Balance of Power (Gameplay Thread) - Epilogue and Game Over

[Lumine]

NOTE:

If IBDD does not post at the end of this turn, I will replace him and give Germany to a different player. I didn't want to resort to that, but two turns are more than enough and we can't have Germany doing nothing.

[Lumine]

When does this turn end?
clarence

Currently it has no limits since we have to sort out two phases of the Ottoman War, but I believe this should last until Sunday.

[Lumine]

Good, now I only need Italy and Austria-Hungary. Kalwejt's crises were mostly answered with his war choices, but he is free to post other choices if he wants to.

[Lumine]

Very well, I got all the answers and the war is over. There's a lot to consider and calculate, so next turn will start either tomorrow or Tuesday. IBDD said that he doesn't wish to keep playing as Germany, so Germany is now available if anybody is interested.

[Lumine]

French Legislative Election, 1902:

Overview:

French Prime Minister Waldeck-Rousseau entered the race with a strong push for left wing policies, but his moves were often seen as "too extreme". As a result, he seemed to have lost the middle class vote, and he looked headed to an electoral disaster despite the unity in the left (which led to a fear campaign against the Socialists). Alas, his efficient handling of the Mount Pelee eruption and the quick conclusion to the war against Abdul Hamid II led to a surge in the polls, which ended with a surprise:

Left Front: 275

Radical Party: 118 (+14)
Radical-Socialists: 71 (-3)
Socialists: 50 (-7)
Independents: 36

Independents, Others and the Opposition: 321

Monarchists: 38 (-6)
Progressive Republicans: 120 (-134)
Nationalists: 53 (+50)
Popular Liberal Action: 98 (+56)
Miscellaneous: 3 (-7)
Independents: 9

A massive swing to several parties, the Socialists took losses thanks to the terror campaign of some groups in the right, the Radical Party won seats, and the Radical Socialists lost some. The surprise was the high number of independent candidates supporting Waldeck Rousseau. On the other side, the Monarchists took some losses and the Progressives took heavy losses thanks to many Deputies becoming independents. The Popular Liberal Action and the Nationalists became major parties thanks, ironically, to Waldeck-Rousseau himself (his anti-catholic stances and his nationalist propaganda helped those parties). In the end, the opposition was too divided to form a government, and some leaders struck a deal with the Prime Minister. A coalition government of the center-left and the center-right was formed. Waldeck Rousseau, who was personally popular, stayed as Prime Minister, but he had soften his stances: end his anti religious views,  switch to soft economic views, and limit foreign adventures.

Waldeck-Rousseau got his second term as Prime Minister with the following numbers:

Concentration Républicaine (Unity Pact) 459

Radical Party: 118
Radical-Socialists: 71
Progressive Republicans: 120
Popular Liberal Action: 98
Independents: 45

Opposition: 146

Socialists: 50
Monarchists: 38
Nationalists: 53
Miscellaneous: 3

This coalition won't be easy to handle and it might not last, but for the time being, it will allow Pierre Waldeck-Rousseau to stay in office, provided he is moderate enough.

[Lumine]

End of Early 1902:

In some of the most eventful six months in living memory, the balance of power of Europe was almost destroyed, and the World Powers managed to avert a potential great war. Under false pretexts, the United Kingdom, Russia and France invaded the Ottoman Empire, aided by Arab and Balkan rebels and other small nations. Despite a brave defense, the Ottomans chose to surrender when their "allies" failed to support them, and they signed the Treaty of Jerusalem, which virtually finished the Empire's hopes of being a major power. New nations were created, like Montenegro, Armenia and Albania, and now the Middle East has a chance to gain stability... or turn into a quagmire.

President William McKinley showed an iron-fisted attitude after the death of Theodore Roosevelt, which led to a massive revolt in the Philippines. The islands were finally handed over to the Japanese, which dealt another blow to McKinley's popularity. On the other hand, Japan grows stronger and stronger, and it's now one of the leading forces in the East. While Franz Joseph I and Pierre Waldeck-Rousseau struggle to keep their governments afloat, a new face has appeared in the world stage. Shortly after the signing of the Jerusalem Treaty, a madman shot Kaiser Wilhelm II dead while giving a speech in Hamburg. Crown Prince Wilhelm has taken the throne as Kaiser Wilhelm III, and it's up to him to regain the ground that Wilhelm II lost.

All in all, it looks like the next six months will be used for the nations to recover the lost stability... or they could be used for further wars.
 

Alliances, Wars and Popularity:

-Ongoing Wars:
  
-Rebellion in German South West Africa.
  -Guerrilla Phase.
-Philippines Revolt.
  -Guerrilla Phase.

-Popularity Ratings:
(Frozen for Early 1902)

-Tsar Nicholas II: Low.
-President William McKinley: Very High.
-Kaiser Wilhelm III: Unknown.
-Kaiser Franz Joseph I: Low.
-Prime Minister Waldeck-Rousseau: Low.
-Prime Minister Salisbury: Medium.
-Emperor Mutsuhito: Very High.
-Sultan Abdul Hamid II: Medium.
-King Vittorio Emmanuele III: High.

Current Alliances:

Quadruple Alliance (Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary and Japan)
Franco-Russian Alliance (France and Russia)
Franco-British Alliance (France and the UK)
Anglo-Japanese Alliance (UK and Japan)
Turkish-American Alliance (Ottoman Empire and USA)
Anglo-American Alliance (UK and USA)
Orthodox League (Russia, Serbia, Montenegro and Romania)
Russo-American Defensive Alliance (Russia and USA)

The Map:

Map Changes:

-Treaty of Jerusalem (Goddammit, Spamage, why do you have to put such detail into maps?)
-Defeat of the Boxer Rebels.
-Japan takes over the Philippines.

