US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Sbane]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

[Torie]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

I don't know about that. A plus 6% GOP PVI for the Pubbie zone (my estimate of where it will end up) leaves a fair amount of pad. (Remember that the state of Ohio starts out with a GOP PVI of 1.5%.) A 4% GOP PVI would be good enough, assuming even Pubbie distribution in the Pubbie zone, which of course it won't be. For starters, we probably will need to make sure Boehner has at least a 6% GOP PVI. We don't want him to by "Folyized."  In any event, some of my erosity can be done away with, but they will have to do my little cut through Cleveland, or it won't work at all. I do suspect to see both the Akron and Canton cuts as well, with Akron of course being a given. In any event, I will try to make the balance of the map pretty for you, so be happy sbane. I am really proud of OH-13. I spent a lot of time on it.

[Torie]

Here is a clean-looking 12-4 map which keeps the Columbus crack and puts urban Canton in Tim Ryan's district, but doesn't go the full 13-3 route.

http://twitpic.com/4af7sr

Pathetic - it sucks.

[minionofmidas]

We don't want him to by "Folyized."

My linguistic sensibilities demand "Foleyfied".

[Horus]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

Agreed. It doesn't matter how gerrymandered the state is, 13-3 just won't work. It'll be 10-6 or 9-7 by 2014. If they make a 12-4 map now they can keep it all decade if done right.

[minionofmidas]

The state's not trending any way. So, vile as the northeast map is, it should hold unless Johnson fouls up.
Columbus (or even Cincy, but R's can always regain lost seats there) is another matter. Can't speak before we actually see a finished Columbus Chop map.

[Sbane]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

I don't know about that. A plus 6% GOP PVI for the Pubbie zone (my estimate of where it will end up) leaves a fair amount of pad. (Remember that the state of Ohio starts out with a GOP PVI of 1.5%.) A 4% GOP PVI would be good enough, assuming even Pubbie distribution in the Pubbie zone, which of course it won't be. For starters, we probably will need to make sure Boehner has at least a 6% GOP PVI. We don't want him to by "Folyized."  In any event, some of my erosity can be done away with, but they will have to do my little cut through Cleveland, or it won't work at all. I do suspect to see both the Akron and Canton cuts as well, with Akron of course being a given. In any event, I will try to make the balance of the map pretty for you, so be happy sbane. I am really proud of OH-13. I spent a lot of time on it.

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

[krazen1211]

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

Ohio Republicans haven't actually commented on much. We don't know if they're actually trying to do a 13-3 map; they've actually hinted that the aren't, or at least that such will be 'incredibly difficult'.

[Sbane]

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

Ohio Republicans haven't actually commented on much. We don't know if they're actually trying to do a 13-3 map; they've actually hinted that the aren't, or at least that such will be 'incredibly difficult'.

I think a 13-3-1 map might be in the realm of possibility, and it could be a greedy map, but not exactly a suicidal map.

[freepcrusher]

here is my map

 

[freepcrusher]

the top is of course a view of the entire state followed by a view of the Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus Areas.

Dark Blue district in Hamilton County is District 1. This is a 64.4% White District. Steve Chabot is the incumbent here. Should be a swing district most years.

Green district is District 2. Basically takes some areas on the Ohio River east of Cincinnati and absorbs some areas from CD 6. This is the whitest district at 93% white. Mean Jean is the incumbent in what will probably be a safe republican district.

Purple district is District 3. Basically takes in most of the Dayton area and some parts to the southeast. This is a 78.8% White District and would have Steve Austria (if he decides to run here) going up against Mike Turner in the primary. Dayton is a fairly democratic city, but the area surrounding it is just as republican. Lean GOP

Red District is District 4. Similar to the old District 4. Except that it takes in some areas of Columbus. Nowhere near as republican as it used to be. Probably only in the R+6 to R+8 range. This is an 84.1% White District and Jim Jordan is the incumbent. Likely GOP

Yellow district is District 5. Again, fairly similar to the old CD 5 except that it takes in some parts of Lucas County. This is a 91.7% White district. Politically, this is probably similar to the old 5th District at around an R+7. Likely GOP

Turquoise District is District 6. Expands and takes in the Canton, Massillon area. This is a 91% White District. Bill Johnson is the incumbent here. I'm guessing this would be a tossup district.

Silver district is District 7. No incumbent lives here, but Steve Austria may run here as most of his district is located here. This is a 87.4% White District and a likely republican seat.

The light purple district is District 8. Basically takes in the southwestern corner of the state and easily the most republican in the state. This is an 87.6% White District. Current House Speaker and soon-to-be Minority Leader John Boehner is the incumbent in this district.

Light blue district is District 9. Basically takes in the heavily democratic city of Toledo and some areas to the east. This is a 73.8% White District. Marcy Kaptur has survived 1994 and 2010, so she's here for life.

In the cleveland area, the pink district in the central part of Cuyahoga county is District 10. This is a 47.8% White, 41.9% Black, 6.1% Hispanic, 2.1% Asian, 1.9% Other, and .2% Native American District. This is easily the most democratic district in the state. Marcia Fudge is the incumbent here.

[freepcrusher]

The Light Green district in the northeast corner is District 11. This is an 83.1% White District and takes in a lot of areas formerly in the 17th District. Steve LaTourette is the incumbent here. Tossup District.

The light blue district is District 12. Pat Tiberi gets a good deal with the dem precincts in Columbus all removed. It takes in a good deal of the old 18th District and he would face Bob Gibbs in the primary here. This is a 93.4% White District. Safe Republican

Tan colored district in Cleveland/Akron area is District 13. This is an 84.1% White district and Kucinich would most likely face Sutton in a primary here. Safe Democrat.

