Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Tender Branson]

This isn't very jolly news for Republicans:

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And Sink already led him by more than 20 in the last poll ...

[Tender Branson]

A new set of polls:

If the special election for the US Congressional district 13 seat were held today, and
the candidates were Kathleen Peters and Alex Sink, who would you vote for?

    Peters:           30.7%
    Sink:              49.7%
    Undecided:    19.6%

If the candidates were David Jolly and Alex Sink, who would you vote for?

    Jolly:               34.9%
    Sink:               49.3%
    Undecided:     15.7%


REPUBLICANS ONLY:

In the Republican Primary for the US Congressional district 13 seat, would you vote for David Jolly, Kathleen Peters or Someone else?

Responses: 582 (Margin of Error ± 4.1% at 95% confidence level)

    Jolly:                   39.2%
    Peters:               17.3%
    Someone else:   30.9%
    Unsure:              12.6%

CD-13 2014 Special Election Survey

Telephone survey of active registered voters within U.S. Congressional District 13, conducted on November 18th, 2013:

(only voters that voted in the 2010 and 2012 general elections were considered active voters)

Total people polled: 1252

These results were scientifically weighted by political party, race and age.
Margin of error: ± 2.8% at a 95% confidence level

http://stpetepolls.org/surveys/special_election_2014_CD13.html

[Tender Branson]

Jolly up 11 in new GOP primary poll:

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http://www.saintpetersblog.com/in-latest-poll-of-cd-13-gop-primary-david-jolly-pulls-away-from-kathleen-peters

[Tender Branson]

Gravis Marketing shows a much closer race (Jolly+6, with Peters dominating among early voters):



Election day voters only:



Those who have already voted:



Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 976 registered Republican voters in Florida’s 13th Congressional District regarding current events and whom they would likely vote for among the candidates.  The poll carries a margin of error of 3%

http://gravismarketingblog.com/2014/01/10/florida-congressional-district-13-jolly-holds-lead-gravis-marketing-poll

...

Looks like Peters could win if there's some trend to her among election day voters only.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

36% Bircher
33% Jolly
31% Peters

[Tender Branson]

So, Sink vs. Jolly vs. some Libertarian guy.

[Tender Branson]

Sink should win by 51-47-2 or 52-46-2 or so.

[Tender Branson]

66K early votes have been cast. The split is 42R/39D/19I which is similar to the overall registration.

Smith says this is good news for Sink since Pubs usually have a sizeable early vote lead.

Yeah, those numbers look encouraging:

In 2012, 7% more Republicans than Democrats turned out - but Obama won the district.

[Tender Branson]

This is tomorrow.

My prediction:

49.7% Sink
47.1% Jolly
  3.1% Overby
  0.1% Write-in-guy

[Tender Branson]

Results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_US_House_0311.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Tender Branson]

OH. MY. GOD ...

Democrats are either extremely lazy voters, or Sink is a fail-candidate. Or both.