2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

He forgot to mention the part where voting intention is increased at every level and the youth vote is lagging the most by far.

Percentage of voters that are not definitely or probably voting in midterms, by age:
- 18-29 23%
- 30-44 16%
- 45-64 10%
- 65+ 3%

Older people are significantly outvoting younger people. In fact, the difference in voting intentions favors republicans across every demographic. It’s the same thing we saw in Virginia/New Jersey and it’s why Biden’s popularity matters immensely

Well, yeah though. Older people always outvote younger demographics. That's not anything new, so it really just depends on the exact numbers. Older voters can outvote younger votes all day, but if the youth vote is say, even on par or a few % more than it has been in the past, that's a huge deal, given the margins.

Youth vote will always lag. Always. For the rest of time lol.

I do think though pollsters need to stop asking 'enthusiastic' to vote and basing models around that. Especially with young people - if I asked those who I know *will 100%* vote this fall whether they're 'enthusiastic' to do it, probably all of them will say no, that's not the right word at all. But they're still going to vote no matter what. Just a bad barometer. Just ask people how sure they are and base it off of that.

[Gracile]

National Journal released their rankings of the top 20 House seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/718341/ihotlineis-2022-house-power-rankings/

1. WI-03 (Open)
2. MI-10 (Open)
3. AZ-02 (D, O'Halleran)
4. AZ-06 (Open)
5. TX-15 (Open)
6. IA-03 (Axne)
7. NJ-07 (Malinowski)
8. PA-07 (Wild)
9. MI-07 (Slotkin)
10. MI-08 (Kildee)
11. CA-22 (Valadao)
12. VA-02 (Luria)
13. OH-09 (Kaptur)
14. ME-02 (Golden)
15. IL-17 (Open)
16. PA-08 (Cartwright)
17. MI-03 (Meijer)
18. PA-17 (Open)
19. NV-03 (Lee)
20. NY-22 (Open)

All of these districts are highly vulnerable (and the Democratic-held ones especially will likely flip), but the ordering of these rankings and some omissions (TN-05, GA-06, the two D-held Florida districts that were made more Republican in redistricting - although they might see those ones as givens already - as well as seats like CA-27 and IL-13 which are more Democratic than the D seats on here) don't make a lot of sense.

[Devils30]

National Journal released their rankings of the top 20 House seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/718341/ihotlineis-2022-house-power-rankings/

1. WI-03 (Open)
2. MI-10 (Open)
3. AZ-02 (D, O'Halleran)
4. AZ-06 (Open)
5. TX-15 (Open)
6. IA-03 (Axne)
7. NJ-07 (Malinowski)
8. PA-07 (Wild)
9. MI-07 (Slotkin)
10. MI-08 (Kildee)
11. CA-22 (Valadao)
12. VA-02 (Luria)
13. OH-09 (Kaptur)
14. ME-02 (Golden)
15. IL-17 (Open)
16. PA-08 (Cartwright)
17. MI-03 (Meijer)
18. PA-17 (Open)
19. NV-03 (Lee)
20. NY-22 (Open)

All of these districts are highly vulnerable (and the Democratic-held ones especially will likely flip), but the ordering of these rankings and some omissions (TN-05, GA-06, the two D-held Florida districts that were made more Republican in redistricting - although they might see those ones as givens already - as well as seats like CA-27 and IL-13 which are more Democratic than the D seats on here) don't make a lot of sense.

Funny thing is how you can sort of see how it would fall apart for GOP. If Kelly, Hobbs win in AZ against a very extreme GOP ticket, they probably carry AZ-6, Whitmer could easily win MI-10 and Mastriano is a problem in PA-7,8.

[wesmoorenerd]

National Journal released their rankings of the top 20 House seats most likely to flip:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/718341/ihotlineis-2022-house-power-rankings/

1. WI-03 (Open)
2. MI-10 (Open)
3. AZ-02 (D, O'Halleran)
4. AZ-06 (Open)
5. TX-15 (Open)
6. IA-03 (Axne)
7. NJ-07 (Malinowski)
8. PA-07 (Wild)
9. MI-07 (Slotkin)
10. MI-08 (Kildee)
11. CA-22 (Valadao)
12. VA-02 (Luria)
13. OH-09 (Kaptur)
14. ME-02 (Golden)
15. IL-17 (Open)
16. PA-08 (Cartwright)
17. MI-03 (Meijer)
18. PA-17 (Open)
19. NV-03 (Lee)
20. NY-22 (Open)

All of these districts are highly vulnerable (and the Democratic-held ones especially will likely flip), but the ordering of these rankings and some omissions (TN-05, GA-06, the two D-held Florida districts that were made more Republican in redistricting - although they might see those ones as givens already - as well as seats like CA-27 and IL-13 which are more Democratic than the D seats on here) don't make a lot of sense.

