Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Flyersfan232]

Updated the title with the next major electoral event. The referendum to approve the M5S' much-desired constitutional reform to reduce the number of MPs will be held at the end of next month. People expect it to pass easily (voters hate politicians, etc.) but with the government (and especially M5S) so unpopular, you never know.

I won't be participating in this thread much until then, though, so keep having fun without me.

What a great time to hold a vote
They deserved to loose

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

[Flyersfan232]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Basically who ever follows him as leader will be the q meditators between brothers and league and what about salvini? Anyone likely to take his place once he done with politics?

[Flyersfan232]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

- Southerners who are right-wing but not right-wing enough for FdI
- teh b0urge0isie
- "Liberal internationalist" Christian democrats
- People in retirement age, who understandably have a particularly bad opinion of extremisms

etc. etc. [note that there is overlap among these groups]

Also according to exit polls surprisingly many unemployed people?

I mean, if you go past the fact that Berlusconi is an unprincipled clownish person (which apparently is not so difficult to do) and Forza Italia his personalistic party, voting for it is makes a lot of sense if you have a certain ideological predisposition.

Who are southern league voters and norther fdi voters?

[Flyersfan232]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

A national unity government? Can’t wait to see this sh*tshow fall apart in a year

[Flyersfan232]

Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.

Have elections in June then

[Flyersfan232]

"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter]

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?

It is not very clear because Bossi is irrelevant now and no one talks about him much, but generally speaking the more "old guard" an official or a voter is and the more likely they are to view Bossi positively.
There exists an internal faction of Lega that dislikes Salvini and in general the new Southern-inclusive #populist nationalism, and preferred Bossi, but they are very much on the sidelines.

Didn’t salvini said he was willing to support the government if they possible a spring election?

[Flyersfan232]

Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

have the centerists party considering forming a liberal bloc?

[Flyersfan232]

Could somebody please give a overview of how the electoral law works at the moment?

What exactly does it mean that Lega and FI are in coalition?  Do you vote for the CDX or for individual parties within the coalition?  How do coalitions work in single member seats?

I think I recall that Sardinian Action ran with Lega at the last election.  However they aren't part of the CDX per se?  How does that work?

Likewise Raffaele Fitto had his own party (Direction which had ties to the Tories) which was inside NcI which in turn was part of the CDX.  What was going on there?

Sorry - a lot of questions about the complex law!

Using the current electoral law:

1. You vote for a single list, and the vote is also transferred to the single-member constituency candidate put up by that list. Parties can form coalitions, which means that they all stand behind the same candidate in each constituency (though that candidate is officially affiliated to one of the lists that support him - or is an independent).

2. The Partito Sardo d'Azione (party) didn't run as an autonomous list in 2018, but ran some candidates inside the Lega lists. Lega in turn was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition.

3. Likewise Fitto's party ran candidates inside the Noi con l'Italia lists. And NcI was one of the four lists inside the CDX coalition too.

have the centerists party considering forming a liberal bloc?

Unsure what parties you are referring to, but right now I don't think there is any centrist/liberal coalition on the horizon. Certainly not within the current parties.
Also, I think the experience of Monti in 2013 doesn't bode well for this sort of thing.

Iv e+ azonia

[Flyersfan232]

so Iv e+ azonia arent going to make anything??? would be a way for renzi to survived. and could this techocratic pm make a party of his own last the last one did

[Flyersfan232]

So how long will this sh*tshow of a goverment  last i say till next spring.

[Flyersfan232]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd.

was that her offical account?

[Flyersfan232]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

[Flyersfan232]

I havent see meloni attack salvini at all centre right doing good cop bad cop with this?

Meloni is going to attack the government in general but presumably not Salvini specifically, and that's for the simple reason that she needs Salvini as an electoral ally.

Partially relatedly, Salvini is pushing to delay the local elections and the Calabria regional election to the fall, whereas Meloni is eager to vote in the spring.

question who will be the next president and is their likely a snap election next spring???

[Flyersfan232]

Has league ever considered a san Marino branch of the party? That political lane seem to be wide open

[Flyersfan232]

I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.

salvini pulls out of the draghl government?

[Flyersfan232]

How the Presidential race shaping up?

[Flyersfan232]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

could lega still end up with more seat in the next election base on geography?

[Flyersfan232]

will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

[Flyersfan232]

will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.

couple of royal families doing nothing

[Flyersfan232]

will they be push for a directly elected president after this?

I hope not considering the nature of the Italian presidency, but never underestimate the stupidity of institutional reform ideas in il bel paese.

couple of royal families doing nothing

Speaking of this what is the monarchist scene like now a days

[Flyersfan232]

I love all the drama in Italians politics.