Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[South Dakota Democrat]

At least Cagle won one county (Stephens).

3 counties on the map I'm looking at (NYT), although Monroe and Hall are both 51-49 and might not hold.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

At least Cagle won one county (Stephens).

3 counties on the map I'm looking at (NYT), although Monroe and Hall are both 51-49 and might not hold.

Monroe finished counting. Cagle won that too.

[Zaybay]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

[South Dakota Democrat]

At least Cagle won one county (Stephens).

3 counties on the map I'm looking at (NYT), although Monroe and Hall are both 51-49 and might not hold.

Monroe finished counting. Cagle won that too.

Ah, yes, you are correct, all 14 precincts are in.

Stephens County, where Cagle won 61-39, has only one precinct, that's kind of funny.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

Cat poop that can probably do a better job of turning out the rural vote, though.

[Cuca_Beludo]

Shafer is going to win.

Fulton and Gwinnett only 20% in.

Cobb 8% in.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah...I could be totally wrong (wouldn't be the first time!) but I think Kemp winning is going to require Abrams to essentially turn out an additional 25-50k voters if she wants to win on Election Night. Contrary to what the polls said months out, Cagle was weaker where it counted. It's probably enough of a difference to essentially say - at minimum - Abrams isn't winning a majority in November.

[Zaybay]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

Cat poop that can probably do a better job of turning out the rural vote, though.

and lose the suburban vote and possibly make a giant goof.

Thats the problem, each candidate has their own weaknesses, so it really depends on how you see them.

Cagle had establishment support, a ""moderate"" persona, and support from the Suburbs. But he was boring, corrupt, and had many scandals around him.

Kemp has grassroots support, a ""Conservative"" persona, and support from the rurals. in droves. But he is gaffe-prone, has scandals(voter rolls), and rather controversial for the suburbs.

So, it really depends.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, has anybody noticed that GOP runoff totals are on track to come very close to their primary numbers? It's not an exact calculation, but 73% reporting and 421k votes in the GOV race = 576k votes (was 607k in the primary). It's pretty obvious the people turned against Cagle.

[IceSpear]

Judging from tonight, Cagle's "support" in the suburbs was about an inch deep.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Safe to say Abrams will win Gwinnett County by a Hillary-esque margin if not more. Cobb is also in play. Every time I get asked to canvass it is there.

[Zaybay]

Cagle's margins everywhere are disappointing. He barely has any counties, not even Dekalb and the suburbs voted for him. I didnt know GA would be so mad about the scandals.

[Adam Griffin]

I just got home (hate having party meetings on Tuesdays!).

Kemp's margin will fall as the metro core isn't really reporting even yet, but it'll definitely remain in the 60s. Wow - what an embarrassment (and how unfortunate for GA Dems)!

Also: the name "Brad Raffensperger". Learn it: he'll be on par with names like Kris Kobach, and will be the face of voter suppression in GA as it arises to swing state status if Barrow doesn't pull a Hail Mary (which he very well may!).

Also sad to see the 2 better Democratic candidates in GA-6 & GA-7 are losing their runoffs...

Yeah, true, I think Cagle would have been an easier GE opponent.

TBH, this is like comparing dog poop, to cat poop, there both equally bad. Both were C candidates, and they both still remain C candidates.

Cat poop that can probably do a better job of turning out the rural vote, though.

and lose the suburban vote and possibly make a giant goof.

Thats the problem, each candidate has their own weaknesses, so it really depends on how you see them.

Cagle had establishment support, a ""moderate"" persona, and support from the Suburbs. But he was boring, corrupt, and had many scandals around him.

Kemp has grassroots support, a ""Conservative"" persona, and support from the rurals. in droves. But he is gaffe-prone, has scandals(voter rolls), and rather controversial for the suburbs.

So, it really depends.

The GA suburbs have already made up their minds: we just don't know what that verdict is yet. Either they were going with the GOP nominee or with the Dems, but suburbons in GA don't behave as thoughtful, considerate people. If they've finally broken away from the GOP as so many suspect, then they would be with us regardless of whether it's Kemp or Cagle. The rubes, however, wouldn't be as energized with Cagle - and they still run the asylum.

Even ignoring that, Kemp has the more moderate record in office (a very weird switch-up between the two candidates was that Kemp is a moderate who pretended to be an extremist, and Cagle was an extremist who pretended to be a moderate - likely brought on by the lobotomized suburbons equating incumbency with moderation, which has been historically true in GAGOP politics) and could easily pivot in the general, especially if Abrams' campaign is merely built around attacking the guy who brought AVR and online voter registration to GA with claims of "voter suppression".

[Adam Griffin]

Judging from tonight, Cagle's "support" in the suburbs was about an inch deep.

LOL yes. Between Stewart's support in NoVA and Kemp's support in ATL and other GA suburbs, I'm not sure why so many think the Cagle/Kemp debate was going to make a difference in the suburbs. Their minds are already made up one way or another.

[IceSpear]

Judging from tonight, Cagle's "support" in the suburbs was about an inch deep.

