Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Zaybay]

Just went back to check, and yep: this week was basically the height of Carter's performance in polling (in terms of margin; of course, they weren't the best pollsters):

I think that has to do more with how the 2014 wave occurred. The Dems were leading in 2014 for most of it, and were ahead around now, before dropping. I would say that the opposite would occur this time, the Dem would gain as time goes on, due to the nature of the wave.

[Rookie Yinzer]

LOL.

https://twitter.com/CaseyCagle/status/1019973241283194882

https://twitter.com/CaseyCagle/status/1019973339140550659

https://twitter.com/CaseyCagle/status/1020043263334600704

I'm seriously wondering how Cagle is going to take this loss. He's been chasing this job forever. Hopefully he won't be boring and give a gracious concession speech where he immediately endorses Kemp.

[LimoLiberal]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

[libertpaulian]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

Wow, you finally post something that makes sense.

[Sestak]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

She'd also be a very attractive VP pick in 2020 for a lot of potential candidates (especially Biden or Sanders)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

She'd also be a very attractive VP pick in 2020 for a lot of potential candidates (especially Biden or Sanders)

She needs to serve her full term. I also don't want her tainted by Washington when she makes a run for the White House. 2024 or 2028 will do.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.

She'd also be a very attractive VP pick in 2020 for a lot of potential candidates (especially Biden or Sanders)

That's a waste.

[Adam Griffin]

If GA elects a Democratic Governor, literally their most important function will be to thwart another decade of gerrymandering in 2021-22* by veto; otherwise, the General Assembly likely remains under GOP control until 2032 or is only winnable via long-shot situations. Why would anybody want to eliminate a pick-up in the nation's 8th largest state that precipitates pick-up opportunities at all levels - and why would Abrams go along with it unless she was absolutely just in it for herself? LOL

*This is a situation where I could totally see the GAGOP try to drag out reapportionment until the next gubernatorial election a la SCOTUS; not sure if they could get away with it but alas

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

Umm, if Abrams wants to be in the game, she better get more than just 90% of black voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

Umm, if Abrams wants to be in the game, she better get more than just 90% of black voters.

OK, it looks like I made a slight but crucial error in memory: please substitute "nonwhite" for "black".  Then Abrams needs to win 25% of whites, have nonwhites make up 40% of the electorate, and win 90% of the latter.  This is much more doable than having a 40% black electorate, which as others have pointed out is not realistic.  My apologies for creating any confusion.  Here's a 538 article that talks about this; I'm also sure that I've seen something in local media about Abrams herself mentioning this formula, but can't find a citation.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Forget everything if Cagle is the nominee, but since Kemp is looking better and better to grab the GOP nom, I am moving this from likely R---> lean R. Abrams has a narrow but very possible uphill path against Kemp. One biggie is that Kemp is rather poor in the Atlanta area in primary performance, and he also fits the region very poorly. Due to his crazy campaign, the staying of suburbs in our column in elections even since Trump 2016 victory, and a reinforcement of the previous point given by Kemp and his outrageous personality, campaign tactics, and stances, seeing them stay with Abrams on a level similar to Hillary, if not even expanding a little like Northam is not out of the picture. If she can have good turnout here, that is a bonus too. If she can also have weaker turnout in rednecky areas due to lower enthusiasm and satisfaction in the Trump era, as well as siphoning just a couple points or so better from these areas due to her not being Hillary, that puts her in a decent spot. What would then seal the deal would be a higher black turnout and 94-96% of them in her column. If she does this, I believe she will be the winner by an incredibly slim margin on election night.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No offense, but you don’t live here. LOL. Cagle is despised by the activist/grassroots Republican base. He’s being forced down our throats by corporate interests. Him winning the nomination (which I don’t think he is going to) would not make it a slam dunk for the Republicans.

[QAnonKelly]

If Kemp wins the GE, I could see him losing in four years. He’s not a good fit, the math will be better for the D, and it’ll have been 20 years with Rs in the governor’s office

[henster]

I don't know why people are already declaring Stacey Abrams as this amazing candidate, the ads against her haven't even started. It'll be interesting how she handles the impending attacks on her money issues and how voters react to it.

