Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC/WSB-TV poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary has:

Cagle 41
Kemp 10
Hill 9
Tippins 4
Williams 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've just seen one of the most cringeworthy political TV ads ever for Brian Kemp on Atlanta's channel 11.  Check it out at http://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgia-votes-2018-new-ad-shows-kemp-pointing-a-rifle-at-man-wanting-to-date-his-daughter/85-546716417.

[Yellowhammer]

Looks like Cagle has got the primary wrapped up at this point

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cagle is doing stronger than I expected. Kemp's numbers are kinda pitiful IMO.

Abrams has five Get Out the Early Vote rallies planned for Monday! This is the final stretch! She will have a few black female celebrities joining her on the stump in the strategic locations of Albany, Columbus, Fort Valley, Albany, and Atlanta especially the first four where the D electorate will be overwhelmingly black women.

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

We saw the path in 2016 - Clinton levels in the Suburbs, Obama levels with AA voters. I have thought for a while that choosing Abrams guarantees the latter but probably loses most hope of the former, unless the eventual R candidate implodes there. Evans leaves both groups open, but probably will fall a tiny bit short in both. A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation one could say.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

I was making the point that a painfully close Abrams loss will not prove that Evans or any other candidate considered "safer" would have won.

I believe there is a path for a D victory that include a myriad of factors going our way, hyper black turnout being one of them. Evans won't be the one to do it. Three weeks out from the vote she effectively has no statewide canvass apparatus while Abrams has one with other organizations strategically targeting specific groups in addition to hers. I've been canvassed and contacted multiple times by Abrams compared to 0 times from Evans. A white face and platitudes about hope and opportunity aren't going to move the needle either.

We saw the path in 2016 - Clinton levels in the Suburbs, Obama levels with AA voters. I have thought for a while that choosing Abrams guarantees the latter but probably loses most hope of the former, unless the eventual R candidate implodes there. Evans leaves both groups open, but probably will fall a tiny bit short in both. A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation one could say.

Why would Abrams not do well in the suburbs?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why would Abrams not do well in the suburbs?

Because, sadly, there are still many voters out here who may be open to voting for a white woman Democrat, but not a black woman Democrat.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

I know. I’ve decided to think that they will think she has no shot in hell so they stay home regardless. We’ll see soon enough.

[Oryxslayer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

Pretty much why I don't think Abrams can win -  she can't keep the educated whites in the North Suburbs that swung hard to Clinton. Abrams probably keeps the South/Inner suburban gains, since those are more driven off of minority voters. Evans probably comes close to Clinton in all regards, but doesn't match her.

As has been stated by others here, many times, Abrams's core message of her campaign is that she is a Black Women. Sure, she will win the primary fine, and sure she has adopted many Dem party planks. But her core theme isn't the right one for a electorate ~59% white and >30% AA.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

Pretty much why I don't think Abrams can win -  she can't keep the educated whites in the North Suburbs that swung hard to Clinton. Abrams probably keeps the South/Inner suburban gains, since those are more driven off of minority voters. Evans probably comes close to Clinton in all regards, but doesn't match her.

As has been stated by others here, many times, Abrams's core message of her campaign is that she is a Black Women. Sure, she will win the primary fine, and sure she has adopted many Dem party planks. But her core theme isn't the right one for a electorate ~59% white and >30% AA.

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've just seen one of the most cringeworthy political TV ads ever for Brian Kemp on Atlanta's channel 11.  Check it out at http://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/georgia-votes-2018-new-ad-shows-kemp-pointing-a-rifle-at-man-wanting-to-date-his-daughter/85-546716417.

This ad doesn't even make sense to me. I think he wrote a mad lib and made an ad out of it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

To be fair, I can understand how people come to the conclusion that Abrams is running an identity politics campaign based on how the horrible news media (besides myajc, which is excellent) covers the race. Every damn time I hear a national news outlet talk about this race it's about how Abrams is running as the first black woman and talking about some weird ass proxy race war between her and evans, when in reality, her message is so much more. The kind of sh** news coverage that just talks about Abrams's race is just a disservice to everyone. Also, unfortunately, some Abrams supporters do make the campaign about her race instead of her message. But Abrams herself has what I think is at least a fairly good message that talks about far more than "identity politics".

