Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[scutosaurus]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

Wow. I knew the ATL metro was trending Democratic fast, but that's insane. It also reinforces my opinion that GA-7 would flip before GA-6; Rob Woodall should be getting worried.

[Adam Griffin]

If anybody is interested in comparing the % of ballots by county that were Democratic in 2010 and 2014, here is my nifty creation from a few years ago (just click on each county for figures):

Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014

Note: the link above shows the results for all votes (EV & ED) and is a two-way model (excludes Non-Partisan ballots).

Note: the colors seen on that map are indicative of swing, and not indicative of which party had the most ballots cast in 2014.

To see the same map with each county shaded based on which party had more primary ballots cast in 2014, click here.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

[Adam Griffin]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

[Dr. Arch]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

[libertpaulian]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

[Skill and Chance]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

Not necessarily, it's quite possible that GA is moving to even PVI overnight like VA did. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Georgia is more likely to flip in 2020 than it is in 2018. There is a very large age gap in Georgia voting, and young people are not likely to turn out very well in 2018, even with Abrams's campaign being hyper-focused on the youth vote.

[Canis]

If Cagle is the nominee I know Abrams campaign is great and all I just don't see her winning. But if Cagle wins it will be narrow and with georgia's leftward lurch that is expected to accelerate in 2020 and beyond he will be in serious trouble come 2022 and I think Kemp would most likely lose against Abrams

[libertpaulian]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

Not necessarily, it's quite possible that GA is moving to even PVI overnight like VA did. 

No matter the national mood, GA flipping this year would be analogous to VA 2005/2006.

[Rookie Yinzer]

At this point I want Kemp to be the nominee. I believe he will activate the Dem base while also turning off enough GOPers that they’ll stay home, leave it blank, hold their nose for Abrams, etc.

A few of our seasoned Georgia posters have made mention that Kemp would not govern as far to the right as he pretends while Cagle who pretends to be the sensible adult in the room is really a hard-right ideologue. So if Kemp wins it won’t be that bad.

[Adam Griffin]

So here are 15 relatively prominent counties (either by absolute population or relative population to their portions of the state) that I've already tabulated, with 2014 and 2018 margins, total raw vote for the two cycles and the swing in EV between the two cycles. These 15 counties comprise 51% of the state's 2010 population (likely closer to 55% today).

New fun fact: Savannah (Chatham County) apparently has the second-biggest swing of the bigger counties, behind Gwinnett and outpacing Cobb.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

[Rookie Yinzer]

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

[Adam Griffin]

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

Sure thing - I'm gonna finish up the southern metro later this evening, along with Augusta and Valdosta and maybe a couple of other counties.

[GlobeSoc]

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

Sure thing - I'm gonna finish up the southern metro later this evening, along with Augusta and Valdosta and maybe a couple of other counties.

Could you do Quitman and Fannin counties? I want to see how Obama-Trump Georgia and the northern rural counties are behaving

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can you do some counties that have a high black population?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So here are 15 relatively prominent counties (either by absolute population or relative population to their portions of the state) that I've already tabulated, with 2014 and 2018 margins, total raw vote for the two cycles and the swing in EV between the two cycles. These 15 counties comprise 51% of the state's 2010 population (likely closer to 55% today).

New fun fact: Savannah (Chatham County) apparently has the second-biggest swing of the bigger counties, behind Gwinnett and outpacing Cobb.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

What could explain the much smaller increase for Cherokee compared to the other metro counties?

[Roronoa D. Law]

So here are 15 relatively prominent counties (either by absolute population or relative population to their portions of the state) that I've already tabulated, with 2014 and 2018 margins, total raw vote for the two cycles and the swing in EV between the two cycles. These 15 counties comprise 51% of the state's 2010 population (likely closer to 55% today).

New fun fact: Savannah (Chatham County) apparently has the second-biggest swing of the bigger counties, behind Gwinnett and outpacing Cobb.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

What could explain the much smaller increase for Cherokee compared to the other metro counties?

Its the whitest county in the metro.

[GlobeSoc]

VA 2006

[Adam Griffin]

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Calhoun	95	152	57.9%	42.1%	73.0%	33.6%	23.6
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fannin	1329	1568	8.1%	91.5%	12.2%	86.5%	9.1
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Hancock	933	712	96.1%	3.6%	95.8%	3.9%	0.6
Henry	4819	8390	26.1%	73.1%	50.5%	48.8%	48.7
Lowndes	3328	3139	32.7%	67.2%	34.8%	64.6%	4.7
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Newton	3267	3356	51.7%	47.3%	56.8%	40.9%	11.5
Quitman	235	192	67.7%	23.8%	52.6%	44.3%	35.6
Randolph	362	606	81.5%	18.5%	75.7%	21.3%	8.6
Richmond	7903	7467	71.0%	27.2%	67.0%	30.2%	7.0
Rockdale	3705	5317	51.3%	48.4%	56.6%	41.3%	12.4
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

Added

Could you do Quitman and Fannin counties? I want to see how Obama-Trump Georgia and the northern rural counties are behaving

Added

Can you do some counties that have a high black population?