[Lumine]

Turn Four - Late 1902: (Part One)

A few changes: From now on, diplomatic messages to NPC countries will be handled by Windjammer (excluding China), except in case of a crisis or event. He will also post a few events at some point, so be prepared.

To Russia:

Sergei Witte has begun to work and look into your proposal for limited welfare programs. He already has a framework, but the conservatives oppose him, the money is still limited, and he complains that the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers does not have enough power to get anything done.

Hampartsoum Boyadjian, nicknamed “Mourad the Great”, is the current leader of the Armenian rebels who have just formed your puppet state in Armenia. He, along with known rebels Kevork Chavush and Hrayr Dzhoghk, are demanding that the Armenian Liberation Movement should be recognized as the legitimate government of Armenia, and they have asked for full independence.

There is a lot of discontent in Finland over the new “Russification” policies, which are causing major unrest. It is reported that if this policies continue, then the Finish leaders might feel inclined to formally revolt against the Tsar.

Your proposal for an “Orthodox League” was considered a success, being accepted by Serbia, Montenegro and Romania. On the other hand, Greece and Bulgaria chose to reject the proposal. It’s up to you to develop this new league into a capable and strong alliance.

To United Kingdom:

There’s a lot of unrest in the Middle East. The Arabs who were supposedly to be “freed” are demanding their independence from the British Empire, and there are especially vocal about the sacred cities of Medina and Mecca. Even more, a Prince from the House of Saud, Ibn Saud, has managed to take over the city of Riyadh in the not yet formed protectorate of Arabia and proclaimed that he wishes to see a united Arabia. Even worse, the Zionists of Britain and Europe have joined forces with Theodor Herzl and are lobbying for a Jewish state in Palestine.

Cixi has folded and the British Army is now in charge of half of Shanghai and Nanjing. However, the Chinese as a whole are furious about the British attitude, which might lead them to look for friends elsewhere.

Your popularity has taken a hit despite the quick victory in the war. Conservatives enthusiastically support you over the takeover of many new colonies, but the Liberals are dismayed at the fact that a liberation war has turned once again into an imperialist affair. A series of good domestic reforms have meant that the Conservatives are still the favorites for the next election, but the opium scandal with the Ottoman Empire threatens to topple at least one or two of your cabinet members.

To France:

This election has forced you to switch to centrism, so you’ll have to be very careful in order to keep your coalition alive. Economic policy shouldn’t be hard to balance, but all the parties are rather sensitive in social policy. The socialists shouldn’t be of much concern, but the rise of the nationalists is worrying, to say the least.

The Senussi tribesmen in Libya have begun to attack some of the French garrisons with great success, and they might attempt to take over the country if given the chance.

Mount Pelee has once again erupted (this happened OTL), destroying the town of Morne-Rouge and causing 1000 deaths. Martinique will be in need of further help.

To Germany:

The last orders of your father concerned military affairs, and he ordered a rather major increase in military funding, which may push Germany into yet another arms race. The Junkers are rather pleased, of course, and the Centrum is not quite sure of the convenience of this. Anyway, Germany does not know what your political beliefs are, so they wait for your orders.

Given your young age, you are still a bachelor, but Chancellor Von Bülow is fearful of another assassination since you have no sons (only brothers). Because of that, Von Bülow has encouraged you to start a search for a Kaiserin.

Your father has secured new alliances and new pacts, but the results have meant the loss of a great part of the German colonial empire. It’s up to you to find a way to reach Germany’s place in the sun.

The Krupp Factory in Essen suffered an attack with bombs a few days ago, causing much destruction. The culprits haven’t been identified, but they could be anarchists, or they could be foreign agents…

The rebellion in German South West Africa has entered a guerrilla phase after reinforcements arrived, but it’s going to be rather tough to keep control of the zone. General Lothar von Trotha has requested your support for using very tough methods, including poisoning wells, pushing the tribes into the desert, and shooting any possible enemy on sight.

To Ottoman Empire:

The war has ended, and there’s a lot of be done. One of the most urgent matters is the enormous wave of refugees coming from your lost provinces (specially the Balkan ones). They must be handled with care. Besides, the Bosporus strait is still filled with destroyed ships, strangling what remains of your trade. The army managed to survive (but it lost the elite units), but the navy was destroyed as well in the battle of the Dardanelles.

While the war should make you unpopular, the fact is that the alternative options are either dead or even more unpopular. Murad is dead, your family won’t even try to depose you, and with the growing resentment against the British and the French nobody listens to the Young Turks anymore. This is your chance to finally strike your opponents.

The Kurds are revolting near Baghdad, asking for the creation of a fully independent Kurdish state. Someone is funding them and giving them weapons, but your secret policy can’t identify the country behind this.

Left almost without allies, the only remaining friend of the Ottoman Empire is the United States of America. Help from America will be crucial to rebuild what remains of your nation, especially if the Constantinople-Baghdad Railway is to be built after all.

[Lumine]

Turn Four - Late 1902: (Part Two)

To Japan:

The recently signed Treaty of Manila has left you in the possession of the Philippines. Both the Army and the Navy stand proudly besides you after winning so much territory in the past year, but will you need to appoint a Governor-General to head an interim government. The Filipino rebels have contacted the Japanese Army and have requested negotiations with the Emperor, stating that they hope independence will be granted to them.

