VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[libertpaulian]

How do things bode for the state legislature?

[libertpaulian]

It's time!

[libertpaulian]

EXITS

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.20b245224bad

So, Northam has slightly underperformed Clinton with non-whites, but he's improved greatly among her numbers with whites.

He also did a bit better with her with college educated voters and did more or less the same with non-educated voters compared to her.

He's done way better than Clinton with middle class voters ($50K-$100K).

He also has more unanimity with Democratic voters.  However, Gillespie has also done better with his fellow Republicans than Trump did.  Northam got more liberals than Clinton did, but simultaneously, Gillespie got more conservatives.


Northam got 62% of late deciders.  Clinton got 45% of late deciders.

Interestingly enough, 17% of those who disapprove of Governor McAuliffe voted for Northam anyway!!

Northam got 69% of NOVA, while Clinton got 62%.  Northam got 47% of Central VA, while Clinton got 42%.  Northam got 61% of Hampton Roads, while Clinton got 54%. 

Yeah, this one will be fun to watch.

[libertpaulian]

Northam outperformed Clinton in NOVA, Central VA, and Hampton Roads.

It's over.

[libertpaulian]

The fact that Gillespie and Northam are this close with only 10% in says a lot.

[libertpaulian]

How's that one HOD race going?  The one where the trans lady is running?

[libertpaulian]

When do Pennsylvania polls close?  I want to know how much Larry Krasner wins by in Philly.

[libertpaulian]

They've just called it for Northam.

[libertpaulian]

Northam leads 53%-46%...that's Obama's 2008 margin in VA.  Wow.

[libertpaulian]

Gillespie is significantly underperforming Vogel and Adams. A great blow against resentful white identity politics. Thank you Virginia!

Where have YOU been?!  I haven't seen you post in almost a year!

[libertpaulian]

Brucer Rauner, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan are probably quaking in their boots right now, especially Bruce.

[libertpaulian]

Brucer Rauner, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan are probably quaking in their boots right now, especially Bruce.

Baker is popular in MA....he is safe.

The Dems are very likely to pick up the VA HOD...there is no such thing as "safe" if you're a Trump-era Republican.

[libertpaulian]

Charlotte, NC elected its first black woman mayor (who I assume is a Dem).

Northam wins and Dems make gains in the VA HOD.

Murphy picks up the NJ seat for the Dems, and the Dems are likely to increase their margins in the NJ legislature.

De Blasio wins re-election.

Larry Krasner wins the DA spot in Philly.

The first female (Dem) mayor elected in Manchester, NH.


If I was a Republican, tonight would be misery for me.

[libertpaulian]

If Non-Swing Voter hadn't terminated his account, I'm sure he'd be on here gloating "Toldja so!" every day for the rest of forever.

[libertpaulian]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

[libertpaulian]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

It would still be blue because of NOVA. NOVA isn't just socially liberal, it's also economically liberal because a lot of their jobs... literally depend on the government. It's been trending blue since a while now (Kerry got fairly close in 2004 and Bush wasn't crazy about immigration).

Well, at the very least, it would be a truly purple state.  It isn't just NOVA.  Henrico County and the Tidewater are contributing to VA's blueness also.