Fox: NV - Heck + 7 NC - Burr + 6 Portman + 14

[Heisenberg]

Certainly disagrees with the consensus on NC. Interesting.

I agree that the NC numbers seem off, but when comparing the margins it still agrees with the consensus. McCrory underperformed Trump by 2, while Burr overperforms Trump by 1. I think that is about right, but I think McCrory is down by 3, Trump tied and Burr +1 is more like it.

[Heisenberg]

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.

Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous

Plus it's not like Democrats had many better options

Ross Miller and Dina Titus were really the only two other heavy hitters they had

Cortez Masto also, while AG, was under fire for indicting then-LG Brian Krolicki, then dropping the indictment (which was purely partisan motivated) since he had done no wrongdoing. Ross lost the AG race in 2014, though the wave really hurt him. Titus also lost to Heck in 2010, and would not have been that much better. The Democratic bench in Nevada is pretty weak, for now.