2005/6 Predictions

[Ben.]

I think I’ve been here before, but what the hey, for once it looks like while there are a number of democrats looking at tougher than ideal re-election battles most will survive while at the same time there are a string of vulnerable republican incumbents, so overall the gubernatorial races should be good for the Democrats (I’d expect most the senate race to be boringly uneventful, with the exception of PA and perhaps OH)…

Dark RED/BLUE – Incumbent Hold
Light RED/BLUE – Challenger Gain  

  

Republicans – Gains: 1 , Losses 5.
Democrats – Gains: 5, Losses 1.    

[Ben.]

He has Florida missing on that map.

He assumes it's so safe Republican that he doesn't even need to make a  prediction. 

Sorry bout that, I missed Florida, personally I don’t know too much bout the race itself though from what I’ve read the GOP are seriously out fundraising the Democrats so far and neither side has a darn candidate yet (!)

While with Harris the likely GOP nominee for Senate, I’d expect Nelson to hang on to his senate seat, the gubernatorial race does not look promising for the Florida Dems.

From what I know I expect it to be Crist vs Davis and for Crist to win by a convincing margin.

[Ben.]

Apparently Riley is likely to get through the AL GOP primary, just.

Yay!

Harris will spank Nelson in the senate race.

Mason-Dixon would beg to differ

Harris will struggle after the GOP primary, the GOP base love her but the voters at large just don't like her, i wouldn't write off her chances but she is a definate under dog against Nelson. 

[Ben.]

Bump -does anyone want to change or stand by their predictions?

Not really, with it looking like Romney will not run for re-election in MA, I’d call that state as Dem pickup, mean while I stand by my main calls that Dems pickup NY, OH and AL with other likely pickups in AR and MD… but I’m still betting that Arnie holds on CA.

I will say that Rendell won’t have an easy re-election IMHO, but he’ll still win meanwhile WI and MI will be closer and WI might flip to the GOP but at the moment the most promising and indeed possibly the only GOP pickup looks like being Iowa.     


Meaning a nation picture that in early 2007 looks something like this...



…and taking into account, the effects of Katrina and existing trends that means that prior to the presidential race in 2008 things look something like…



…I just don’t know if Katrina will do for Blanco, and I think Barbour will face Mike Moore in 07 and he just isn’t going to beat such a popular Democrat in an off year election IMHO, meanwhile in Kentucky Fletcher is done and with him the state GOP if he runs for re-election any half decent Dem will beat him by a solid margin, even if he doesn’t run the race will still lean to the Dems.   

[Ben.]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

[Ben.]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

Rell is not just popular. The woman had approval ratings in the 80s!

Then I'd be happy to say easy GOP hold

[Ben.]

I like the look of all those southern Democrat governors!!!

It takes the leap that Blanco is still competative by 07... which she should be and that Moore or even Taylor runs in MS.