Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I know there's probably an answer somewhere else on the thread, but I'll ask anyway.

I read a lot of the 'old democratic' machine in Georgia is supporting Stacey Evans- is there any reason why they favour her? Abrams seems like a much better candidate based on what I've seen of the two.

They don't see a path without converting Trump/GOP voters and Abrams has been very open about not courting them. She is also a black woman, and many of them do not believe she will win statewide. I was one of those people, but a series of events changed my perspective.

I do think it's telling that the vast majority of the Black Legislative Caucus did not endorse her, and in addition to that chose some guy whose name I can't even remember to be the Minority Leader instead of Abrams' chosen successor Minority Whip Carolyn Hugley. Some of her opposition from her former colleagues seems to be more personal than the uphill battle she'll face as a black woman.

I'm going to be honest - Stacey Abrams really rubs me the wrong way. Something about her is off. It's really weird to see so many people who worked with her endorsing Evans, and it always makes me suspicious when I see a politician getting more support nationally than locally.

She seems more organized and intelligent than Evans so I think she could be a better governor, but I don't know man. Something just seems off to me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I know there's probably an answer somewhere else on the thread, but I'll ask anyway.

I read a lot of the 'old democratic' machine in Georgia is supporting Stacey Evans- is there any reason why they favour her? Abrams seems like a much better candidate based on what I've seen of the two.

They don't see a path without converting Trump/GOP voters and Abrams has been very open about not courting them. She is also a black woman, and many of them do not believe she will win statewide. I was one of those people, but a series of events changed my perspective.

I do think it's telling that the vast majority of the Black Legislative Caucus did not endorse her, and in addition to that chose some guy whose name I can't even remember to be the Minority Leader instead of Abrams' chosen successor Minority Whip Carolyn Hugley. Some of her opposition from her former colleagues seems to be more personal than the uphill battle she'll face as a black woman.

I'm going to be honest - Stacey Abrams really rubs me the wrong way. Something about her is off. It's really weird to see so many people who worked with her endorsing Evans, and it always makes me suspicious when I see a politician getting more support nationally than locally.

She seems more organized and intelligent than Evans so I think she could be a better governor, but I don't know man. Something just seems off to me.

I kinda get her turning to the national Democratic apparatus, because the establishment here is very resistant to her candidacy. At least she can say she is (barely) still raising more in-state money than Evans, I guess...

I've had people that have had dealings with Abrams straight up tell me she's an.... in their words, an asshole. LOL. Apparently, she co-opted a program idea on Kinship Care (relatives and non-relatives taking care of children that are not their own) and forced the lady who brought her the idea out of it completely. Others have told me their encounters with her were off putting. I am still supporting her because her GOTV machine is much more robust and ready to go on May 23rd. She's a better messenger than Evans, and will probably get more done with the GOP, but I have no delusions about how Abrams may be behind closed doors.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How is Brian Kemp a real person

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1cfjh6VfE

Why do Republicans always destroy things in their ads? Oh wait, I just remembered, it's because GOP primary voters are irrational, bloodthirsty, and tribalistic. Maybe Blankenship could have had more appeal if he blew up bags of cocaine in his ads.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Saturday, 154,781 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia. A fairly substantial jump in the Democratic vote via Saturday voting (GOP advantage drops, from 4.95 points to 3.89 points):

Votes	%	Party
78256	50.56	Republican
72231	46.67	Democratic
4294	2.77	Non-Partisan

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 20.5%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 12.6%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Rookie Yinzer]

I believe this week will be better for Dems, since the final week is when counties open up more EV locations. People are going to wait to vote when it’s convenient for them and traveling all the way to a central location in the county is not ideal for everyone.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

[GeorgiaModerate]

We have a somewhat interesting Republican primary here in SD-27, which is mostly coterminous with Forsyth County.  The incumbent, Michael Williams, stepped aside to run (badly) for Governor.  The three GOP candidates (Brian Tam, Greg Dolezal, and Bill Fielder) are all local businessmen trying to out-conservative each other.  There's also a Democrat running, but in this district the GOP nominee is certain to win in November.

The race seems to have become kind of a referendum on the proposed new city of Sharon Springs in the southeast corner of Forsyth, essentially everything south of SR 20 and east of 400.  (At present, Cumming is the only incorporated city in the county and contains only a small portion of its population.)  All three candidates are on record as opposing the new city, but Tam and Dolezal have some history in the county government -- and with each other -- about it.  Tam is a former long-time county commissioner and has been strongly opposed to Sharon Springs for some time, and has made that opposition a main focus of his campaign.  Dolezal was a member of the county planning commission, and in that role was involved in the creation of some planning districts that would make it easier to create new cities.  As a result, Tam got Dolezal fired from the planning commission.  They're not very fond of each other, to say the least, and both men have spent considerable time attacking each other.  Fielder, the third candidate, has a lower profile and is mainly running as "the only pro-Trump" candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

Are you going to vote in the Georgia primaries? If so, who are you thinking about voting?

