Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Oryxslayer]

Kemp way ahead of Cagle in a recent poll, 55%-37%.

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1019954039692365824

[Podgy the Bear]

I'm still not confident in Georgia being ready to elect a black woman statewide, but it should be very close against Kemp nonetheless. Which would be a huge boon in getting Barrow and maybe another downballot Dem across the line.

The precedent here is the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee where Harold Ford Jr. came within 3 points to win the race.  There was some coattail effect with Phil Bredesen's landslide re-election win for governor that year.  But Ford did make his message somewhat palatable to appeal to many rural white voters and pick up several of these counties.

It will be tough but with this strategy, I believe Abrams has a larger base to work with to carry her through.  At the least, this should at least elect some downballot Democrats and pick up several seats in the legislature.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp way ahead of Cagle in a recent poll, 55%-37%.

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1019954039692365824

Wow. It’s over for Cagle.

I'm still not confident in Georgia being ready to elect a black woman statewide, but it should be very close against Kemp nonetheless. Which would be a huge boon in getting Barrow and maybe another downballot Dem across the line.

The precedent here is the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee where Harold Ford Jr. came within 3 points to win the race.  There was some coattail effect with Phil Bredesen's landslide re-election win for governor that year.  But Ford did make his message somewhat palatable to appeal to many rural white voters and pick up several of these counties.

It will be tough but with this strategy, I believe Abrams has a larger base to work with to carry her through.  At the least, this should at least elect some downballot Democrats and pick up several seats in the legislature.

Abrams’ down ballot effect is going to flip at least a half dozen legislative seats in Gwinnett County alone.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember guys: InsiderAdvantage has usually been garbage:

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Don't get me wrong: each time right-wing hack pollster InsiderAdvantage releases a poll, I chuckle (like that one that showed Romney +18 [in GA] in late September 2012)...

An InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News “SuperPoll” conducted with our partners OpinionSavvy July 15-16 shows Jack Kingston with a lead over his opponent David Perdue that is just outside the survey’s margin of error.

Kingston: 46%
Perdue: 41%
Undecided: 13%

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a former GOP Congressman (and Cagle supporter):

https://twitter.com/Westmoreland_GA/status/1019951486502146049

[Rookie Yinzer]

From a former GOP Congressman (and Cagle supporter):

https://twitter.com/Westmoreland_GA/status/1019951486502146049

He must be hinting at the Perdue cousins. LOL.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Who is going to win the R runoff?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who is going to win the R runoff?

Kemp.  Everything is going his way at this point.

[QAnonKelly]

Who is going to win the R runoff?

I think Kemp will win by a pretty big margin

[Del Tachi]

Kemp also has Hunter Hill's endorsement, so that will probably help him run pretty close with Cagle in the ITP counties (Fulton and DeKalb)

[ON Progressive]

How much of the white vote do you guys think Stacey needs to win? I think 25% would be enough. Remember that Clinton did better than Obama in 2008, and Clinton actually did worse with white voters (21% vs. 23%).

[ON Progressive]

How much of the white vote do you guys think Stacey needs to win? I think 25% would be enough. Remember that Clinton did better than Obama in 2008, and Clinton actually did worse with white voters (21% vs. 23%).

I don’t know if 25% of whites would allow her to get to 50% plus one. Unless black turnout is AL-Sen 2017 levels of unprecedented. 28% or so is probably a more realistic bar.

That said, I’m pretty confident Barrow can reach that threshold among whites.

Is there any realistic path to Abrams getting even near 28% among whites barring a Roy Moore type scandal?

[Rookie Yinzer]

If the electorate make up is 58% white, 30% black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian, and 2% other Abrams would need:

25% of the white vote
93% of the black vote (I chose a number between the 89% Hillary and Jason Carter got and the 95% Obama 2012 got and then bumped it up one percentage point since I KNOW black women will be mobilizing heavy for Abrams)
70% of the Hispanic vote
60% of the Asian vote
55% of other

That puts her right at 50.1%

[QAnonKelly]

Assuming Kemp is the nominee, I think Abrams can win Cobb

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

[Tender Branson]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

40% black composition is impossible.

[QAnonKelly]

Not if she has high turnout and Kemp being on the ticket makes some educated white suburbanites either stay home or leave Governor blank.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

That’s just not going to happen. 32-33 percent is the max. And it’s probably going to be 30. She’s already polling at 88 percent with black voters vs Kemp when most Generic D’s are in the high 70s and low 80s at this point so it’s looking like once November rolls around she’ll get 93-95. Especially with multiple PACS targeting rural blacks with precision.

Not if she has high turnout and Kemp being on the ticket makes some educated white suburbanites either stay home or leave Governor blank.

Brian Kemp is going to pivot to the center. He’s not even close to being as morally repugnant as Roy Moore. The genteel whites will vote for him.

[Adam Griffin]

I believe that Abrams has previously talked about a 40-90-25 strategy: get black turnout to be 40% of the electorate and win 90% of it, and win 25% of the rest.  (40% x 90%) + (60% x 25%) = 51%.

There are inarguably much easier pathways than this; this route is impossible. Among eligible black adult citizens, the black population is only about 25% of the potential electorate (the incarceration/parole/probation situation is largely responsible for this number being so low). Yet black voters have hit 30% in the past three presidential elections, and even 28-29% in the past two midterms. Black voters are already a more powerful electorate (in relative terms) than any other group in GA and are performing at 120% or more of their weight. For blacks to be 40% of the electorate, you'd need them voting at 160% of their proportionate eligible levels; as an example (though not the best), that'd be like whites comprising 96% of the electorate this fall.

I'd also point out that getting more than 25% of the non-black vote is pretty easy and will probably happen automatically; should be closer to 30% Democratic if not over that ([60% white * 0.22 D] + [10% other * 0.60 D] = 27.7%).

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ And - while it's yet to be confirmed for the general (though my suspicions were confirmed in the Democratic primary turnout this year) - there will likely be a rebound and/or increase among white and (definitely) non-black POC in both turnout and support this fall.

This might eat into any gains made by black voters as a share of the overall electorate (though obviously it will not harm Abrams' vote share; quite the contrary) and actually reduce the black share of the electorate potentially.

At minimum, it could reduce the share of the Democratic electorate that is black (via increased non-black, non-white turnout and white support; this phenomenon dropped the share of black voters in Dem primary from 67% in 2014 to 60% in 2018, despite ~100k more black voters turning out in '18) and could keep any gains made in black turnout flat as a percentage of the electorate (via increased non-black, non-white turnout).

[LimoLiberal]

Um.... holy sh*t

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/20/us/politics/trump-endorsement-kemp.html

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[KingSweden]

Um.... holy sh*t

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/20/us/politics/trump-endorsement-kemp.html

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Whoa!

Though with all the hits on Cagle I’m skeptical he’s the stronger candidate

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yassss Queen Stacey! I’m hosting a GOTV Launch for her next week. Let’s go!

[_]

Um.... holy sh*t

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/20/us/politics/trump-endorsement-kemp.html

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Ladies and Gentlemen, laugh at Bagel right now.

Evans would be leading

However, according to Griff, Carter was ahead in polls at this time.  Still I think this is a rather great piece of news for Abrams/Dems.

[Adam Griffin]

Just went back to check, and yep: this week was basically the height of Carter's performance in polling (in terms of margin; of course, they weren't the best pollsters):