Now that May 2024 has arrived, this topic is six months from the general election for November 5, 2024.
I am, at this point, predicting a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President. That Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, will win re-election to a second term to become the 47th U.S. president. After having been unseated in 2020, by current and 46th president of the United States Joe Biden, Trump will return the favor—as had previously played out in Elections 1888 and 1892 between Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison—in this rematch.
I am predicting a Republican Trifecta. But, for the time being, this topic addresses U.S. President.
The above map has a color key as follows: Solid shades are 2020-to-2024 party holds. Light shades are 2020-to-2024 party switches (pickups).
My guess, with an outcome of 31 carried states, plus
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes is pretty common. It would be the much-reported “Swing States”: a Republican hold of North Carolina and Republican pickups of six other states (alphabetically, they are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
U.S. Popular Vote🔵
Biden 46%
🔴
Trump 49%
🟣
Others 5%
Anything more to address—such as state margins—will be in a separate topic. An update may come at a later date as we move closer to November 5, 2024. This specific topic is for this particular timing:
Six Months Out.