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

Are you going to vote in the Georgia primaries? If so, who are you thinking about voting?

Definitely.  In past primaries I've usually requested an R ballot because it's the only way to have a meaningful effect on my local races (I live in Forsyth County), but I've recently sworn off voting for any Republicans, so this year I'll get a D ballot.  I'll probably vote Evans for governor; haven't really looked at the LG candidates yet.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

Are you going to vote in the Georgia primaries? If so, who are you thinking about voting?

Definitely.  In past primaries I've usually requested an R ballot because it's the only way to have a meaningful effect on my local races (I live in Forsyth County), but I've recently sworn off voting for any Republicans, so this year I'll get a D ballot.  I'll probably vote Evans for governor; haven't really looked at the LG candidates yet.

Do you think Forsyth county is rapidly trending D?

I noticed it went from 80-17 Romney to 70-23 Trump. It also has a fairly big racial age gap that could change its politics as they get older.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

Are you going to vote in the Georgia primaries? If so, who are you thinking about voting?

Definitely.  In past primaries I've usually requested an R ballot because it's the only way to have a meaningful effect on my local races (I live in Forsyth County), but I've recently sworn off voting for any Republicans, so this year I'll get a D ballot.  I'll probably vote Evans for governor; haven't really looked at the LG candidates yet.

Do you think Forsyth county is rapidly trending D?

I noticed it went from 80-17 Romney to 70-23 Trump. It also has a fairly big racial age gap that could change its politics as they get older.

Forsyth is trending D, but one could argue that's the only direction it could trend.  Part of that is demographic change, as you suggest.  The county is still about 80% white, but that's a big decline in the past couple of decades; when I moved here, it was well over 90%.  This is compounded by the fact that Forsyth's population has grown explosively, so a larger percentage of the new population is nonwhite compared to the county as a whole.  

The other component is that much of the population influx is affluent and highly educated.  There's been a large overflow of technical and professional workers from the cities of North Fulton.  In addition, many of these people are newcomers from other parts of the country or other countries, which helps to further dilute the "old guard" of Forsyth (which is very VERY conservative).

The change has happened rather rapidly, but the county was so very conservative to start with that I don't see it becoming even potentially competitive within the next 10 years.  However, since the southern part of the county is the one that's changing fastest, that has implications for the GA-7 Congressional district, which it shares with Gwinnett County.  Some people here have suggested GA-7 may be prone to flip before GA-6, and I wouldn't argue against that.

Some numbers for Forsyth: in the 2000 Census, the total population was 98K, 95% white.  In 2010, the population jumped to 185K but the white percentage dropped to 85%.  In 2017, the estimated population was 227K, with the white percentage varying from 79% to 82%.  The percentage of adults with a bachelor's degree or higher is about 50%, and the median household income is something over $90K; both of these are among the highest (possibly the highest) in the state.

[Canis]

What chance do you guys give John Barrows run for Georgia Secretary of state? He's moderate and the reps had to redistrict him twice to take him down and his campaign seems to be going well here's an ad of his https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze4UwtQpDw0
also his list of endorsements is ridiculously long and impressive
http://barrowforgeorgia.com/content/endorsements
I'd say he has the best chance to be elected state wide of any of the georgia dems in the statewide races

[Adam Griffin]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

I'm amazed to see this ad. Evans' whole campaign has been focused on HOPE - and Abrams is nibbling at the hook. It implies movement - and the desire to cut it off at the pass. Why else bother responding?

[Adam Griffin]

What chance do you guys give John Barrows run for Georgia Secretary of state? He's moderate and the reps had to redistrict him twice to take him down and his campaign seems to be going well here's an ad of his https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze4UwtQpDw0
also his list of endorsements is ridiculously long and impressive
http://barrowforgeorgia.com/content/endorsements
I'd say he has the best chance to be elected state wide of any of the georgia dems in the statewide races

Barrow obviously has the most name recognition. His opponents are known quantities to varying degrees within state Democratic circles (even I personally know RJ, and Dee was a South Dekalb rep), but obviously not on the same level. Nevertheless, I think Barrow'll drive up margins enough throughout his old stomping grounds (which is a huge swath of the state if you count all of his old CDs) to prevail and may walk with it in a landslide. If Barrow has a race on his hands, it'll only be because he lacks name recognition in the metro - but I'm skeptical that'll make a difference. He also has top-ballot status, which should pad him a bit.

I imagine Dawkins-Haigler will run up some margins in South Dekalb, and RJ will probably do very well in Rockdale, but they're feeding off of the same broader geographic area.

[Gass3268]

What chance do you guys give John Barrows run for Georgia Secretary of state? He's moderate and the reps had to redistrict him twice to take him down and his campaign seems to be going well here's an ad of his https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze4UwtQpDw0
also his list of endorsements is ridiculously long and impressive
http://barrowforgeorgia.com/content/endorsements
I'd say he has the best chance to be elected state wide of any of the georgia dems in the statewide races

This is a good quote:

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[Adam Griffin]

AJC: In early Dem balloting, black voters up 38% over ‘14, white voters up 68%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is (relatively) bad news for Abrams, but we still have another 4-5 days of early voting to go. In the past (at least for GEs), I'm fairly certain there has been an uptick in Democratic ballots (which in GA, more often than not, is indicative of black voters) in the final days - so things may change - but I'd be surprised that if the 61% figure remains where it is or drops, that it'll rise once ED voting is counted.