Puke colored district is District 14. This takes in the Youngstown/Niles area. This is an 83.2% White district and Tim Ryan is the incumbent here. Safe Democrat.

In the Columbus Area the orange district is District 15. This is a 62.4% White District. Steve Stivers is the incumbent here. Mary Jo Kilroy may challenge him in a rematch. Tossup.

The light green district in north central Ohio is District 16. This is a 92% White District and Jim Renacci is the incumbent. Likely GOP

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

Ohio Republicans haven't actually commented on much. We don't know if they're actually trying to do a 13-3 map; they've actually hinted that the aren't, or at least that such will be 'incredibly difficult'.

I think a 13-3-1 map might be in the realm of possibility, and it could be a greedy map, but not exactly a suicidal map.

Given how badly the Republicans have been polling in the state lately, as well as the state's propensity for wild, volatile swings due to the popularity or lack thereof of a single individual, if they draw a 13-3 map would likely shoot themselves in the foot.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

My gerrymander is going to be moderate/tempered. I even packed Columbus' minorities, students and white collar liberals into a district just to be safe. Stivers(sp?) would be an easy target for Democrats anyways even if his district stayed in its current configuration.

edit: I see what Torie is saying now, gerrymandering ohio further is a pain.

[Torie]

When looking at this map, I stand humbly before my God.  The image to me is transfixing. It contains so much information on so many levels.  For starters, for this neck of the woods, just look how seamless the muni boundaries track SES, partisan affiliation, and yes race.  I drew the boundaries ignoring muni boundaries really, and just look, just look, how almost precisely I followed them! What does that tell you?  And thanks Dave Bradlee for putting up the municipal lines so that what is in my mind, is now revealed!



I am putting this up as the final image of my Dem pack, before I do the calcs to know how many Pubbie points I have to spread around in the balance, to know more clearly the parameters for the Pubbie CD's of the Goldilocks zone. That zone varies from state to state.

[minionofmidas]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Only the preclearance requirement doesn't apply.

[Torie]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Only the preclearance requirement doesn't apply.

It's a combo of political expedience (the GOP-black politician entrepreneur alliance thing on this decennial gerry thing is always fascinating to watch), and legal caution, so it is a done deal, that unless the OH-11 prong to Akron itself makes the map vulnerable (no it does not) of course it will be done by the Pubbies!  So let it be done; it is so written.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Only the preclearance requirement doesn't apply.

It's a combo of political expedience (the GOP-black politician entrepreneur alliance thing on this decennial gerry thing is always fascinating to watch), and legal caution, so it is a done deal, that unless the OH-11 prong to Akron itself makes the map vulnerable (no it does not) of course it will be done by the Pubbies!  So let it be done; it is so written.

This is how I did it without the OH-11 Akron prong:


Thoughts?

[Napoleon]

If the Ohio GOP is smart, they won't try the 13-3 dummymander in waiting. 12-4 would be much safer and one seat lost is worth less than four seats lost down the road.

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. To do that, I had to explore Toledo in more depth, and found about 15 precincts to chop out of OH-09, that escaped me, because you have to cut through an anti Pubbie precinct to get to them. That was key. It allowed me to cut out 15 60% plus Obama precincts from OH-16, and dump them into OH-09 in turn. It rather magically unlocked another Pubbie point that I did not know was there. It does make the Toledo look like somebody stabbed it on the south side of the city, but stuff happens. And the partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 should be about spot on, and quite safe for the Pubbie. Sutton will move on to other work; he will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think. And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the partisan numbers where I want them, or of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or if the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot.

The goal of course is to max the odds that Obama, even if he wins re-election, will for the balance of his tenure, have to deal with a GOP House. And that is my goal, and if I have any influence at all, I hope to increase the odds a tad that that will happen. I mean that.

[jimrtex]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Section 2 does apply, and the USDOJ has been active recently in bring complaints in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland, such as  Euclid, where they've produced a really ugly district following the Interstate and picking off apartments along the interstate, but stopping a block or so from the city limits so another district can get to south of the freeway.  And since Cleveland has had a black district since 1969 it is unlikely to go away now.

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. The partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 should be about spot on, and quite safe for the Pubbie. Sutton will move on to other work; he will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think.  And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the numbers where I want them, unless of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot).

I had to do a number on Toledo to get there, because I wanted to get about fifteen 60% plus Obama precincts out of OH-16, and to do that, I needed to cut into Toledo some more vis a vis OH-09. So looking more closely, I found that if you stab trough a heavy Omaba precinct on Toledo's south side, on the other side of it is this linear line of GOP plus PVI precincts or close to it, running almost all the way to the Lucas County line to the east. So now Toledo has been stabbed; it's dead.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

[Torie]

We don't want him to by "Folyized."

My linguistic sensibilities demand "Foleyfied".

Thank you. Among other things, I realized I dropped an "e,"  but decided to let you point that out for me. Thanks again! 

[minionofmidas]

I certainly wouldn't have replied just for the "e". But "foleyfied" sounds like a word the English language needs.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

Sutton will likely lose the primary to Ryan. Kaptur will likely lose the primary to Kucinich.
This is presuming (just for the sake of the argument) that they all run, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, I admit I framed this answer that way largely for aesthetic reasons. Kaptur would beat Kucinich, and Sutton is, I think, in your lawngreen pubbie seat, but near the Akron end.