Pretty good, but a little too friendly to the Rs at this juncture. I'd swap in Chabot and Garcia for IL-17  and Lee.

[wbrocks67]

A few more GCB polls today-

Big Village: D+4 (46-42) - same as their last poll last week

Harris Poll: tied (50-50) - same as their last poll end of June

OnMessage (R pollster): R+1 (45-44) - down from R+5 their last poll beginning of July

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not prepared to list the H is gone until EDay they said the samething that the Senate was gone and we are certainly can wind up with 52 or more seats you never know we gotta see what happens in FL 13 but it's a tough cycle for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-bolton-trump-poison-political-suicide_n_62e737a0e4b0c60a56695fb8

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

> OH

I mean....maybe?

> PA

Oh, no surprise there. 

> NC

....huh?

[Ferguson97]

This is bait to get Democrats to spend money in races they can't win (NC and OH).

[Senator Incitatus]

John has been smuggling cocaine in that mustache of his again.

[Minnesota Mike]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

[Alben Barkley]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

[Alben Barkley]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Except it didn't in 2018 or even 2014 or really any election without Trump. Sometimes even underestimated Democrats. And the crosstabs support it (terrible Biden approvals among young Democratic voters for instance). Like, some of the very same polls finding Biden deep underwater are also finding Democratic candidates comfortably ahead. Literally the exact same polls, same sample of people saying they disapprove of Biden yet will vote for Democrats. How else do you explain that? It's not "hackery" to logically analyze the numbers instead of just knee jerk dooming.

[Politician]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Plus, Republicans are actually doing fine on the generic ballot excluding crap RV polls.

I get Atlas is going to live in denial and thinks 2022 will be a D+1 year or something, but it's not going to happen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Except it didn't in 2018 or even 2014 or really any election without Trump. Sometimes even underestimated Democrats. And the crosstabs support it (terrible Biden approvals among young Democratic voters for instance). Like, some of the very same polls finding Biden deep underwater are also finding Democratic candidates comfortably ahead. Literally the exact same polls. How else do you explain that? It's not "hackery" to logically analyze the numbers instead of just knee jerk dooming.

Yes it did in 2018, 2014. In 2014 Joni Ernst, Bruce Rauner, Thom Tillis, Rick Scott, Paul LePage and countless others overperformed their polling. In 2018, DeSantis was behind in most polls, sometimes by 5 points or more and still won. Scott Walker was behind by 5-7 points and lost by like 1-2. Need I go on?

[wbrocks67]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

No, it's pure hackery to ignore the numbers.

You don't think there's a correlation between the same polls having Biden -30 approval with 18-34 year old for example, but then being up +20-30 with that same demo in the GCB for Dems? This is not that hard to understand.

People are just not use to it because people were more hardened in their views during Trump and his supporters did not operate the same way that Biden supporters are. Don't be dense.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB at D+6, 45-39

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-americans-favor-manchin-schumer-climate-deal-by-wide-margins-183249029.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs can forget about a 245 H and 54 R Senate that's not happening

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/Politico has GCB at D+2, 45-43

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/02220328/2207195_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-03-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1554820060845379584

[wbrocks67]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

[Sir Mohamed]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

If that was just true and held up till November 8. Let's defy history and defeat the extremist GOP! I can still dream, can I?

[wbrocks67]

The RV sample is more realistic in the same poll, has D+3 at 49-46 versus the D+7 of all adults.

But the trendline is pretty clear regardless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do you know why Rs are getting crushed among Blk and Brown and single females because they believe in tax cuts for wealthy

The sole reason why Rs improved in 2020 they gave out 2K bucks to everyone, now the Federal stimulus is OVER, now it's ENHANCED CHILD TAX CREDITS

That's why Collins won unexpectedly she negotiated stimulus checks, but now she is blocking BBB and it will come down to Sinema due to not wanting to raise taxes she will lose in 26

Vance isn't down by 14 he is down 6 he deserves to get 2 percent of the Blk vote while DeWine will get 6 percent like he did in 2018