The Zaibatsu are mostly placated with your answer, but there are many who are quite discontent with Katsura and his compliance to your orders. As a result, there are rumors that state that the Zaibatsu are looking for support among the Genro and other members of the Houses. Two members of the genro are dead, one is too ambitious (Kinomichi) and four of them are uninterested, but there is one man willing to conspire. Katsura’s former master, Field Marshal Yamagata Aritomo, who has strong support in the Army. Elections are next year, and Aritomo may very well try to create a party.

New battleships have joined the Japanese Navy, and Admiral Togo reports that Japan now has quite an enormous amount of firepower. There are a few ships being built in the United Kingdom as well, and some Admirals are considering asking for new ships in other nations as well. That, however, will cost a lot of money, most of which is now being used in modernization.

United States:

(Clarence, remember that the 1902 Midterms come after this turn)

Internal politics in the Republican Party are looking more and more confused as time goes by. The Progressives have lost a hero with Theodore Roosevelt, and they are not quite happy with the current government, and while Taft got confirmed as Sec. of War, his performance in Manila has killed any chance of him having a political career after his term ends. On the other hand, Vice-President Hay is quite popular with the party, so he might be of use convincing the dissidents to back the Administration.

In regards to domestic policy, the Pennsylvania strike finally ended when you forced the owners to agree to nine work hours per day and an increase in salary. Workers are now returning to work, but some believe they will be back soon. Your proposal for a Bureau of Investigation quickly passed the Senate after Roosevelt’s assassination, and the Bureau has already identified potential troublemakers in the form of socialists, anarchists, immigrants and a dangerous group of spies from an unknown country.

While your abandonment of the Philippines did not sit well with most of the public, your treaty with the Ottomans and your efficient handling of affairs with the British Empire have increased the perception of you as a good statesmen. The Ottomans will be in need of a lot of help to regain their strength, however, and there’s the possibility of finally building that railway in Baghdad.

To Italy:

Giolitti has enacted the moderate protectionist measures with your blessing, and so far they seem to be working very well. More trade and further industrialization will probably be the key to Italian economic growth, but the social gap is quickly widening.

Many officers in the Army claim that the Kingdom of Italy still lacks a common enemy, or a common message to become a truly united nation. They are making more and more noise about the need for a colonial empire (beyond the possession of Northern Abyssinia). Since your new trade deals have managed to reduce the dependence on British coal, the navy is now able to function with greater autonomy.

Socialists in Northern Italy demand major social reforms, including a shorter work week, higher wages, and the possibility of secularization of the state. Most of your advisors react by stating that the Socialists demand too much, and that caving into their demands will be a recipe for disaster.

To Austria Hungary:

Military reforms to increase cohesion with the army have led to a better performance, but there is still resentment among some regiments in regards to being forced to learn Austrian. Furthermore, the equipment is quickly becoming obsolete in light of greater and greater numbers of troops being recruited, so the search for new technologies and better weapons will be key.

Conrad Von Hotzendorf and the militarists have lost their patience on you after you weak response to the Second Great Turkish War, and they have demanded that Austria-Hungary invades Albania to install a protectorate there. They argue that the Balkans are not to be the left alone, and Albania has refused to ally with Russia. They also demand (and they are backed by Franz Ferdinand on this) that Von Hotzendorf and his officers are to be promoted and granted higher posts in the Ministry of War.

Your building program has been successful so far, managing to build many new roads, bridges and channels to increase connectivity within the Empire. Alas, money is now running low, and your army and navy surge are taking a lot of money as well. Finding new revenue or cutting some of the programs will be needed to avoid deficit.

[Lumine]

Extra Crisis! – Venezuela in Debt!

TO: USA, British Empire, German Empire and Italy.

Venezuela has just ended a bloody and long civil war, and the government of President Cipriano Castro secured many loans, financial and military help from Germany, Italy and Britain in order to win his war. With the country in ruins, Castro has refused to pay the loans, and has requested the military advisors of the European powers to leave his nation alone at once. Not content with that, the Venezuelan government has seized several foreign merchant ships as well. Military men and diplomats from the wronged nations have requested that the Regia Marina, the Royal Navy and the Kaiserliche Marine sail to Venezuela and force Castro’s hand with good old fashioned gunboat diplomacy.

[Lumine]

OOC: The Armenian kingdom also includes territories which were already part of our empire:

Otherwise I think you reflected the Treaty of Jerusalem perfectly, though Britain and France might have nitpicks too.

My bad, this map will serve as the Late 1902 map then. It was quite tiresome to reflect the specific borders of the treaty, so I would rather leave this version (the one you posted, that is) as the official one. The other potential problems are some borders in Arabia, but those are bound to change in this turn.

[Lumine]

Military Orders-

I hereby DECLARE WAR on the government of Venezuela


Lumine- please stay tuned for my next post which we detail the military maneuvers at the beginning of the turn, BEFORE the war thread opens...

Oh, there will be no war thread for this war, Clarence. War threads will only be used if the war is played between two players, and as a result all war-related moves go here as well.

[Lumine]

Well, seems I have a lot of requests this turn. I'll give you the answers later today!

[Lumine]

OOC: Yeah you're getting overthrown.

OOC: What good is a useless area of people hating me and the Germans, and what good is a war with France? I wouldn't say so. And I didn't give up all of it, I kept the parts that are of use to me.

Alsace-Lorraine was something the German people was never willing to give up. I'll have an update on some choices for the upcoming Reichstag election, which is now pretty much the only thing that saves you from a coup.

[Lumine]

OOC- when does this turn end?

It's going to take time. I have to update Venezuela and the Reichstag election, and I have like 40 to 50 PM's of this turn alone, so trust me, it's going to take time, xD

[Lumine]

OOC- when does this turn end?

