Scottish National Party leadership election, 2024

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SNP NEC will meet later in the week to agree a timetable. First parliamentary endorsements already here, before either primary candidate has ruled themselves in-or-out.

John Swinney:

• Keith Brown MSP (SNP Depute Leader)
• Neil Gray (Health Secretary)
• Stephen Flynn MP (Westminster Group Leader)
• Jenny Gilruth MSP (Education Secretary)
• Mairi McAllan MSP (Economy and Energy Secretary)
• Maree Todd MSP (Minister for Social Care)
• Christina McKelvie MSP (Minister for Drug & Alcohol Policy)
• Emma Roddick MSP (Minister for Equalities)
• Graeme Dey MSP (Minister for Veterans)
• Rona Mackay MSP
• Kevin Stewart MSP
• Maree Todd MSP
• James Dornan MSP
• Elena Whitham MSP
• Evelyn Tweed MSP
• Ian Blackford MP
• Alyn Smith MP
• Pete Wishart MP
• Chris Law MP
• Drew Hendry MP
• Amy Callaghan MP
• Owen Thompson MP
• Tommy Sheppard MP

Kate Forbes:

• Fergus Ewing MSP
• Annabelle Ewing MSP
• Michelle Thomson MSP
• Jim Fairlie MSP
• David Torrance MSP
• Ivan McKee MSP
• Siobhan Brown MSP
• Christine Grahame MSP
• Joanna Cherry MP
• Carol Monaghan MP

Nominations are now open - and will remain so until noon on Monday, May 6th.

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I've said elsewhere that Swinney leading a cabinet with both Yousaf's inner circle, and the Forbes wing is probably the easier road to a coronation, and a return to normality. He's released a statement saying he's "seriously considering" running, but is off to go consult with his family before reaching a decision.

I don't think it's a given he runs for the permanent position, which would include helming two high-stakes elections. Swinney tried to retire from the frontbench several times, and was stopped by various crises, most latterly COVID.

His wife has advanced multiple sclerosis, and has spoken of her health anxiety during the pandemic. Given how many times he's been called upon to ride to the party's rescue, I would not blame him if he decides to let someone else take over.

He probably will stand though - on past performance.

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Assuming he becomes leader is John Swinney going to want to lead the SNP into the 2026 Holyrood election?

This is what gets me about his candidacy - Swinney will have been a frontbencher for 18 of the SNP’s 19 years in power by 2026. When he stood down from the cabinet, it looked like he might not even run for Parliament again, let alone return to cabinet.

He’s even grimly joked about wanting to leave the frontbench since 2016, but getting dragged back in to resolve various crises. He declined to run last year specifically citing his long tenure in office last time, and all the “it’s time for a new generation” stuff.  

Would we see another leadership race in/before 2026?

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I don’t know. "Elect the Leader, get his replacement" are very poor optics for the 2026 elections - especially given a stitch-up for the Depute to succeed him might be unsuccessful.

Running a campaign led by a tired Swinney, with the promise that he’d be gone within months and replaced by the activists’ choice, just seems like a terrible message to swing voters - and a curt dismissal of their role in choosing our First Minister.

Imagine the Tories, led by a weary Ian Duncan Smith, running an election campaign with Alicia Kearns and Suella Braverman both publicly jostling to succeed him within weeks of the election. It just doesn’t seem like the actions of a serious party.

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I wonder if it would be better to replace him after the general election and then hold a leadership election during 2025 ready for 2026?

I think going *again* in 2025 would be pretty hard to justify. Four First Ministers in one parliament just seems unthinkable, and cuts such an awful contrast with the 9 years of iron discipline that preceded it.

In the event of an SNP meltdown, how much of the vote do we think will go to Alba/Greens and how much to Labour? Are marginal SNP voters still strong believers in the independence cause and unwilling to go to Labour bc of it or are they more willing to stick with people potentially closer with their other policy beliefs?

That's the million dollar question. Labour's recovery in the polls appears (if you believe the crosstabs) to initially have been built on SNP apathy and unionist tactical defections from the Tories. They seem to be picking up more SNP votes now, (and would benefit from a comprehensive implosion), but there's 30-35% of the electorate who are off-limits to them now, due to their constitutional position.

As a general guideline Greens don't poll above an average of 10%, and Alba never break 5% - if the SNP dip below the 32-33% that seems to be their floor right now, I imagine the nationalist vote would begin to filter through to those other parties. But the SNP vote has stayed fairly loyal - even now they still lead Holyrood polling by 2-5%.

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They aren't 'poor optics' if it's clear from the start point (i.e now) that that's going to be the case. Voters aren't stupid; they can understand arrangements of that nature in advance (a sort of reverse 2007.)

Come on man, you're willfully missing my point. Your suggestion is that the party of government should engage in a game of musical chairs, switching constituencies and crossing their fingers in the hope that they can force the hierarchy's third favoured candidate through the third leadership race in three years.

Of course I'm not saying voters are too dumb to understand that - quite the opposite. I think they'll see right through it, for the self-indulgent circus it would be.

If you can't find a viable, long-term candidate for the leadership among your 63 MSPs, despite two decades of national dominance, there's only one party at fault...

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Forbes has been doing a few interviews and sounds like she will run. There’s enough wiggle room to allow her to back out last minute, but she’s clearly pushing back against a coronation, against a caretaker first minister, and talking about how much support she has in the party/country.

I go back and forth whether she’s actually gearing up to run, or trying to make her candidacy look credible so she can be bought off with a cabinet post. She and Swinney aren’t close (all reports suggest he was furious at her criticisms of the SNP’s record in the first leadership debate back in 2023), so she’d need leverage to make up for a lack of goodwill.

