Scottish National Party leadership election, 2024

[afleitch]

In immediate post-Sturgeon polling, Swinney was 2019 SNP voters preferred choice. Personally, I wanted Swinney to run too.

His standing in the party is solid (and Forbes standing has declined; that's certainly the feeling I get from the membership)

From a media engagement perspective, he's a good choice (though they'll try anyway)

But I agree it's a personal decision if he does, not a political one.

[afleitch]

It's probable that the party has a Depute leader election before 2026 (and they don't have to be 'of Holyrood' to stand); someone who is expected to get in, in 2026 potentially Stephen Flynn. He can stand in Aberdeen but have a chance at the NE list.

That way when 2026 rolls round if the SNP find themselves out of power, they can have an ordinary leadership contest. If they find themselves in power and Swinney is done, they can maneuver the Depute into the leadership/FM role.

[afleitch]

I don’t know. "Elect the Leader, get his replacement" are very poor optics for the 2026 elections - especially given a stitch-up for the Depute to succeed him might be unsuccessful.

Running a campaign led by a tired Swinney, with the promise that he’d be gone within months and replaced by the activists’ choice, just seems like a terrible message to swing voters - and a curt dismissal of their role in choosing our First Minister.

They aren't 'poor optics' if it's clear from the start point (i.e now) that that's going to be the case. Voters aren't stupid; they can understand arrangements of that nature in advance (a sort of reverse 2007.)

[afleitch]

Given that Forbes' most vocal backers (though there aren't that many at present) are briefing against Swinney this morning suggests there may be a contest. Or is just a bit of chest thumping.

Maybe Forbes thinks she can win with the membership. If she doesn't, her 2026 ambitions are sunk.

[afleitch]

IMO Swinney had quite a strong media session at the launch.

[afleitch]

Ipsos did do polling of the public and SNP 2019 voters.

There's very little difference in terms of public support (they both out poll Anas Sarwar by comparison)

Swinney's net favourables across age groups is broadly the same. Forbes' favourables are worse amongst those under the age of 55 (and negative with younger voters) but three times higher than Swinney with over 55's.

There's also very little difference with SNP 2019 voters, the only key difference is Forbes with significantly higher disapprovals than any other SNP name mentioned.

So she suffers as she did before from poor approvals from SNP voters or voter pool and high approvals from demographics less likely to vote SNP.

[afleitch]

Lovely.

She'll be back no doubt, but not quite yet.

[afleitch]

A few points worth noting about the man. Under Swinney's first leadership, the SNP was perceived as insufficiently left wing (Alex Neil, then being on the 'left' of the party was his challenger in 2000 and Bill Wilson who challenged him in 2003 is now in the Greens)

He was also a 'gradualist'; at that time advocating independence only by referendum (rather than self declaration) which ultimately prevailed as the structure in which to advocate for independence. Regardless of frustration post 2014 it remains the only formal, internationally recognisable way it can be done as long as the British state continues to function.

Swinney's tenure saw a complete overhaul of the party structure and voting system (one member one vote rather than delegate voting) and moving away from effectively autonomous constituency based operations, which in many ways contributed to later organisational and electorate success, but also some consternation with the awkward squad.

While he has the same present backers as Humza and the same opponents as he personally did 20 years ago, many of whom are currently out of influence, he is not 'continuity' Salmond-Sturgeon-Yousaf.

He is 100% a 'party man'. That he was able to embed in the administrations after his own loss of the leadership is testament to that.

Whether that cuts through with the public is another matter.

[afleitch]

If he hasn't got the numbers, he will now given the media attention he's got.

Either way he'll get a month of Very Serious Journalist attention, but he is not a party figure, is likely to get tanked at the vote which if anything would be a greater endorsement of Swinney by the membership, simply by way of having a vote as opposed to none.

Either way Humza continues for a month.