It's going to take time. I have to update Venezuela and the Reichstag election, and I have like 40 to 50 PM's of this turn alone, so trust me, it's going to take time, xD

I guess I contributed a lot to this number...

Maybe we can agree not to post anything new in this turn, maybe sans for stuff that was delayed?

Please! I'm very happy with all the activity (honestly, it's astounding!), but the next turn will be like three posts as this point!

[Lumine]

Event – Venezuela Crisis Update:

TO: United States, Ottoman Empire, Italy and Germany.

Enjoying from the unexpected support of the United States, a Rapid Response Task Force was created in Guantanamo Bay, where the main American fleet was joined by units of Italy, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire. The news came as a shock to Venezuela and President Castro, who were expecting to be protected by President McKinley. The task force prepared and finally arrived to its destiny, installing a blockade against Venezuela focused on Puerto Cabello. President Castro was strongly considering asking for meditation from another country, but then an unexpected event changed the course of events. Spies planted in Washington from an unknown nation managed to reveal the existence of diplomatic cables proving that the United States planned to seize Puerto Cabello and split it with the Ottoman Empire, thus ignoring both Italy and Germany and insulting Wilhelm III and Vittorio Emmanuele II. In the United States, William Randolph Hearst and many Democrats and Progressives were quick to attack the President on his imperialistic (according to them) designs for Venezuela, and President Castro rallied his nation for support, stating that Venezuela would not give an inch on land or any type of concession to any nation. Thus, the die is cast.

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Event – Prelude to the 1902 Reichstag Election:

TO: Germany.

When Wilhelm III took the German throne, the people did not what to expect.  Kaiser Wilhelm gave one of the most famous speeches of his time, announcing a shocking amount of leftist and extremely liberal policies for a Germany that had lived for decades on conservative militarism. Naturally, his unexpected move in giving women the right to vote won him many supporters and a potential electoral powerbase, but his proposal to curb the rights of the nobility brought him enemies in all sides, with conservatives accusing him of being a traitor to his father, and Chancellor Von Bulow announcing that he would step down after the elections. While Kaiser Wilhem may have faced a good result in the polls with sponsored candidates, he made a fatal mistake. In the name of democracy and cooperation, he split German South West Africa with the natives, and had the courage to sell parts of Alsace-Lorraine by a ridiculous sum. It was the last straw.

Most of Germany quickly turned against the Kaiser, calling him an outright traitor to the nation. The high ranking officers in the German Armed Forces, Tirpitz, Moltke and even Schlieffen were quick in condemning the Kaiser and called for war against the French Republic to take the lands back. Conservatives, a good number of liberals and the Prussian junkers united behind Von Bulow, who agreed to lead a new “National Alliance” to stop the madness. On the other side of the aisle, the Social Democrats praised and defended the acts of the Kaiser, but they state that even those reforms are not enough. The Zentrum and the remaining liberals don’t know who to support yet, but it is rumored that Eugen Richter (Liberal) is calling to join conservatives in an anti-socialist and anti-semite block, and Constantine Fehrenbach (Zentrum) calls to support the Kaiser. The Kaiser’s endorsement of a certain leader or political party will probably prove helpful with the feminine vote, but the man is easily the most divisive figure in Germany of the last century.

Alliances so far:

-National Alliance:
 -German Conservative Party
 -German Reich Party
 -National Liberal Party
 -Free Minded Union

-Left:
 -Social Democratic Party
 -German People’s Party

-Other:
 -Free-minded People’s Party
 -Centre/Zentrum Party
 -Anti-Semite Party
 -Polish Party
 -German Agrarian League
 -Bavarian Peasants’ League
 -German-Hanoverian Party
 -Danish Party

[Lumine]

Indeed, I'll end the turn with the results of the Reichstag and the US midterms in a few hours, and next turn should begin today or tomorrow.

[Lumine]

United States Midterms, 1902:

Overview:

President William McKinley's second term has been rather interesting, and the President had to face the loss of Vice-President Roosevelt, complications in Cuba and the Philippines, the recent crisis in Venezuela, and a massive effort to get America involved in the world stage by joining the European system of alliance. Despite a lot of friction within the Republican Party (Progressives are considering creating another party after losing Roosevelt), McKinley went out in full force and seemed likely to win seats for his party. Alas, the Venezuelan scandal managed to bring life back into the Democratic Party, that tried to blast McKinley for being overtly imperialistic while at the same time attempting to win the immigrant vote.

In the end, and thanks to the increase in the size of the House (and redistricting), the Democrats managed to win 27 seats, and the Republicans won 7, retaining control of the House. The loss of some state assemblies (which had happened thanks to McKinley's strong victory in 1902), gave the Democrats more seats in the Senate, but then again, Republicans are still in control (and all Silver Republicans were finished with one exception). The Populist Party was finished off, and the Socialist Party, while making some gains in the popular vote, remains out of competition to actually win a House seat. There were no decisive races, but it should be noted that William Randolph Hearst won a seat to the House in a landslide, and it has been rumored that he will seek the Democratic nomination of 1904.

Senate:
Republican Party: 55
Democratic Party: 34
Silver Republican: 1

House:
Republican Party: 205
Democratic Party: 180

President McKinley still has Congress on his side to pass his agenda for the next two years, but there's increasing speculation as to whether he will indeed seek a third term. There's still time, though, since the election won't really being until late 1903/early 1904.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Reichstag Election, 1902:

Overview:

With the violent death of Kaiser Wilhelm II and a marked loss of prestige and power under his rule, Germany hoped their new Kaiser would be the man who would restore Germany's place in the sun. Alas, it was not to be. Wilhelm III was definitely the opposite of his father, a man focused on peace and domestic policy. His first moves to give voting rights to women shocked the world and won him many admirers. His choice to attack the nobility turned the Junkers against the Kaiser, but he still had the people behind them. Then, in a move considered puzzling for all of Europe, President Waldeck-Rousseau bought back portions of Alsace-Lorraine by a ridiculously low sum. Germany rose in anger, and politicians moved as quickly as they could to fight the next election, the first true "free" election. It was expected that the Kaiser would try to form a base of support, and yet he chose to remain neutral. The results were pure, unadulterated electoral chaos.

