Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Doimper]

And here's the two-party primary vote shares by CD:



If this wave were big enough and the party had quality candidates with organization in several of these districts (1, 10 & 12)

Do we?

[Adam Griffin]

And here's the two-party primary vote shares by CD:



If this wave were big enough and the party had quality candidates with organization in several of these districts (1, 10 & 12)

Do we?

It can be argued that we have decent candidates in 2 of the 3 at minimum.

In the 12th, it's Francys Johnson (former head of the GA NAACP). He's a great speaker, but I have no idea the extent of his campaign's quality. I would assume he has sufficient resources to run a quality campaign, however.

In the 1st, it's Lisa Ring. Former Bernie delegate and organizer, she is competent at this kind of work. I haven't been following it too closely, but I know she's putting in more organizational work (and raising more money) than any other Democratic candidate there in several cycles.

In the 10th, Tabitha Johnson-Green. I have no idea who this is other than she's a nurse and business owner; assuming based on local reporting that she's a no-name who squeezed through like a variety of other candidates up and down the ballot did this year (specifically in this race, female + top of the ballot status + black-sounding surname against two "weird" names). Chalis Montgomery was the best bet for this race, but she only got around 25% of the vote. To be fair, this was the least opportune of the three districts anyway, but the primary upset likely blew any chance here. What really sucks, however, is that it was in this CD where GA Dems managed to pick up 2 HDs around Athens in special elections; lots of Democratic surging going on there locally.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I truly believe Chalis Montgomery had a real shot to contest the 10th District. At least keeping Hice on his toes but some no-name candidate with absolutely no grasp of public policy (she said in a debate she was against raising minimum wage because everything else would go up ) won because she had the first name on the ballot. The district is made up of 25 rural counties, that’s a lot of ground to cover especially with an electorate that is full of low propensity voters.

Maybe Francys Johnson in the 12th can make some serious in roads. He is closely tied to Abrams and there is allegedly going to be money coming from the national party specifically for rural black voters.

Looks like Rob Woodall will be re-elected comfortably but at least the race will be pumping new voters to our statewide races.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cagle raised $3.7 million, $1.3 million on hand

Kemp raised $1.6 million, $700,000 on hand

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-cagle-sharpens-fundraising-edge-over-kemp-gop-race/bHYERGhblkVNZ5CrTiN34N/

[Zaybay]

Cagle raised $3.7 million, $1.3 million on hand

Kemp raised $1.6 million, $700,000 on hand

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-cagle-sharpens-fundraising-edge-over-kemp-gop-race/bHYERGhblkVNZ5CrTiN34N/

Hmmm, I see. Looks like I want Kemp to win the primary now.

[QAnonKelly]

Lol they’re wasting so much of their money. Abrams has more cash than both of them

[Adam Griffin]

I wouldn't be fooled by these figures. For Q2, just the two GOP runoff candidates combined pulled almost two-thirds of the haul between them and Abrams (and I'm sure there was a decent chunk in the first half of this quarter going to the others as well, so likely over two-thirds went to the GOP in reality).

That will not only consolidate but likely intensify after the end of the month (Abrams' will as well). I'm expecting Abrams to be outraised 2:1 in Q3. They're catching up but it's unfortunate they spent so much money early on (and in retrospect, probably also unnecessary).

[QAnonKelly]

That will not only consolidate but likely intensify after the end of the month (Abrams' will as well). I'm expecting Abrams to be outraised 2:1 in Q3. They're catching up but it's unfortunate they spent so much money early on (and in retrospect, probably also unnecessary).

Do you mean Abrams spending money unnecessarily early on or Cagle and Kemp?

[Adam Griffin]

That will not only consolidate but likely intensify after the end of the month (Abrams' will as well). I'm expecting Abrams to be outraised 2:1 in Q3. They're catching up but it's unfortunate they spent so much money early on (and in retrospect, probably also unnecessary).

Do you mean Abrams spending money unnecessarily early on or Cagle and Kemp?

Abrams

[QAnonKelly]

That will not only consolidate but likely intensify after the end of the month (Abrams' will as well). I'm expecting Abrams to be outraised 2:1 in Q3. They're catching up but it's unfortunate they spent so much money early on (and in retrospect, probably also unnecessary).

Do you mean Abrams spending money unnecessarily early on or Cagle and Kemp?

Abrams

 I guess hindsight is 20/20 and her team thought the primary would be closer but spending so much early on has been her only real mistake

[BundouYMB]

That will not only consolidate but likely intensify after the end of the month (Abrams' will as well). I'm expecting Abrams to be outraised 2:1 in Q3. They're catching up but it's unfortunate they spent so much money early on (and in retrospect, probably also unnecessary).

