Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[DrScholl]

The idea that the white candidate is the right candidate is flawed. Evans lost by a landslide yet we are supposed to believe that she was the better candidate? That is absurd and more than a little racist. Old Georgia is gone and it is important to remember that Republicans initially broke through in the state by running up score in the Metro area not the rurals. Roy Barnes ran an Old Georgia campaign and lost big. Jason Carter did the same thing and lost. It seems as if trying something different is in order.

[Ohioguy29]

I admittedly don’t know much about this race and haven’t read a lot of this thread but Dems are blowing heir chances by nominating far left candidates in lean red-purple states. Maybe Abrams is good for Hawaii or something but in Georgia, Evans was the right call.

All things being equal I think the moderate is the better choice but especially in this case

Many of Sherrod Brown's views are as left-wing as Abrams', yet he's been elected statewide four times in the "lean red-purple" state of Ohio.  Oh, and as a note...Ohio is whiter than Georgia, AND Georgia voted to the LEFT of Ohio in 2016.

1. Image matter more than reality. Ohio voters think of Sherrod Brown as a bipartisan moderate, not a flaming liberal. Abrams' image and rhetoric makes her seem much more socially liberal than Sherrod. However, she may turn this around some for the general; she has a long record of bipartisanship to brag about.

2. Black voters are actually less liberal on average than white voters. More Democratic=/=more liberal. Don't confuse the two.

All the said, Abrams is the best candidate who was running and I wish her luck in November! Evans seemed nice but she was running a lazy campaign; to win, we need someone who will actually put in the work and GOTV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I admittedly don’t know much about this race and haven’t read a lot of this thread but Dems are blowing heir chances by nominating far left candidates in lean red-purple states. Maybe Abrams is good for Hawaii or something but in Georgia, Evans was the right call.

All things being equal I think the moderate is the better choice but especially in this case

Many of Sherrod Brown's views are as left-wing as Abrams', yet he's been elected statewide four times in the "lean red-purple" state of Ohio.  Oh, and as a note...Ohio is whiter than Georgia, AND Georgia voted to the LEFT of Ohio in 2016.

1. Image matter more than reality. Ohio voters think of Sherrod Brown as a bipartisan moderate, not a flaming liberal. Abrams' image and rhetoric makes her seem much more socially liberal than Sherrod. However, she may turn this around some for the general; she has a long record of bipartisanship to brag about.

2. Black voters are actually less liberal on average than white voters. More Democratic=/=more liberal. Don't confuse the two.

All the said, Abrams is the best candidate who was running and I wish her luck in November! Evans seemed nice but she was running a lazy campaign; to win, we need someone who will actually put in the work and GOTV.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538: Can Stacey Abrams Really Turn Georgia Blue?

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[BundouYMB]

I admittedly don’t know much about this race and haven’t read a lot of this thread but Dems are blowing heir chances by nominating far left candidates in lean red-purple states. Maybe Abrams is good for Hawaii or something but in Georgia, Evans was the right call.

All things being equal I think the moderate is the better choice but especially in this case

Many of Sherrod Brown's views are as left-wing as Abrams', yet he's been elected statewide four times in the "lean red-purple" state of Ohio.  Oh, and as a note...Ohio is whiter than Georgia, AND Georgia voted to the LEFT of Ohio in 2016.

1. Image matter more than reality. Ohio voters think of Sherrod Brown as a bipartisan moderate, not a flaming liberal. Abrams' image and rhetoric makes her seem much more socially liberal than Sherrod. However, she may turn this around some for the general; she has a long record of bipartisanship to brag about.

2. Black voters are actually less liberal on average than white voters. More Democratic=/=more liberal. Don't confuse the two.

All the said, Abrams is the best candidate who was running and I wish her luck in November! Evans seemed nice but she was running a lazy campaign; to win, we need someone who will actually put in the work and GOTV.

What image and rhetoric? This is the Abrams ad that was ran BY FAR the most ahead of the primary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W81N02yQ2uo

"Daughter of methodist ministers wants to fund education" <- yeah, I'm sure voters got the impression she's a flaming liberal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

[Ohioguy29]

I admittedly don’t know much about this race and haven’t read a lot of this thread but Dems are blowing heir chances by nominating far left candidates in lean red-purple states. Maybe Abrams is good for Hawaii or something but in Georgia, Evans was the right call.

All things being equal I think the moderate is the better choice but especially in this case

Many of Sherrod Brown's views are as left-wing as Abrams', yet he's been elected statewide four times in the "lean red-purple" state of Ohio.  Oh, and as a note...Ohio is whiter than Georgia, AND Georgia voted to the LEFT of Ohio in 2016.

1. Image matter more than reality. Ohio voters think of Sherrod Brown as a bipartisan moderate, not a flaming liberal. Abrams' image and rhetoric makes her seem much more socially liberal than Sherrod. However, she may turn this around some for the general; she has a long record of bipartisanship to brag about.

2. Black voters are actually less liberal on average than white voters. More Democratic=/=more liberal. Don't confuse the two.

All the said, Abrams is the best candidate who was running and I wish her luck in November! Evans seemed nice but she was running a lazy campaign; to win, we need someone who will actually put in the work and GOTV.

What image and rhetoric? This is the Abrams ad that was ran BY FAR the most ahead of the primary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W81N02yQ2uo

"Daughter of methodist ministers wants to fund education" <- yeah, I'm sure voters got the impression she's a flaming liberal.

