Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Tender Branson]

CNN says GOP+7

GOP: 52%
DEM: 45%

That 7-point advantage is up from a 3-point margin last month.

Republicans also have a large and growing advantage among independents. 62 percent of independents questioned say they would vote for the generic Republican in their district, with three in 10 saying they'd cast a ballot for the generic Democrat. That 32-point margin for the Republicans among independents is up from an 8-point advantage last month.

What will the "Obama factor" be in November? The poll indicates that most say that their vote for Congress will not be intended as a message for the president.

24 percent say their vote will be in opposition to Obama; with one in five saying their vote will be a message of support for the president. In 2006, anti-Bush voters outnumbered pro-Bush voters by more than two-to-one.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/06/midterm.poll

[Tender Branson]

Gallup can hardly be correct as shown in my thread there:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125997.msg2685829#msg2685829

If the Republicans sweep the Senate elections with ridiculously huge margins (see second chart), then it is GOP+12, but I don´t see GOP+17 ...

Based on current polls it`s about R+6 ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup can hardly be correct as shown in my thread there:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125997.msg2685829#msg2685829

If the Republicans sweep the Senate elections with ridiculously huge margins (see second chart), then it is GOP+12, but I don´t see GOP+17 ...

Based on current polls it`s about R+6 ...

You are just reverse engineering the poll numbers, which will not assist you in dealing with the matter of whether there will be disproportionate partisan turnout models, which get more disproportionate as the turnout declines. Using a 76% figure, translates into a 43.2% turnout (.76*.568.  Per my link, most polls seem to be assuming a higher turnout than that; well at least Gallup's low turnout number is 40%, and high turnout number is 55%, and 43% is a lot closer to 40%.  What turnout level other polls are assuming, I don't know.  

Nope, it´s not 43% turnout like you said. You cannot calculate it that way.

For example in 2006 the turnout was 80.6 Mio. out of 220.6 Mio. people aged 18+, according to your link.

My prediction of 76% is relative to absolute numbers, not relative to relative numbers - that´s the big difference.

My turnout model predicts 79.053 Mio. voters, which would be roughly 34% of the estimated 235 Mio. people aged 18 or older this year.

[Tender Branson]

Based on my House numbers, the final House popular vote will be somewhere around 52-45-3 GOP

Yeah, that would be similar to the Senate Popular Vote, which was 49.5 to 44.9 so far for the Republicans.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G10/SenateVoteByParty.phtml

Green Papers says the House vote was 52.2 to 44.6 so far.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G10/HouseVoteByParty.phtml

So, Gallup - like in 2008 - was far off again.

[Tender Branson]

Mine is right now 52.1 to 44.7, but I've been updating the later vote returns more quickly.

As for the Senate, that would make sense.  Cycle III is the cycle that is most even between the parties based on present voting patterns (Cycle I leans Dem and Cycle II leans GOP)

Therefore the Generic Congressional Ballot (Average of Senate and House Ballot) was GOP+6

The best Generic Ballot pollsters were Reuters/Ipsos (R+6), Pew Research (R+6), CBS News/NY Times (R+6) and McClatchy/Marist (R+6).

The worst were Gallup (R+15), FOX News (R+13), Rasmussen (R+12) and Newsweek (D+3).

[Tender Branson]

Mine is right now 52.1 to 44.7, but I've been updating the later vote returns more quickly.

As for the Senate, that would make sense.  Cycle III is the cycle that is most even between the parties based on present voting patterns (Cycle I leans Dem and Cycle II leans GOP)

Therefore the Generic Congressional Ballot (Average of Senate and House Ballot) was GOP+6

The best Generic Ballot pollsters were Reuters/Ipsos (R+6), Pew Research (R+6), CBS News/NY Times (R+6) and McClatchy/Marist (R+6).

The worst were Gallup (R+15), FOX News (R+13), Rasmussen (R+12) and Newsweek (D+3).

Just fyi, but Generic ballot polls mean only the generic House ballot for rather obvious reasons.

Technically yes, but some pollsters doesn't seem to get it - like Rasmussen.

They ask: "Are you going to vote for the DEM or GOP candidate in this years congressional elections ?" instead of "In your district, are you going to vote for the DEM or GOP candidate in this years congressional elections ?"