LOL yes. Between Stewart's support in NoVA and Kemp's support in ATL and other GA suburbs, I'm not sure why so many think the Cagle/Kemp debate was going to make a difference in the suburbs. Their minds are already made up one way or another.

Yeah, it seems like as more and more suburban former Republicans leave the GOP, what's left in those areas is just as extreme as their rural base. Stewart dominating in Fairfax County while getting crushed in Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach is a great example of that.

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

[Zaybay]

Abrams needs the primary vote, with some suburbanites going to her. That would give her the win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

[scutosaurus]

Just checked the results and LMFAO. Cagle spent how long preparing for this; fifteen years? All for 30% of the vote statewide and a potential loss in his own hometown. Humiliating.

[aaroncd107]

lol @ calhoun county

3 votes in

[Adam Griffin]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! By contrast, Georgia usually has 10 (opened by the DPG, with candidates who actually have resources basing themselves in the exact same areas). Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

[libertpaulian]

Abrams has Metro ATL, the micro-cities, college towns, and black areas secured.  She just needs to make sure she doesn't get TOO crushed in rural areas.

[Zaybay]

It wouldn't surprise me if Abrams won Gwinnett and Cobb. But that's not enough, as we saw with Hillary.

She'll be winning those while also turning out black voters downstate. The main PAC planning to flood the state with resources are exclusively focusing on turning out black voters in places in and around Macon, Columbus, Albany, Americus, Valdosta, and Savannah.

ETA: And Augusta and the band of rural majority black counties near it.

I'm skeptical that the votes are there (in those locations, specifically). Basically, Abrams needs everything to go in her favor (i.e. pull Clinton '16 margins in Georgia counties that swung to Clinton, and Obama '12 margins in the rest) - and then will still need an additional 70k votes on top of that to secure a majority (using the 2014 total turnout as a baseline here).

There are really only a few counties south of the metro where there is any meaningful population. The Fall Line/Black Belt (outside of Muscogee, Houston/Bibb, and Columbia/Richmond) is pretty empty. The space directly due north and south of that is as well. Of course the southern interior is empty and very hostile as well. There's the coast, of course (where I think some gains can be made)...but even if the votes can be mined out of those areas, it might only be enough to make up the difference between Carter/Nunn '14 and Obama '12 - meaning she would still need the 70k votes from elsewhere.

Sooner or later, I will be wrong - such the evolution of GA's urbanization and population growth - but I still don't believe that a Democrat can win statewide yet without true investment across the entire state (yes, that means on-the-ground activity in hostile North GA as well, which has taken almost an entire vote away for every vote gained statewide over the past 10 years).

A good example is to look at what Obama and Clinton did in NC and VA, which are comparably-sized: they had 30-50 offices across the entire state and sunk in tens of millions of dollars, along with hundreds of full-time staff. F[inks]ing Galax, VA (population 7,000) had a full-time field office that I passed by on the way to the DNC convention! Until we see that kind of activity (which doesn't exist in GA yet; field offices opening in Dahlonega, Gainesville, Rome, Dalton, Jesup, Thomasville, etc), I'm unfortunately very skeptical.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm just frustrated as an active Democrat in a part of the state that gets neglected - despite it playing a huge role in why the state shifted to the GOP in the first place - and it's very difficult to work with minimal to no resources at the local level. Despite the fact that whites are more Democratic in this part of the state (at least averaged over the past decade) than anywhere else but the urban areas and there's huge Latino growth, it's written off as Red Hell when gains could be made that would significantly weaken GOP margins. I understand part of it is because Dems don't know how to campaign outside core areas anymore and another part is the lack of resources, but alas.

Thats been whats occurring in the special elections around the country so far, so I would expect this to hold true.

[Adam Griffin]

Thats been whats occurring in the special elections around the country so far, so I would expect this to hold true.

Perhaps so, but as I've said before, GA has been bucking the trend this cycle in some ways. Nevertheless, a couple of the aforementioned urban areas (specifically Columbus, Macon and Augusta) have very naturally weak turnout and performance, which I think makes it harder to maximize vote share there than in other areas. If you look at Obama's performance and compare that to midterms - or compare the counties' populations and votes to similarly-sized counties - it's pretty abysmal.

Of course, it's even tougher to work, canvass and organize in rural areas with less population density...but in GA, I truly think it's going to take an effort encompassing all of that across the entire state to break through in the next cycle or two.

[Zaybay]

Thats been whats occurring in the special elections around the country so far, so I would expect this to hold true.

Perhaps so, but as I've said before, GA has been bucking the trend this cycle in some ways. Nevertheless, a couple of the aforementioned urban areas (specifically Columbus, Macon and Augusta) have very naturally weak turnout and performance, which I think makes it harder to maximize vote share there than in other areas. If you look at Obama's performance and compare that to midterms - or compare the counties' populations and votes to similarly-sized counties - it's pretty abysmal.

Of course, it's even tougher to work, canvass and organize in rural areas with less population density...but in GA, I truly think it's going to take an effort encompassing all of that across the entire state to break through in the next cycle or two.

Off elections have had that problem, but in November, the Ds have had a normal overperformance.