I note that, reversing her previous position, she voted to advance the abortion-clinic buffer-zone bill today, which was introduced by a Green MSP. As olive branches to the left go, it wasn’t particularly subtle - and does make me wonder…

It’ll all be academic shortly. She said in her Sky News interview on Tuesday afternoon that she’d announce her decision within 24 hours. So we should know whether this is a race or a coronation by Wednesday lunchtime.

Edit: Forbes allies now downplaying her previous commitment to announce a decision today, saying it's "only 48 hours since Humza Yousaf resigned". If she does run, I doubt we'll hear before today's confidence vote, in case it gets weaponised during the Holyrood debate.

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State of play:

• Swinney and Forbes secretly met in Holyrood on Tues to try and hammer out a compromise. Confirmed by Forbes camp in last few minutes they met, but spun as "an informal chat" with no outcomes.
• Forbes spent Wed morning making odd noises about drawing up policy, and gathering a team for "if she runs" - keeps implying she's inclined to, but may be biddable to a better offer.
• Publicly, both candidates continue to claim they are undecided about standing. Swinney says he "will not be rushed".
• Noon on Thurs is First Minister's Questions - opposition likely to lampoon chaos/lack of enthusiasm etc if no one has entered the ring by then.

The campaign timeline has been announced:

• Nominations (100, from 20 party branches) close on Monday 6th of May at 5pm.
• Leadership ballot open 13th-27th May

Assuming we don't wake up tomorrow to a joint editorial from our new designated FM and Depute FM (still a fair possibility), I'm starting to wonder whether Swinney genuinely doesn't want it, and is just being used as the "stop Kate" candidate, that some have briefed out.

The thought I can't shake, is that if he can convince her to rule herself out, he could also withdraw, and endorse some member of the new guard, in an attempted rug-pull. I know that's a bit tinfoil hat, but I'm trying to work out why else he'd refuse to jump in at this stage.

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https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1785914832262209645

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Room filling up for Swinney’s speech. Yousaf’s entire cabinet appear to be in attendance in the front row, and the slogan is “unite for independence”. It’s very continuity - everyone who told us it “has to be Humza” is here.

Swinney puts emphasis on economic growth and eliminating child poverty. Mentions Forbes by name, saying she’d have a role in his government - but in a tone that suggests she’s not yet signed up.

He says he’s “no caretaker, no interim leader” and would lead them into the 2026 elections.

Tellingly, he was introduced by Màiri McAllan, one of Sturgeon’s protégés who’ll almost certainly be lined up to follow him.

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https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1786014604197310920

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With the likely Swinney coronation, a perculiar pattern holds. For the past 34 years, every leader of the SNP has either been:

• Alex Salmond
• Alex Salmond's deputy
• Alex Salmond's assistant

Incredible how long a shadow he casts.

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So what role can Kate Forbes look forward to in John Swinney's cabinet? Presumably her old position as Cabinet Secretary for Finance along with the enhanced prestige of being Deputy First Minister too?    

Feels like it, given the other options:

• Health is a poisoned chalice.
• Rural Affairs is a demotion she’s already declined.
• Education and Justice are big portfolios, but putting Forbes there would trigger kickback from the Greens and the SNP-left.
• Energy/Net Zero is a possibility, given she’d be able to recast herself as a champion of green energy as a vehicle for economic growth. But this is McAllan’s role, and they’re not going to fire/demote her, given she’ll be the party’s challenger against Forbes next time.
• Social Justice (housing, local government) is possible, but not prestigious. It’s also got responsibility for the Equalities minister, which again would inflame certain people.
• Transport would let her do the Highland infrastructures stuff she and her allies want, but would be hamstrung by the parliamentary arithmetic. The SNP right and the Tories want the A96 dualled, the Greens have ruled out voting for it. And no competent politician would want to take ownership of the ferry fiasco.
• Constitution, Culture and External Affairs is just an excuse to go abroad and have fancy dinners with businessmen and politicians - and still seems to be Angus Robertson’s retirement plan.

Getting Finance and Deputy FM means she’d get back to the heart of government, and have the chance to stand in for FMQs and the like.

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SNP activist Graeme McCormick is still apparently searching around for the nominations to challenge Swinney.

Unlikely to be successful, of course, but wanted to include it here - given the intriguing parallels with Swinney’s 2003 run-off with a party activist who challenged him for the leadership.

Everything about Swinney’s putative leadership has a parallel from 20 years ago, somehow.

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Exactly. Swinney will win the ballot for First Minister without bother (Tories and Lib Dems are both standing in the ballot to get some free airtime in Holyrood, which means the SNP could win without Green votes if they wanted to).

The only fly in the ointment for the SNP is that they might have to wait until the end of the month to crown Swinney - McCormick is now telling the Herald that he’s got the votes to run.

So, unless he’s full of BS (very possible) we could end up with a month of psychodrama, while the consensus candidate is dragged around the country to attend hustings with an old crank best known for his… unique rants at SNP party conference (last year he described his own party’s record in government as being like “flatulence in a trance”, whatever that means).

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Oh well - it was fun while it lasted.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1787225770173092210
I do have some thoughts about coronations and CL’s post I’d like to ruminate more on, but today’s been too busy for more than the odd update and one-liner. Might try and follow up on that tomorrow.

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Humza Yousaf resignation statement expected in the chamber at 14.20.

Vote for the First Minister set for around 15.00.

Greens have confirmed they’ll abstain on Swinney’s nomination.