Chancellor Bernhard Von Bulow fought a brave fight with his unlikely alliance of Conservatives, Nationalists and disaffected Liberals, and the polls gave him the victory. If the Kaiser had endorsed the Zentrum or even the SPD it might have prevented that outcome, but the Junkers imitated McKinley's strategy against Bryan in 1896 in the US, and used their control of the media to scare voters from the SPD and the Zentrum, all while using nationalist propaganda to inflame the voters into confronting France.

National Alliance: 177
German Conservative Party: 80 (+24)
National Liberal Party: 54 (+8)
German Reich Party: 31 (+8)
German Free-minded Union: 12 (=)

Zentrum and Allies: 93
Centre Party: 72 (-30)
Polish Party: 11 (-3)
German-Hanoverian Party: 6 (-3)
Danish Party: 1 (=)

Left Front: 76
Social Democratic Party: 70 (+14)
German People's Party: 6 (-2)

Others: 52
Free-minded People's Party: 25 (-4)
Anti-Semites: 15 (+2)
German Agrarian League: 9 (+3)
Bavarian Peasants' League: 3 (-2)

In the end, Von Bülow's coalition lacked enough seats, but neither the SPD nor the Zentrum could possibly hope to win enough support to field a government. As a result, Von Bülow brought the Agrarian League and Eugen Richter and his Liberals (the Anti-Semites were not acceptable), creating a Grand Coalition of the Center-Right, determined to defeat Wilhelm III's agenda and restore Germany's power. Some advocate to strip the Kaiser from some of his power, some would prefer to actually force him into abdication. Anyway, Kaiser Wilhelm has a tough struggle ahead.

Final Results:

Von Bulow's Coalition: 211
Zentrum and Allies: 93
Left Front: 76
Others: 18

[Lumine]

End turn post coming in shortly.

[Lumine]

Indeed, I'll end the turn with the results of the Reichstag and the US midterms in a few hours, and next turn should begin today or tomorrow.

Mighty nice Easter gift from you!

Oh yeah And if you want to give me an extra gift, please let the SPD win

Sorry, Cranberry! Sadly, being democratic, nice and reasonable is really not the way to do well in this period of time, xD

[Lumine]

End of Late 1902:

The Balance of Power keeps shifting dramatically, and it seems the Quadruple Alliance is in real trouble. While Italy and Japan keep rising as stronger powers thanks to industrialization, good trade proposals, alternate alliances and effective takeovers of territory (the Philippines and Trieste, for example), Austria-Hungary and Germany are going through a series of political crisis due to the unpopularity of Wiihelm III and Franz Joseph I. On the other hand, the rest of the world is not necessarily united against the Quadruple Alliance, but closer ties between America, the British Empire and the French Republic could mean that a new super bloc might be born soon. The Ottoman Empire and Russia have few allies, but their are getting stronger as time passes (thanks to Russia's potential and Abdul Hamid surprisingly efficient leadership after the end of the war).

Thanks to political maneuvering and the commitment to peace of some leaders (which has made them unpopular), a great war between the powers and the end of the balance has been avoided, and despite the crisis in Venezuela, everybody is waiting for the next spot of trouble. Some point to recent ethnic strife in the Middle East, some to the Russo-Japanese rivalry, some to McKinley and Salisbury's imperalistic designs. Anyway, war might come sooner than expected if some pieces fall into line...
 

Alliances, Wars and Popularity:

-Ongoing Wars:
  
-Venezuelan War.
  -Naval blockade of Puerto Cabello.

-Popularity Ratings:
(Updated)

-Tsar Nicholas II: Low.
-President William McKinley: High.
-Kaiser Wilhelm III: Low.
-Kaiser Franz Joseph I: Very Low.
-Prime Minister Waldeck-Rousseau: Medium.
-Prime Minister Salisbury: High.
-Emperor Mutsuhito: Very High.
-Sultan Abdul Hamid II: Medium.
-King Vittorio Emmanuele III: High.

Current Alliances:

Three Power Alliance (USA, UK and Japan)
Quadruple Alliance (Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary and Japan)
Franco-Russian Alliance (France and Russia)
Franco-British Alliance (France and the UK)
Turkish-American Alliance (Ottoman Empire and USA)
Orthodox League (Russia, Serbia, Montenegro and Romania)
Russo-American Defensive Alliance (Russia and USA)
Adriatic League (Greece and Italy)

The Map:

Map Changes:

-German South West Africa split in half.
-French Republic buys parts of Alsace-Lorraine.

[Lumine]

I'll take most of the day off (I have to work on my novel), and hopefully I will be able to start the fifth turn in the night. I have a couple of technological discoveries, a horrible diplomatic accident and a massive amount of ethnic strife ready for next turn! Also, in a good touch of European irony, Pierre Waldeck-Rousseau and Wilhelm III have been nominated (and are currently facing a powerful couple of pacifists) to the Nobel Peace Prize for their Alsace-Lorraine initiative. Stay tuned!

