If democrats wins Texas, will the GOP ever win the presidency again within 50 years? (user search)
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  If democrats wins Texas, will the GOP ever win the presidency again within 50 years? (search mode)
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Question: If democrats wins Texas, will the GOP ever wins the presidency again within 50 years?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: If democrats wins Texas, will the GOP ever win the presidency again within 50 years?  (Read 3007 times)
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

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« on: May 27, 2020, 07:20:17 PM »

Of course. When a thread like this came up previously, I set out three possible paths for them: 

Quote
Let's suppose demographic changes push TX + AZ + GA into the Democratic column (which, in addition to the Hillary 2016 states, would be a 298-240 EV win for the Democrats on the 2024 map). How does the GOP respond? I can think of a few ways:

1. Become more competitive with minorities

Perhaps the GOP manages to appeal to Asians or white Hispanics or whoever. If they do this, they should at least keep TX (and probably also GA and AZ) out of the 'Safe D' column, so their current path to 270 would still be viable.

2. Become more competitive with moderate whites

This would be necessary if TX (and AZ and GA) move out of reach. The first states to fall with this path would be MN + NH + ME-AL; however, that still yields a 283-255 win for the Democrats. However, I can see them making further gains in places like New England, especially if they moderate on the 'religious right' stuff (or if the Democrats' increasingly minority-centric coalition leads to anti-whiteness in their ranks, which they fail to tackle effectively). If the GOP can win something like ME-01 + RI + DE + OR, then that gets them to 270-268.

3. Ride their own wave of demographic change

As in scenario #2, the GOP is winning MN + NH + ME-AL, getting them to 255 electoral votes. The remaining 15 will come from demographic changes which are in their favour. If liberals and minorities are moving to the Sun Belt in large enough numbers to put TX + AZ + GA out of reach, then they're moving from somewhere, and the places they're moving from will become more conservative as a result. For example, perhaps Chicago's population drops to the point where IL becomes competitive - and then, the GOP gets over 270 by flipping it.



Do note that, in the map where Democrats are winning 283-255 (that is, 2016 + TX + AZ + GA - MN - NH - ME-AL), they're only winning 20 states to the GOP's 30. If the Democrats rely on this coalition, then they're going to have a serious Senate problem - so the GOP will still be able to exert a lot of influence even if they fall short of winning the presidency.

Or, by way of communitarianism (the current place the GOP is trending, for example Hawley), start winning larger percentages of the black vote. By putting M4AC and inner city revitalization on the platform I'm sure republicans could start winning about 20-30% of the black vote. This would put IL in play, as well as NY eventually.
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