That ad is great, and I hope Abrams keeps up with ads like that! However, the media has been painting a different picture of her. I was also rather unimpressed with her Pod Save America appearance, although I recognize she was trying to appeal to the PSA audience there. Her image as being uber liberal is largely not her fault, a lot of it is a weird media narrative that people have latched onto, but it doesn't matter; she has to break through that image nevertheless. I think she will to some degree (and as you point out, already is), but not as effectively as Sherrod Brown simply because he is the ultimate master of that and nobody can equal him. And because she isn't a middle aged white man with a gruff voice.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a county map for the Democratic SoS primary?

[scutosaurus]

Is there a county map for the Democratic SoS primary?

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/74658/Web02-state.202568/#/cid/22020

Barrow won every county except for Newton and Rockdale.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a county map for the Democratic SoS primary?

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/74658/Web02-state.202568/#/cid/22020

Barrow won every county except for Newton and Rockdale.

Love Dee. I'm glad she won Newton.

Thought she would win DeKalb but she probably only won the black precincts in South DeKalb and got BTFO among non-black POC and whites in North DeKalb.

[Adam Griffin]

For what it's worth, I never received any outreach from down-ballot candidates in terms of mail, calls, etc save for two: one of them was John Barrow. Being one of a relative handful of people in a non-metro county who would be identified as a "Strong Democrat" in Democratic voter files, that tells me he was one of the very few down-ballot who ran a legitimate statewide campaign targeting as many Democrats as possible.

[_]

For what it's worth, I never received any outreach from down-ballot candidates in terms of mail, calls, etc save for two: one of them was John Barrow. Being one of a relative handful of people in a non-metro county who would be identified as a "Strong Democrat" in Democratic voter files, that tells me he was one of the very few down-ballot who ran a legitimate statewide campaign targeting as many Democrats as possible.

Well that sounds good for Barrow in November, he'll probably run a truly statewide campaign in the GE as well.

Who was the other Candidate who you received stuff from?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

Update: Bullock has dropped out in favor of Erick Allen, the candidate she defeated in the primary:

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[junior chįmp]

https://www.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1002017905565937665

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't think Abrams will ever lead in any poll.

She has repeatedly said the voters she is trying to turn out will not be polled. Low-propensity, rural African Americans and Spanish-language Hispanic households in Gwinnett, Hall, Cobb, etc will not be on anybody's radar.  I'm not particularly concerned about polls heading into this election.

[KingSweden]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

Update: Bullock has dropped out in favor of Erick Allen, the candidate she defeated in the primary:

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The bus went under 50 and exploded, clearly

[DrScholl]

I don't think Abrams will ever lead in any poll.

She has repeatedly said the voters she is trying to turn out will not be polled. Low-propensity, rural African Americans and Spanish-language Hispanic households in Gwinnett, Hall, Cobb, etc will not be on anybody's radar.  I'm not particularly concerned about polls heading into this election.

That sounds about right. The fact that Democrats out voted Republicans in the primary in Gwinnett and came very close in Cobb speaks to the unique turnout operation that she is building.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams internal has her up 48-43 over Cagle and 49-40 over Kemp.

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https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/05/31/abrams-leads-both-republicans-in-first-general-election-poll/

[Politician]

Charlie Cook thinks this is Safe R, and I have no reason to question his expertise.

Holy crap, does he actually update his ratings to reflect reality? This is a guy who has Pennsylvania as Lean D and Illinois as a toss-up.

[ON Progressive]

Charlie Cook thinks this is Safe R, and I have no reason to question his expertise.

Holy crap, does he actually update his ratings to reflect reality? This is a guy who has Pennsylvania as Lean D and Illinois as a toss-up.

He hasn't updated his gubernatorial ratings in months, and it's annoying.

[Gass3268]

I don't even know if Cook does the ratings anymore, does Dave Wasserman do almost everything there now?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is in charge bit he's not day to day anymore

[junior chįmp]

Charlie Cook thinks this is Safe R, and I have no reason to question his expertise.

Holy crap, does he actually update his ratings to reflect reality? This is a guy who has Pennsylvania as Lean D and Illinois as a toss-up.

The "experts" are going to blow 2018 because they are making predictions based off of the assumption that the status quo which has existed under our current party system will continue to exist and be reflected in upcoming elections. They seem to think that this muh polarization and culture war will keep going on forever but it won't. The Reagan era is over and and anyone who makes predictions thinking the same Red state / Blue state dichtonomy that has existed since the 2000s is a dope.

[Virginiá]

The "experts" are going to blow 2018 because they are making predictions based off of the assumption that the status quo which has existed under our current party system will continue to exist and be reflected in upcoming elections. They seem to think that this muh polarization and culture war will keep going on forever but it won't. The Reagan era is over and and anyone who makes predictions thinking the same Red state / Blue state dichtonomy that has existed since the 2000s is a dope.

But wouldn't there be varying levels of truth to the old way of thinking about things until a new order is established? The only time since the country has been powered by electricity where the political landscape blew up practically overnight was during the Great Depression, and even then, despite Democrats taking over almost every single state for at least a brief while, a lot of them starting reverting back to form by the end of the 30s. It doesn't seem like there is any GD-level event yet to disrupt the system that much.

And even if a realignment is right around the corner, it doesn't seem like it is here yet. 2020 would sound like a better bet for that. And still, even if that is the case, realignments are still partially built on existing voting habits. Reagan's was built on the existing GOP coalition + working class whites, which had started shifting years beforehand. A Democratic realignment now would be built on Millennials and college educated voters, with some sizable chunk of working class voters probably breaking away from the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has low approvals and never been above 50, which hasn't happened. Obama and Bush II have reached 50. So, most of the purple states NV, FL,  OH as well as WI, MI are up for grabs. GA and AZ are sleepers