[Lumine]

Turn Five - Early 1903: (Part I)

-Russia:

Italy was humiliated in the Italo-Abyssinian War a few years ago mostly thanks to your intervention on behalf of the African nation. Even if most of the armament you sent was confiscated, the rifles that did arrive and the training by Count Nikolay Leontiev helped the Abyssinians to win the war. Emperor Menelik II wrote Leontiev to see if Russia could continue to help Abyssinia militarily and economically to prevent another power from invading his Empire, and Leontiev has made his case before Witte, who turns to you for approval.

The Armenian nationalists have been realistic enough to accept your terms, but they do have a couple of issues they’d like to discuss with you before closing the deal. First, they would like an assurance that no Russification policies of any kind will be enacted, securing Armenia’s domestic independence. And second, since the current government is comprised of a mixture of revolutionaries, aristocrats and exiles, they request permission to choose their own King.

The Trans-Siberian Railway, considered the key of Russian power in Siberian and the Far-East, is going through enormous difficulties. The fact that there’s only a single track makes things slower, some tracks are badly built, corruption is everywhere and anarchist seem to have grown fond of blowing up entire sections from time to time.

-United Kingdom:

While your proposals for the Middle East and the potential creation of an Arabic state have led to positive reaction from most of the Princes (and the House of Saud has stopped military movements in order to participate in the talks), the peace did not last long. The occupied Middle East was already incredibly tough to handle thanks to refugees leaving, Ottoman Army units left behind and ethnic and religious rivalries. But once it was announced that the Jews would be allowed to return to Palestine, hell broke loose. Arabia kept mostly calm (although there’s growing resentment at the lack of discipline of the troops near Medina and Mecca), but Palestine has erupted in outright chaos. It’s not a revolt yet, but Jews are being assassinated and British troops harassed, ambushed and even killed when wandering alone. Palestinian leaders have made it very clear that they will not stand for the loss of their homeland, and if swift measures are not taken soon, the Middle East will rise.

Despite a mild heart attack, Cecil Rhodes still lives, and he has become the strongest supporter of the Jerusalem-Cairo railroad now that the British Empire has a clear land route. However, there is still one state blocking the railway in Nigeria. Colonial troops led by General Frederick Lugard have been clearing the road and capturing some parts of the hostile Sokoto Caliphate, leading Sultan Attahiru I to declare war on Lugard’s troops. Rhodes has requested that the government launches a full scale attack against Attahiru I, but it should be remembered that, as a Muslim head of state, his defeat might increase unrest in the Middle East.

The London Exposition was considered a resounding success across the Empire, allowing the people to rejoice at the increase in British strength and position. Of course, the world knows no superpower but the British are getting closer and closer as time goes by in light of the failures and hardships of other adversaries. Problem is, there is a growing number of people and politicians who believe that it is time to strengthen the Empire and stop expanding it. Chief among them is Joseph Chamberlain, who is been rumored to be interested in a plan for tariffs in the name of “Imperial Preference”.

-France:

While the French troops have held control over key Libyan cites like Tripoli, Benghazi or Tobruk, the Senoussi rebellion keeps growing in size, now controlling most if not all of the Libyan desert. They seem to be preparing to strike the cities as soon as they have enough power, and the local population fully supports their efforts. The French commander requests more reinforcements, and there’s talk of installing harsher policies against this rebellion.

Congratulations, Prime Minister! Your Alsace-Lorraine deal has shocked France, and while some say this is not enough, most people are hailing you for recovering some lost territory, leading to a heavy surge in your popularity. Whether that will allow you to follow a more ideological agenda is left to be seen, but so far you are popular enough to last your term without any problems.

Brazilian Alberto Santos Dumont was a very known figure in French society as an adventure, inventor and sometimes philanthropist. While he was a strong supporter of the dirigible (amazing Paris by flying along to the Eiffel Tower), he became interested in heavier-than-air aircraft in Late 1901, and after contacting some friends in the United States and some potential investors, Santos Dumont managed to create his own “airplane”, which he proudly called “Oiseau de Proie”, and he managed to make the first controlled, powered and sustained heavier-than-air human flight near Paris, recorded for posterity. Santos Dumont is now a hero across Europe and the World (and let’s not mention Brazil), and it seems a new technological era approaches.

-Germany:

Bernhard Von Bülow is still the Chancellor, and while he remains loyal to the memory of Wilhelm II, he is determined to fight in order to pursue his military agenda. For starters, he wishes to go through with a naval surge focusing on Battleships, a surge in military garrisons in the Colonial Empire, the prosecution of the war in German South West Africa and new fortifications built across Alsace-Lorraine. He is also requesting permission to make plans for certain events, and he has recommended that, if the Kaiser is interested in expanding the Empire and its influence, Germany should try to approach Latin America, bully China or even invade Abyssinia if needed be. It’s up to you to veto or approve some of these proposals.

Today the Krupp factories in Essen suffered a major attack with bombs, leading to the loss of several tons of military equipment and the lives of many workers. Von Bülow suspects the anarchists, but one his young adjutants, Captain Franz Von Papen, shares his suspicions of this being the work of foreign agents from Britain or France seeking to undermine Germany.

Your voting reform was passed by the last Reichstag given that you still had almost absolute powers, but since you relinquished half your power the rest of your domestic proposals are now stalled. The next one to be voted is the proposal to abolish the nobility, and it’s becoming obvious that it will fail miserably with the current votes. Von Bülow has recommended that you drop it in order to appease the Junkers and to you the embarrassment, but even if you do, the Junkers are determined to see you going down in flames, and it won’t be easy to win them back.