5 blackest counties (measured by % pop) are now added: Hancock, Dougherty, Clayton, Calhoun & Randolph

[Rookie Yinzer]

Henry County

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yeah Fayette County is going to flip in 1 or 2 cycles. Strange since Carlson called it one of the most conservative counties in the country.   

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I wonder why dems are underperforming 2014 in Richmond county. I understand the rural black counties as many black people have been moving out of them to a city / suburb, but why Richmond?

Also, what would happen to Georgia's politics if Amazon put a headquarters in Atlanta?

[Adam Griffin]

I wonder why dems are underperforming 2014 in Richmond county. I understand the rural black counties as many black people have been moving out of them to a city / suburb, but why Richmond?

There's a decent amount of precedent in the three Fall Line urban counties (Muscogee, Bibb & Richmond) for significant under-performance in recent elections in various measurements. Whether it's lower turnout overall (which all 3 counties have this cycle in EV compared to four years ago; all 3 had fewer voters in 2014 than in 2010 despite only Bibb shrinking in pop) or a relatively large collapse in Democratic support in midterms compared to other urban clusters, Democrats have a hard time relying on votes in these counties to be there when needed most.

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, here are 40 45 counties, comprising close to three-quarters of the state's population. I'm stopping here, lol. If anybody else wants to help fill in the blanks, let me know and I can point you to the relevant spreadsheets/zip files.

Just for some additional info: Clinton won these combined jurisdictions by a little over 7 points in 2016 (Obama won by 2 in 2012); the approximate 2018 EV primary composition has Democrats up by 8, which means Democrats are meeting/exceeding presidential representation in a midterm primary. These combined jurisdictions were 54% White, 32% Black VAP in 2010.

The rest of the state is close to 75% white VAP, though, so there could be comparable off-sets in the remainder of the state.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Baldwin	1522	1557	45.6%	52.4%	54.3%	44.6%	16.5
Bartow	1585	1834	12.4%	86.8%	21.0%	77.6%	17.8
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Bulloch	1823	2349	33.5%	64.7%	41.5%	57.4%	15.3
Calhoun	95	152	57.9%	42.1%	73.0%	33.6%	23.6
Catoosa	989	1548	11.6%	88.1%	20.6%	76.9%	20.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Chattooga	1073	684	50.0%	46.1%	36.0%	62.8%	30.7
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Columbia	2938	6098	13.4%	86.4%	19.6%	78.9%	13.7
Coweta	2203	3552	22.7%	77.0%	30.6%	68.6%	16.3
Dade	602	686	15.9%	84.1%	9.7%	89.9%	12.0
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Douglas	3327	3770	34.1%	65.6%	52.2%	47.3%	36.4
Elbert	623	1241	27.3%	71.3%	24.8%	74.2%	5.4
Fannin	1329	1568	8.1%	91.5%	12.2%	86.5%	9.1
Fayette	-----	5283	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Floyd	1793	2762	23.3%	76.4%	27.7%	68.9%	11.9
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Glynn	3899	3669	17.7%	81.7%	30.7%	68.2%	26.5
Gordon	931	1240	13.4%	86.1%	19.0%	80.9%	10.8
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	4442	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Hancock	933	712	96.1%	3.6%	95.8%	3.9%	0.6
Henry	4819	8390	26.1%	73.1%	50.5%	48.8%	48.7
Houston	3843	4347	32.2%	64.9%	41.9%	57.1%	17.5
Laurens	1251	1882	42.2%	57.5%	38.4%	59.8%	6.1
Lowndes	3328	3139	32.7%	67.2%	34.8%	64.6%	4.7
Murray	801	531	27.1%	71.8%	15.1%	84.7%	24.9
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Newton	3267	3356	51.7%	47.3%	56.8%	40.9%	11.5
Paulding	3506	5653	13.7%	85.4%	19.1%	79.6%	11.2
Quitman	235	192	67.7%	23.8%	52.6%	44.3%	35.6
Rabun	1617	2320	16.0%	83.1%	15.1%	84.8%	2.6
Randolph	362	606	81.5%	18.5%	75.7%	21.3%	8.6
Richmond	7903	7467	71.0%	27.2%	67.0%	30.2%	7.0
Rockdale	3705	5317	51.3%	48.4%	56.6%	41.3%	12.4
Tift	1765	1540	16.7%	82.8%	25.5%	74.4%	17.2
Walker	1341	826	11.2%	88.7%	17.7%	81.5%	13.7
Whitfield	-----	1259	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5