[Zaybay]

Forget everything if Cagle is the nominee, but since Kemp is looking better and better to grab the GOP nom, I am moving this from likely R---> lean R. Abrams has a narrow but very possible uphill path against Kemp. One biggie is that Kemp is rather poor in the Atlanta area in primary performance, and he also fits the region very poorly. Due to his crazy campaign, the staying of suburbs in our column in elections even since Trump 2016 victory, and a reinforcement of the previous point given by Kemp and his outrageous personality, campaign tactics, and stances, seeing them stay with Abrams on a level similar to Hillary, if not even expanding a little like Northam is not out of the picture. If she can have good turnout here, that is a bonus too. If she can also have weaker turnout in rednecky areas due to lower enthusiasm and satisfaction in the Trump era, as well as siphoning just a couple points or so better from these areas due to her not being Hillary, that puts her in a decent spot. What would then seal the deal would be a higher black turnout and 94-96% of them in her column. If she does this, I believe she will be the winner by an incredibly slim margin on election night.

Tossup is more appropriate. The primary, which was competative on both sides, was won by Rs by a margin of 53-47. That is extremely close. If Ds can improve just a little, and have Kemp drag the suburbs to Abrams, then its hers for the win.

I don't know why people are already declaring Stacey Abrams as this amazing candidate, the ads against her haven't even started. It'll be interesting how she handles the impending attacks on her money issues and how voters react to it.

Because she is. Think about it. She is a charismatic, AA, woman candidate who appeals to the suburbs and Atlanta, progressives and centrists, and is practically barnstorming the state. She is also going after the rural vote, which is a good move that most forget. Its also important to note that she is building a GOTV machine for AAs and Democrats, something never done by a GA Democrat before.

The money issue might sting, but the opposition will just keep them in the Abrams camp. Cagle is the despised, unenthusiastic, scandal-plagued, establishment choice, and Kemp is a firebrand, 2A, fake southern accented, demagogue that will no doubt try to move to the center, and fail miserably, that is despised in the Atlanta Metro. Both are pretty terrible candidates.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When it's all said and done as of today, I think Kemp beats Abrams 51.5-48.5. This is my first prediction, and it may change down the line.

[_]

Tossup/Tilt-D  imo

Abrams certainly has a great shot based on her barnstorming the State and her opponents being Dumb and Dumber

[SCNCmod]

I don't know why people are already declaring Stacey Abrams as this amazing candidate, the ads against her haven't even started. It'll be interesting how she handles the impending attacks on her money issues and how voters react to it.

I remember the comment Obama made several years ago basically saying that Harris, Buttigieg, and Abrams were the standout rising stars regarding raw political talent... (imo Abrams is top of that list, followed by Buttigieg).  But Obama has that Xfactor type of talent & is probably pretty good at identifying others who have it as well.  Usually those that do have it... get better as the race get tougher- not vice versa.

[Buzz]

Kemp will be the winner tomorrow, and don’t be suprised if he wins by a healthy margin!

He received my vote!

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't know why people are already declaring Stacey Abrams as this amazing candidate, the ads against her haven't even started. It'll be interesting how she handles the impending attacks on her money issues and how voters react to it.

Because she is and has overperformed expectations already. Nobody will be voting over her money issues. It will be nothing more than an excuse for folks to use publicly so they don’t have to admit they didn’t want a black woman or to make themselves feel better for voting for Kemp if he ends up a being divisive Trump-lite candidate in the General.

[RogueBeaver]

Unrelated to statewide races, but the lunatic GOP primaried state rep Jason Spencer was on Baron Cohen's show, screamed the n-word dozens of times and bared his ass to the cameras.

[Adam Griffin]

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Cagle's response:

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And Kemp's:

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LOL

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unrelated to statewide races, but the lunatic GOP primaried state rep Jason Spencer was on Baron Cohen's show, screamed the n-word dozens of times and bared his ass to the cameras.

Oh my...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Its also important to note that she is building a GOTV machine for AAs and Democrats, something never done by a GA Democrat before.

This is not intended as any sort of knock on Abrams (she seems to be looking pretty good and has a chance), but on what planet have GA democrats never before GOTVed AAs and Democrats? An emphasis on GOTV has been a standard part of Dem campaigns since at least Obama '08 in GA (and really before then as well in general).

[_]

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Cagle's response:

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And Kemp's:

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LOL

Wow...

GO KEMP!