2023-2024 College Basketball Discussion Thread (user search)
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  2023-2024 College Basketball Discussion Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2023-2024 College Basketball Discussion Thread  (Read 3006 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Posts: 14,782
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Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« on: March 19, 2024, 08:23:08 AM »

In the 6-11 matchups:
- New Mexico is outright favored and rightfully so
- Oregon is a 1 point underdog and probably should be expected to win
- N.C. State is Oregon with a much tougher draw at 2.5 point underdog. I don't think they pull it off because they've already done enough for this season to be a success but no one would be shocked if they beat Texas Tech

- But no one is giving Duquesne a chance as they have been bet up from 7 to 9 point underdogs against BYU.

Is there any team that seems like a bigger fraud than BYU, which ranks 350th in the Away From Home performance metric, 278th in momentum? BYU just jacks up 3's (2nd nationally) despite having the 2nd leading field goal percentage from the paint. Meanwhile Duquesne is a defensive behemoth that ranks 23rd in Away from Home and 24th in Momentum. You can throw out the first half of their results where they were nowhere near the team they were projected to be until they pulled it together. I was not at all surprised they beat Dayton or VCU (although I thought the Bonnies would squeak by despite already losing to the Dukes twice).

Given that this game is going to be played in the Plains rather than the Mountains, I really am stunned by the money movement in this one. I guess I will probably take the points, but a bit worried to go against the inside knowledge.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,782
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2024, 08:36:52 AM »

Also surprising: Samford over Kansas and Charleston over Alabama have the same probability, but no one is picking the latter.

Charleston was better last year when they failed to deliver the upset, but they also lost to the national runner-up (and played them much closer than the SoCon champion). Pat Kelsey is already a hot commodity on the job market, and it would not be surprising to see him in a better job if he wins again here.

Alabama's defense is putrid and has been their undoing time and time again.

As with Duquesne above, I would probably ride with the 9.5 - although Torvik doesn't agree with me here (7 for Duquesne but 11 for Charleston) - and maybe over 173.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,782
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2024, 08:28:49 PM »

I've always admired Oakland as the potential jewel of an all-private school MVC, but the thought of the diatribe that Alben Barkley could concoct against John Calipari right now makes me love them so much more. I will gladly buy his next drink if it helps conjure up something really iconic.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,782
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2024, 09:15:56 PM »

I've always admired Oakland as the potential jewel of an all-private school MVC, but the thought of the diatribe that Alben Barkley could concoct against John Calipari right now makes me love them so much more. I will gladly buy his next drink if it helps conjure up something really iconic.

But Oakland is public

Wow, that is a major embarrassing oversight! XD I must have anticipated Michigan electing a privatization extremist Tongue (Or probably should have just referred to it as non-scholarship football schools)
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,782
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2024, 05:56:00 AM »

Last year, I boldly had Memphis as my Final Four pick in the bottom left region, and they lost to eventual regional champion Florida Atlantic in the first round. This year, I boldly picked New Mexico to the Final Four (oodles more embarrassing first round result), but can Clemson do the same thing to me?!
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