538 Model Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Sad that Nate Silver, who is totally discredited and a fraud, is now whoring himself out for page clicks like this. Not good!

[Lief 🗽]

If you look at every other probability-based model (NYT Upshot, Sam Wang, Daily Kos), none of them have swung as wildly as Silver's. They have mostly stayed within a 70-90% Clinton range, which makes sense because the fundamentals of the race haven't really changed that much. But a good model that doesn't swing wildly from day to day doesn't bring in the page views. Nate just wants clicks. He's not interested in accurately forecasting anything.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's 2012 firewall included Ohio.

[Lief 🗽]

Good, good. Nate Silver heeled.

[Lief 🗽]

So all of the landslide national polls this morning actually caused Clinton's chance of winning to tick DOWN slightly

Especially weird because Bloomberg polls has caused huge shifts in the past (because Nate absurdly overrates Selzer outside of Iowa).

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen and the IBD poll are weighing her numbers down, and there aren't enough high quality polls in the past week to drown them out.

[Lief 🗽]

Please don't sully this fine forum with the trash numbers spat out by discredited fraud Nate Silver.

[Lief 🗽]

Sad to see Nate Silver appear to suffer a mental breakdown as his model comes closer and closer to being exposed as a massive fraud.

[Lief 🗽]

Shouldn't all three models be the same by now?