arkansas

[WalterMitty]

why did obama do so poorly here?

yes i understand the race factor.

but still...arkanasas ihas historically been one of the more democrat friendly states in the deep south.

didnt all the pre election polls show arkansas at mccain +5-10?

[Holmes]

Probably because he's a black liberal. The only democrats ever to win Arkansas were conservative ones anyway...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Probably because he's a black liberal. The only democrats ever to win Arkansas were conservative ones anyway...

Roosevelt?  Stevenson?  Kennedy?

[Stranger in a strange land]

It was also one of the few states where Obama set up no organization at all and never visited once, not even in the primary.

[Lunar]

Let's just say the message of "change" doesn't fly  in the upper South/Appalachia while the Republican message of "he  hangs out with terrorists" does quite well.

And probably everything bad Hillary and Bill ever said about Obama was never forgotten.

[jokerman]

And remember, McCain was not a bad candidate for Arkansas at all, in terms of personality and temperament.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Because Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

[Franzl]

Because Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

More or less.....yeah..

but it's not quite that simple....racism may be the underlying reason, but people there tend to be much more likely to believe false rumors....like Obama being a muslim...or not understanding what "socialism" really is. And considering Obama never visited the state, people didn't challenge the rumors. People living in states in which Obama spent a little time....whether in person or in advertizing....weren't as prone to manipulation.

Of course....it's also likely that people were just looking for a reason to oppose him....in Arkansas quite likely due to race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

Obama probably didn't do all that much better with whites in your own state than in Arkansas (not really had a proper look at county data yet, so can't be entirely sure) and it's certain that he did worse if you ignore the area around Durham and places like that generally.

[Aizen]

Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Because Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

More or less.....yeah..

but it's not quite that simple....racism may be the underlying reason, but people there tend to be much more likely to believe false rumors....like Obama being a muslim...or not understanding what "socialism" really is. And considering Obama never visited the state, people didn't challenge the rumors. People living in states in which Obama spent a little time....whether in person or in advertizing....weren't as prone to manipulation.

Of course....it's also likely that people were just looking for a reason to oppose him....in Arkansas quite likely due to race.

low education levels are the key factor here. A lot of people I know parroted the "Obama is a socialist" line, but when I asked them "why is he a socialist?" or "If Obama's economic policies are socialist, then how is Alaska's shared ownership of resources not socialist?" They would usually be stumped and unable to respond except with screaming and cursing.

[Gustaf]

Now, I seem to recall that there was a political family with strong roots in Arkansas that may have impacted the results, but I can't quite recall the name...Stanton or something like that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now, I seem to recall that there was a political family with strong roots in Arkansas that may have impacted the results, but I can't quite recall the name...Stanton or something like that?

Clinham?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Because Arkansas is a racist state. End of story.

Obama probably didn't do all that much better with whites in your own state than in Arkansas (not really had a proper look at county data yet, so can't be entirely sure) and it's certain that he did worse if you ignore the area around Durham and places like that generally.

not true: Obama overperformed Kerry almost everywhere in North Carolina, even in heavily white rural counties (if only slightly), the types of areas that trended heavily against him in Arkansas.

and THIS:





is explicable mainly by the fact that Obama spent a crapload of money in North Carolina and almost none in Arkansas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Careful, know. Read what I wrote. I mentioned swing not once.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, let's compare Virginia and North Carolina (just for fun):





How much did he spend in the two states?

[Franzl]

Well, let's compare Virginia and North Carolina (just for fun):





How much did he spend in the two states?

and what purpose does that comparison serve?

[Stranger in a strange land]

well, it seems the coalfield counties swung harder against Obama than other parts of Appalachia did, indicating that the swing against him in that region may not have been entirely due to race.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, let's compare Virginia and North Carolina (just for fun):





How much did he spend in the two states?

and what purpose does that comparison serve?

It's in regards to the money argument.  Obama spent a fair amount of money in both VA and NC, but none in AR.

[Josh/Devilman88]

[Franzl]

Well, let's compare Virginia and North Carolina (just for fun):





How much did he spend in the two states?

and what purpose does that comparison serve?

It's in regards to the money argument.  Obama spent a fair amount of money in both VA and NC, but none in AR.

ah, ok. That's true.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Does anyone know of a site where we can find out how much Obama spent per state?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Exit poll gives Obama 30% of Arkansas whites and 35% of NC whites.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit poll gives Obama 30% of Arkansas whites and 35% of NC whites.

Which isn't really big enough a gap to be sure of all that much (especially when margin of error and the usual issues with exit poll data are considered). Thanks for being the only person to have replied so far to get what I was getting at, btw...

[Meeker]

Yea, Al's on the right track. Arkansas whites are no more or less racist than whites in other similar parts of the south.

If Obama had spent a crap load of money in Arkansas like he did in North Carolina and Virginia and to some extent Georgia he probably could've done a lot better. He chose not to, and thus did not do well there.

The Clintons being from there also probably cost him a 1-2% personal vote.