[Rookie Yinzer]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

To be fair, I can understand how people come to the conclusion that Abrams is running an identity politics campaign based on how the horrible news media (besides myajc, which is excellent) covers the race. Every damn time I hear a national news outlet talk about this race it's about how Abrams is running as the first black woman and talking about some weird ass proxy race war between her and evans, when in reality, her message is so much more. The kind of sh** news coverage that just talks about Abrams's race is just a disservice to everyone. Also, unfortunately, some Abrams supporters do make the campaign about her race instead of her message. But Abrams herself has what I think is at least a fairly good message that talks about far more than "identity politics".

Fair assessment. I’ve seen all of the above. I guess because I’m especially tuned into her campaign I don’t see what others may see.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.

Abrams campaign is not based around identity politics. I've seen her on the stump multiple times and she has never brought up her race or gender. Expanding medicaid, affordable college, quality public education, rural employment, infrastructure investment, and a fair economy are not identity politics. What speech or ad has consisted of "I'm a black woman, hear me roar"?

And where was the identity politics in this speech, where she had a room full of working class white men giving her a standing ovation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhCq8yCpjXw

And to the bolded: are you suggesting black voters will not vote because she's "sure to lose"? Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I've ever saw one.

I’m suggesting they won’t vote for her in the primary. If she wins the nod of course they’ll vote for her in the general

[henster]

Abrams probably killed any chance of breaking thru with whites when she proposed this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/ga-politician-stone-mountains-confederate-carvings-should-be-removed

Wanting to alter one of the most popular attraction in the state seems so stupid.

[GlobeSoc]

Abrams probably killed any chance of breaking thru with whites when she proposed this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/ga-politician-stone-mountains-confederate-carvings-should-be-removed

Wanting to alter one of the most popular attraction in the state seems so stupid.

Rule 7 of politics: soundbites/national news coverage or it didn't happen

[libertpaulian]

Abrams probably killed any chance of breaking thru with whites when she proposed this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/ga-politician-stone-mountains-confederate-carvings-should-be-removed

Wanting to alter one of the most popular attraction in the state seems so stupid.

Doug Jones got 30% of the white vote and won by 2%.  Georgia is much more minority-heavy than Alabama, so Abrams would probably need...23-25%?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Abrams probably killed any chance of breaking thru with whites when she proposed this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/ga-politician-stone-mountains-confederate-carvings-should-be-removed

Wanting to alter one of the most popular attraction in the state seems so stupid.

Doug Jones got 30% of the white vote and won by 2%.  Georgia is much more minority-heavy than Alabama, so Abrams would probably need...23-25%?

Abrams would need at least 25% to win. I don't expect her to do as well among black people + the turnout differential as Doug Jones, cuz Jones was facing a racist pedophile. She probably needs more like 27% to actually win.

[Adam Griffin]

27/91/70 is the most plausible formula for 50%+1 in 2018 (assuming an electorate that's 61% white, 30% black, 9% other). Remember that it's not enough to win with a plurality here, and it's highly implausible even during the best of times that Democrats could pull off a victory in a run-off. Just look at the swings in the special legislative elections in GA this past year for your proof.

The Democrat could also win with 25% of the white vote if the black vote is either at least 94% Democratic or 32% of the electorate, but no Democrat black or white has managed to score the former figure except President Obama (and none the latter - yet).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jason Carter got 89% of black women and 90% of black men. I can easily see Abrams clearing 95 percent with black women. Abrams could probably bump up that black men number one or two points by turning out low propensity D-leaning men voting specifically for her.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wouldn't the electorate be more like 32% black if Abrams is the nominee? It was 32% black in 2012, and I figure Abrams would do a decent job bringing up black turnout. Black people actually have pretty good midterm turnout in Georgia. I believe it was 30% black even in 2014.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cast my vote for Leader Abrams this morning.

For those tuned into the Republican side, who would you prefer to come out of these run-off matchups?

Cagle v. Kemp
Cagle v. Tippins
Cagle v. Hill

And which one do you think would be the most vulnerable against the Democratic nominee?