Just as an example, the early voting in the 2014 GE looked really good at the end of the period, as something like 33-34% of voters were black. In the end, about half early voted and half voted on ED, and the total black share of the electorate was 29%. If the trend doesn't break substantially, we could be looking at a black electorate around 55% - which is lower than I expected even in a status quo primary and/or with that potential uptick in non-black voters I hypothesized.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Monday, 177,706 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Votes	%	Party
90230	50.77	Republican
82761	46.57	Democratic
4715	2.56	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 23.4%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 14.6%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

I'm amazed to see this ad. Evans' whole campaign has been focused on HOPE - and Abrams is nibbling at the hook. It implies movement - and the desire to cut it off at the pass. Why else bother responding?

This is (relatively) bad news for Abrams, but we still have another 4-5 days of early voting to go. In the past (at least for GEs), I'm fairly certain there has been an uptick in Democratic ballots (which in GA, more often than not, is indicative of black voters) in the final days - so things may change - but I'd be surprised that if the 61% figure remains where it is or drops, that it'll rise once ED voting is counted.

Just as an example, the early voting in the 2014 GE looked really good at the end of the period, as something like 33-34% of voters were black. In the end, about half early voted and half voted on ED, and the total black share of the electorate was 29%. If the trend doesn't break substantially, we could be looking at a black electorate around 55% - which is lower than I expected even in a status quo primary and/or with that potential uptick in non-black voters I hypothesized.

Abrams campaign is clearly shook by this uptick in white Dem ballot pulling in North Atlanta suburbs. I'm sure these GOP-crossovers are voting Evans and the hypothetical boon in African-American turnout Abrams has banked on is falling flat relative to the primary electorate as a whole. They were floating a number like 65% of the Democratic primary being black. I am eagerly awaiting the results out of Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee, and the like.

[Bidenworth2020]

oh this is bad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1cfjh6VfE

who is favored, evans or abrams

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Abrams will be fine. She's getting about as many white voters as Evans is getting black voters.

She wins 60-40


@PMASTA, The ad is stupid, but I think it will lead to a Kemp surge that prevents Cagle from getting 50% in the primary.

[Bidenworth2020]

Abrams will be fine. She's getting about as many white voters as Evans is getting black voters.

She wins 60-40


@PMASTA, The ad is stupid, but I think it will lead to a Kemp surge that prevents Cagle from getting 50% in the primary.

I mean, it is not like he is the only one who is doing these ads lol

[Adam Griffin]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

I'm amazed to see this ad. Evans' whole campaign has been focused on HOPE - and Abrams is nibbling at the hook. It implies movement - and the desire to cut it off at the pass. Why else bother responding?

This is (relatively) bad news for Abrams, but we still have another 4-5 days of early voting to go. In the past (at least for GEs), I'm fairly certain there has been an uptick in Democratic ballots (which in GA, more often than not, is indicative of black voters) in the final days - so things may change - but I'd be surprised that if the 61% figure remains where it is or drops, that it'll rise once ED voting is counted.

Just as an example, the early voting in the 2014 GE looked really good at the end of the period, as something like 33-34% of voters were black. In the end, about half early voted and half voted on ED, and the total black share of the electorate was 29%. If the trend doesn't break substantially, we could be looking at a black electorate around 55% - which is lower than I expected even in a status quo primary and/or with that potential uptick in non-black voters I hypothesized.

Abrams campaign is clearly shook by this uptick in white Dem ballot pulling in North Atlanta suburbs. I'm sure these GOP-crossovers are voting Evans and the hypothetical boon in African-American turnout Abrams has banked on is falling flat relative to the primary electorate as a whole. They were floating a number like 65% of the Democratic primary being black. I am eagerly awaiting the results out of Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee, and the like.

Well, as you mentioned before and I also referenced, the final week could tilt differently due to more metro area voting sites opening. However, even if it does, that might not necessarily be indicative of the final result: one thing I forgot to mention about '14 specifically was that black turnout was several points higher at the end of early voting compared to early vote in 2010 (I believe it was 30% of the early electorate in 2010 and 33-34% in 2014), but in the end, that surge during early voting was basically a cannibalization of prior ED black vote; the black share of the electorate did edge up to 29% compared to 28% in 2010, but that was only a marginal shift in the grand scheme of things.

Likewise, more black voters may be waiting until Election Day this cycle instead of voting early (it wouldn't be too crazy for this to be the case, seeing as how this primary is far more contested up and down the ballot). All we can really be sure of is that time will tell!

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP Georgia governor candidate bringing 'Deportation Bus Tour' to state's sanctuary cities

I'm embarrassed to admit that this guy is my current State Senator.

Jesus christ