Landmark Communications/WSB-TV: Georgia - Trump + 2

[HillOfANight]

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Except PPP in March of 2012, it was a solid Romney lead the last election, had him winning by at least 7. Landmark polled it May 2012 and found Romney +11. It's troubling for Trump that he's only up 1.3%. She can squeak by with a win here with enough GOP support for Johnson or disaffected Republicans not showing up.

[HillOfANight]

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Except PPP in March of 2012, it was a solid Romney lead the last election, had him winning by at least 7. Landmark polled it May 2012 and found Romney +11. It's troubling for Trump that he's only up 1.3%. She can squeak by with a win here with enough GOP support for Johnson or disaffected Republicans not showing up.

I know Georgia pretty well. You get these teaser polls all the time that it's possible for a Dem win statewide. Then reality takes over.

Georgia has state-wide pollsters like Michigan. Landmark is not the best of Georgia pollsters, let's leave it at that.

Where were the teaser polls in 2012?

What other Georgia pollsters are there? InsiderAdvantage? They have a C- on 538 and 71% of races called right vs Landmark's B/88%.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/757712606274711552
http://landmarkcommunications.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LandmarkRosetta-Stone-Releases-Latest-Georgia-Presidential-Poll.pdf
Done yesterday July 24th, POST RNC

[HillOfANight]

I saw 1 primary ad in Atlanta from her. If an ad was seen in GA recently, it might be Florida leakage?

[HillOfANight]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/26/wsb-poll-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-georgia/

“A lot of people haven’t grasped the real competitive nature of Georgia statewide elections,” said Mark Rountree, the head of Landmark Communications. “They look at the state of Georgia, which has been heavily controlled by Republicans for more than a decade, and dismiss the fact that changes have occurred and now 37 percent of voters are minorities. It’s created a false sense of security for many Republican political operatives.”

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2008_1104/documentdirect%20ssvrz521_nov_2008.pdf
64.1% white in 2008, 30% black in 2008.

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/cfv_age_breakdown_totals_nov_2012.pdf
61.4% white in 2012, 29.9% black in 2012.

http://onlineathens.com/mobile/2016-06-21/georgia-growth-super-concentrated-atlanta-half-states-counties-are-losing

There was a dropoff of 100K whites voting between 2008 and 2012. This looks like it's accelerating as half of GA is losing population.

[HillOfANight]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia,_1992
Bill won with 43%...

If Johnson maintains >=5% she won't need 50%