeding into the birthrate when you look at the people under age 5. So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

[Lord Halifax]

So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

what time? It takes a few seconds for a computer to calculate that number and men dying early in ex-Soviet countries has social real consequences, not everything is about reproduction, economics and productivity.   

[Open Source Intelligence]

So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

what time? It takes a few seconds for a computer to calculate that number and men dying early in ex-Soviet countries has social real consequences, not everything is about reproduction, economics and productivity.  

Goal in statistics is to only focus on the data that matters because you can add a hundred data points to anything that does not result in greater understanding of the subject matter and can in fact lead to less understanding via confusing the recipient. A person looks at that chart and the most noticeable thing you see first is excess women above the age of 40 because it's the darkest color and is pretty large in the 50s to 70s age range.

[Lord Halifax]

So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

what time? It takes a few seconds for a computer to calculate that number and men dying early in ex-Soviet countries has social real consequences, not everything is about reproduction, economics and productivity.  

Goal in statistics is to only focus on the data that matters because you can add a hundred data points to anything that does not result in greater understanding of the subject matter and can in fact lead to less understanding via confusing the recipient. A person looks at that chart and the most noticeable thing you see first is excess women above the age of 40 because it's the darkest color and is pretty large in the 50s to 70s age range.

but you don't know what was the purpose of generating that chart, it could have been made for a sociological study, you're just jumping to conclusions about "the subject matter"

[CumbrianLefty]

I get what the Pope was trying to say, but it’s still a bad look.

Apart from anything else, its not beyond the bounds of possibility that a man in his mid-80s doesn't express himself as eloquently or unambiguously as might once have been the case.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I see a certain Putin simp yellow avatar jumped all over the CNN article this morning about how Russia is heavily out producing the collective west on artillery production but people reading through picked up issues on it
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1767142548873650391?s=20

[jaichind]

Source?

From an overall "demographic health of country standpoint", excess women once they're past child-bearing age does not really matter outside of you have that many women that don't have a male partner their age to support them, so you either get a bunch of old widows or old spinsters that either require their children or the state to support them if she was not economically good enough to take care of herself in old age (I imagine there were very limited opportunities for that for people that would've been growing up in Soviet Ukraine). The greater problem in that pyramid is the bottleneck in the 20s on both sides and you can see how it's feeding into the birthrate when you look at the people under age 5. So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

The Ukraine population pyramid is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

All things equal the main problem is not the male-female balance but the fact that a large number of people in the 20s are no longer around (either KIA or abroad)

Generically you always want more women since they are demographically more valuable than men. The number of possible children is bounded by the number of child bearing age women available.  A simple thought exercise would be "if the world came to the end and you had to start from scratch would you want to start with 99 men and 1 women or 99 women and 1 man"

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/09/a-russian-drone-spotted-a-ukrainian-patriot-air-defense-crew-convoying-near-the-front-line-soon-a-russian-hypersonic-missile-streaked-down/?sh=559b62a93514

"A Russian Drone Spotted A Ukrainian Patriot Air-Defense Crew Convoying Near The Front Line. Soon, A Russian Hypersonic Missile Streaked Down."

Forbes seems to confirm that the Russians were able to disable a Patriot system which will be hard to replace

It was the first time in Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine that the Russians have managed to find and target part of a Ukrainian Patriot battery. And for the Russians, the hit couldn’t have come at a more pivotal time.

That’s because U.S. firm Raytheon is the sole builder of Patriot hardware, although a German partner does contribute to the production of Patriot missiles. Ukraine or one of its allies could get in line to buy replacement launchers to replace the two the Russians just destroyed, but that purchase could take months if not years and cost millions of dollars Kyiv likely hasn’t budgeted for.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world/europe/ukraine-f16-pilots.html

"Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few"

It’s still unclear when Ukrainian pilots will begin training at the center, at the Fetesti air base in southeast Romania, which NATO allies also are using to get schooled on the fighter jets. But the delay is a window into the confusion and chaos that has confronted the military alliance’s rush to supply the F-16s.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Source?

From an overall "demographic health of country standpoint", excess women once they're past child-bearing age does not really matter outside of you have that many women that don't have a male partner their age to support them, so you either get a bunch of old widows or old spinsters that either require their children or the state to support them if she was not economically good enough to take care of herself in old age (I imagine there were very limited opportunities for that for people that would've been growing up in Soviet Ukraine). The greater problem in that pyramid is the bottleneck in the 20s on both sides and you can see how it's feeding into the birthrate when you look at the people under age 5. So not sure why the chart takes the time to measure "excess" of one sex.

The Ukraine population pyramid is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

All things equal the main problem is not the male-female balance but the fact that a large number of people in the 20s are no longer around (either KIA or abroad)

Generically you always want more women since they are demographically more valuable than men. The number of possible children is bounded by the number of child bearing age women available.  A simple thought exercise would be "if the world came to the end and you had to start from scratch would you want to start with 99 men and 1 women or 99 women and 1 man"

Ukraine really is the most demographically challenged country in Europe.