-Ottoman Empire:

Despite losing the war, you have led a very aggressive push for reforms in domestic and military policy, leading to the surprise of the Empire. While leaving the minorities behind will be of great help, your Empire is still economically weak and the Secret Police still bloated. Your reforms have helped to avoid a coup or a revolution and it seems your military forces are on the road to achieving efficiency and true strenght, but hard work will be crucial for your Empire to retake the position of a true would power. The new association with the United States and Japan has proved popular, but more than Grand Vizier Mehmed Said Pasha can handle, so he has presented his resignation.

A great number of European philanthropists and adventurers have arrived on Constantinople to participate in the works to restore the Dardanelles, and many of them have offered to help with modernization and industrialization. Some are already helping with the first movements to build the Baghdad-Constantinople Railway, and some are going as far as to apply to become officers in the army.

With the war over and nationalism on the rise, your people continue to hate the powers who humiliated the nation. France and Russia were already strongly disliked, but Britain was regarded in a more positive light for saving the Empire in 1878. Not anymore. The British Empire is now hated across the entire Empire, and British citizens are often attacked and even lynched by mobs if found alone. Your Empire wants revenge, and it hopes to get it one day.

Continued pressure by your troops has led the Kurdish militia to retreat to the mountains to continue a guerrilla war which they will probably lose very soon, and it has been confirmed so far that Persia has nothing to do with them. It should be noted that their weapons are modern, so it has been theorized that someone really powerful is behind them.

[Lumine]

Turn Five - Early 1903: (Part II)

-Japan:

Your comprehensive and surprisingly tolerant policies in regards to the Jews have proved enormously beneficial in hindsight, as the growing anti-semitism of Europe have led thousands of European and Russian Jews to seek asylum in the Empire, becoming incredibly loyal subjects of the Emperor. More of them are expected to arrive now that the Middle East is becoming a chaotic place, and while providing shelter for them will prove somewhat expensive, they bring economical and technical expertice that might prove decisive in the future.

Governor-General Matsukata has tried his best to avoid bloodshed in the Philippines, and so far he has faced much more success than “Bloodbath Taft”. President Aguinaldo and General Malvar have agreed to put down most of their forces. They appreciate the attempt to give them a good degree of autonomy, but they warn that the Philippines won’t accept you forever. Alas, some of the more extreme Filipino patriots have continued a guerrilla war, ambushing a good number of your troops near Manila. They are armed with modern weaponry and seem to be instructed in the European way, leading Matsukata to believe one of the major powers is disrupting your efforts there (and he believes Russia or Britain to be responsible).

The Japanese General election will come in 1903, and it might prove an interesting chance for you to continue your quest to retake your power. Saionji Kinomichi aims to maintain his hold over the Diet with his Seiyukai Party (a mixture of conservatives and liberals who are mostly pro-europe), and he currently faces Prime Minister Katsura and his group of independents and small clubs. There is another wildcard, the renewed (after almost collapsing in 1898) Kensei Honto Party, of Former Prime Minister Okuma Shigenobu, one of the most liberal politicians in Japan (who advocates for a stronger navy and a liberal constitution). There are fears that Okuma and Saijonji might unite to fight Katsura’s independents and conservatives, but the good part is that losing the election won’t topple Katsura (as he already lacks parliamentary support) unless you wish to dismiss him.

-Italy:

-Your offer to Greece has had a very positive result, and Greece and Italy are now members of the so called “Adriatic Pact”. The Greeks are quite enthusiastic about regaining some territory from their past glory (part of why they don’t trust the Russians), and they are already asking for economical assistance and military cooperation to share the benefits of Italian technology. They have also express a willingness to fight wars against Albania and Bulgaria, if there’s a need for that.

 -A report from the Interior Minister reveals that organized crime is growing stronger and stronger in the poor rural areas of the South. The so called Sicilian Mafia alone has more than a 1000 members divided in eight clans, and they are basically the rules of the almost feudal island.

-Due to a poor economical situation, more and more Italians are abandoning the nation to seek new opportunities in the "New World". This has resulted in more than two million Italians in the United States, and about 1.5 million in Argentina (causing a massive shift in culture in that country). Some politicians argue that immigration should be stopped and that the government should work with President McKinley on this issue, but Giolitti would prefer to put only mild restrictions.

Your insider sources in the Vatican report that Pope Leo XIII will die very soon. Leo XIII has been known for his Austrian sympathies and his reformist spirit, and he has often critized the Kingdom of Italy for being too anti-catholic for him. Some argue that it might be wise to seek support for a Cardinal more friendly to the government, and so far the leading candidate for the Conclave is Cardinal Mariano Rampolla, an expert diplomat and a more liberal candidate than other options.

-Austria Hungary:

-Greetings, Kaiser. You have taken over after the abdication of Franz Joseph I, and it’s up to you to give renewed strength to your Empire in order to retake your lost prestige. Foreign policy failures and the handover of Trieste have reinforced the perception of your Empire as a weak state, but can certainly prove them wrong. For starters, you have to make a choice as to whom to back in regards to court politics. The most cohesive faction is led by Conrad Von Hotzendorf, unofficial leader of the militarist clique, who humbly request you support for him and his fellow officers to restore Austria-Hungary’s glory. You can also choose to ally yourself with Ernst Von Koerber the Austrian politicians, or take an unexpected choice in backing the leaders of the ethnic minorities or the Hungarians. Choose wisely.

