Evidence is mounting that one traditional battleground state isn't a top target for the Romney campaign: Pennsylvania.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
Not included on the list? The Keystone State, where Obama cruised to a 10-point triumph in 2008.
The article was just the latest indication Pennsylvania isn't a top target for the former Massachusetts governor's campaign, at least not at the general election's onset. At the beginning of May, the state's own GOP chairman, Rob Gleason, said Romney told him personally that he doubted he could win the state. Gleason didn't appear to disagree vehemently.
"I don't think anyone thinks we can carry Pennsylvania, I don't think even Romney thinks we can win Pennsylvania," he told The Allentown Morning Call.
The Romney campaign's initial ad buy, which includes a pair of television spots, also won't air in Pennsylvania (although to be fair, the spots are running in only four states - Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, and he has visited the state twice since locking up the GOP nomination, according to the Hotline candidate schedule tracker).
Understanding why the GOP candidate might be skeptical about Pennsylvania isn't difficult. A Republican presidential nominee hasn't triumphed there since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and, as mentioned, Obama won easily there four years ago despite a heavy investment of time and money from the McCain campaign. The state has more than a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and an early May poll from Quinnipiac University found the president leading over Romney 47 percent to 39 percent.
When the Romney campaign assesses the electoral map, other states, even traditionally blue ones, could look more appealing. Romney, for instance, grew up in Michigan, where his father served as governor, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's expected victory in his recall election next week might signal the Badger State is poised to turn red in the fall. The two men are also locked in a dead heat in a duo of key Mountain West states, Nevada and Colorado, according to an NBC/Marist poll released Thursday.
Romney's skepticism toward Pennsylvania shouldn't be taken as an indication of weakness in his campaign -- he can still easily reach 270 electoral votes without winning there. In fact, if Romney did beat Obama in Pennsylvania, it's a likely indication that he not only won the presidential election, but he did so in a landslide. But it's an interesting representation of the electoral map's shifting ground, swinging away from predominantly white states like Pennsylvania and toward new battlegrounds in more diverse states like Virginia and Colorado.
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/05/romney-down-on-the-keystone-st.php