Do you mean Abrams spending money unnecessarily early on or Cagle and Kemp?

Abrams

 I guess hindsight is 20/20 and her team thought the primary would be closer but spending so much early on has been her only real mistake

I don't think it was a mistake because most of it was spent developing their fearsome ground operation, which is still somewhat active after the primary. If it was mostly spent on TV ads it would be wasted, but the ground op development will still be useful in November.

[Rookie Yinzer]

^ I agree. Abrams is building a GOTV apparatus that we can use not only in November but in 2020.

Abrams is going to have more money coming in to help her though. Democracy in Color (officially PowerPAC Georgia) is planning on spending $10 million to turn out low propensity African-Americans in rural Georgia:

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https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/These-Bay-Area-activists-helped-Stacey-Abrams-win-12938715.php

The DNC will also be investing in rural black turnout too. Combine that with what I am sure will be increased AA and Hispanic turnout in the Metro, Metro whites and Asians defecting, and a potential depressed vote in white rural areas with Corrupt Casey as the nominee, and we've got ourselves a race! I'm very excited.

[TheSaint250]

Cagle says the quiet part out loud:

He's not wrong though.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

[QAnonKelly]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

Love the two random black guys in the crowd

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

What a dork.

[IceSpear]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

What a dork.

I know most people aren't on Youtube to watch political ads, but Cagle's channel nevertheless stands out as particularly sad. 60 subscribers? Older videos with 8 views? 8 views?!

Enthusiasm for this guy is clearly sky high, lol.

[Zaybay]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

WHAT IS HE DOING?! Why? This makes no sense!
Kemp was positioning himself as the Firebrand before the primary and now, Cagle was suppost to be the moderate statesmen. Why is he doing this? Why is he discarding the brand he has made to appeal to the suburbs? The only reason must be hes down, but this will just get rid of the voters who didnt like Kemp's shotgun and son-in-law to be.

Now that I look at this primary, it is shaping up to be a repeat of the Dem primary. Two different candidates spar, one paints themself as the moderate, the other as the firethrower, then the moderate changes positions to be the firethrower and make the previous firethrower the moderate. Im thinking Kemp is gonna win this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

WHAT IS HE DOING?! Why? This makes no sense!
Kemp was positioning himself as the Firebrand before the primary and now, Cagle was suppost to be the moderate statesmen. Why is he doing this? Why is he discarding the brand he has made to appeal to the suburbs? The only reason must be hes down, but this will just get rid of the voters who didnt like Kemp's shotgun and son-in-law to be.

Now that I look at this primary, it is shaping up to be a repeat of the Dem primary. Two different candidates spar, one paints themself as the moderate, the other as the firethrower, then the moderate changes positions to be the firethrower and make the previous firethrower the moderate. Im thinking Kemp is gonna win this.

I'm leaning that way too.  There's almost a sense of desperation coming from Cagle at this point.

[QAnonKelly]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

WHAT IS HE DOING?! Why? This makes no sense!
Kemp was positioning himself as the Firebrand before the primary and now, Cagle was suppost to be the moderate statesmen. Why is he doing this? Why is he discarding the brand he has made to appeal to the suburbs? The only reason must be hes down, but this will just get rid of the voters who didnt like Kemp's shotgun and son-in-law to be.

Now that I look at this primary, it is shaping up to be a repeat of the Dem primary. Two different candidates spar, one paints themself as the moderate, the other as the firethrower, then the moderate changes positions to be the firethrower and make the previous firethrower the moderate. Im thinking Kemp is gonna win this.

I'm leaning that way too.  There's almost a sense of desperation coming from Cagle at this point.

Kemp has had the momentum for a while now

[junior chįmp]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

What a dork.

rofl...even his sons are like wtf are we doing here

[Adam Griffin]

Hilariously enough, this campaign persona is closer to the real Cagle than what he's been pretending to be all this time.

[QAnonKelly]

Hilariously enough, this campaign persona is closer to the real Cagle than what he's been pretending to be all this time.

If he's trying to pivot, it's happening too late in the runoff. He might be doing it to get a start if he gets through the GE.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Clay Tippins says it his mission to damage Casey Cagle and there are more snippets of the tape coming.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.macon.com/news/politics-government/election/article214774795.html

FF.

I hope Cagle wins the primary despite me wanting to relish in the embarrassment of the obscenely bankrolled corrupt fraud being denied his coronation.

[Blair]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.