 -Military reforms to increase cohesion with the army have led to a better performance, but there is still resentment among some regiments in regards to being forced to learn Austrian. Furthermore, the equipment is quickly becoming obsolete in light of greater and greater numbers of troops being recruited, so the search for new technologies and better weapons will be key for the success of the Army in a potential war. (From past turn)

The infrastructure program ordered by Franz Joseph I has been rather successful so far, managing to build many new roads, bridges and channels to increase connectivity within the Empire. Alas, money is now running low, and the army and navy surge ordered by him as well are taking a lot of money. Finding new revenue or cutting some of the programs will be needed to avoid deficit. (From past turn)

-USA:

The McKinley administration has survived the midterms and you still have Congress on your side, but there is a degree of resentment over the fact the domestic policy is still ignored. Furthermore, the Progressive wing seems to be unwilling to take Vice-President Hay’s olive branch, and they maintain their threats of leaving the party if the administration goes for policies that are too conservative.

Your Bureau of Investigation, currently overstretched thanks to massive efforts to jail and stop anarchists, has made little progress in regards to capturing the spy ring that provoked the Puerto Cabello scandal. However, they have been able to gather some pieces of information: The spy ring is acting within Washington D.C, and they are most likely acting and plotting with the active help of an Embassy, meaning that they could very well be sent by one of the major powers in order to embarrass the United States.  

Negotiations with the Cuban government have resulted in an agreement that is at the very least practical to you, given that you have left the Cubans no choice. There is one point that hasn’t been formally discussed yet, and that is the future status of Guantanamo Bay, currently used as a naval base and serving as the HQ to the Special Task Force in Venezuela. Will you ask for a  lease in Guantanmo? Buy it? Outright annex it? Perhaps return it to the Cubans?

Past policies and directives have led to a surprising expansion of the American Navy and Army. From being considered a pushover before the War with Spain mere years ago, America’s military might is now respected across the globe, but not feared. Most of the funds have focused on the navy buildup (with dozens of ships in construction), and while this reduces unemployment, there are fears of deficit or excessive spending if this continues for a prolonged time, specially with the expenses of maintaining such a large force.

[Lumine]

Crisis! – Sea of Japan incident!

TO: Japan and Russia.

Admiral Stepan Makarov was busy during 1902 preparing the Russian Navy for a war while also reforming it, but since he couldn’t be in every place all times, his reforms were bound to create a conflict. In this case, there was a conflict in the Far-East that led to a massive diplomatic disaster, the likes of which hadn’t been seen in years. Yevgeny Alexeiev, the Far-East Viceroy, was a supportive of Makarov’s aggressive tactics, and he decided to command the Port Arthur and Vladivostok’s fleets to have weekly sorties into sea to train the crews. He was opposed on this by his Chief of Staff, the more cautious Admiral Wilhelm Vitgeft, who argued that the fleet should be kept inside the ports. This led to conflicting orders and tension among the officers in the fleets, and one of the sorties became a full-fledged disaster.

Admiral Vsevolod Rudnev was leading one of these sorties into the Sea of Japan when he found himself unexpected facing a Japanese Fleet headed by Vice Admiral Uryu Sotokichi, who has conducting exercises with his new British-made Cruisers and Battleships. Rudnev’s forces, notoriously bad trained and sometimes unruly, mistook the Japanese exercise as hostile maneuvers, and before Rudnev could take full command of his force his sailors launched torpedoes and started firing at Uyru’s forces, forcing the Japanese to answer fire. After several minutes of carnage, Rudnev retook control and forced his ships to withdraw. Uryu kept firing for a couple more minutes before realizing what had probably happened, and finally ceased fire as well. Both fleets returned (to Port Arthur and Kure, respectively) to tell the story, and this provoked mass indignation across Russia and Japan, with many people calling for war against the aggressor (of course, the other nation was the aggression in every version of the story). No ships were lost, but the Russians took heavier damage (with three battleships severely damaged), and both sides lost about 100 to 200 sailors between dead and wounded.

Blood will come at the gates of the East, it seems.

Crisis! – Venezuela resists the blockade!

TO: Germany, Italy, Ottoman Empire and the United States.

While the coalition against Venezuela kept a tight blockade against Puerto Cabello and survived the diplomatic scandal, President Cipriano Castro managed to manipulate nationalism sentiment enough to gain the backing of the entire nation against imperialistic aggression, and is now demanding that the four enemy powers leave Venezuela. Castro has also appealed to Tsar Nicholas II for his assistance, and to every other world power to condemn the blockade. While the Venezuelan government faces economic losses, there’s increased trade with its neighbors (specially Colombia, that hates McKinley’s meddling in South America) which allows them to survive for now. The world powers can now abandon Venezuela, outright invade the country or keep the blockade hoping Castro will eventually surrender, but the situation doesn’t look too kind for them.

Event – Prime Minister Salisbury found dead in his sleep!

TO: British Empire.

Despite the warnings of his doctors that his health might make it hard for him to continue as Prime Minister, Lord Salisbury kept fighting by showing both efficiency and strong leadership, thus helping the British Empire to win even more power. Alas, the strain proved too much for him, and he was found dead in his sleep shortly after the London exposition ended. The British Empire now mourns Queen Victoria’s last Prime Minister, and it is time for the Conservative and Unionist Party to choose a successor between Balfour, Landsdowne and Chamberlain to be appointed Prime Minister for the remaining three years of Salisbury’s last term. The Prime Minister will be missed.

Event – Waldeck-Rousseau and Wilhelm III won the second Nobel Peace Prize!

TO: France and Germany.

While the Alsace-Lorraine deal might have earned Wilhelm III many enemies in his homeland, it seems to have impressed the pacifists to a great degree. As a result, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the Kaiser in order to acknowledge his initiative and his sacrifice to achieve peace, and Prime Minister Waldeck-Rousseau was awarded the prize as well for proposing the deal (although it has been rumored that the award was given to him as well to avoid antagonizing France). This will evidently raise the profile of the Nobel Peace Prize, as two heads of state now have. They might not accept it, of course, but it has been clear to the world that these two men have made history.