UK local by-elections, 2024

[JimJamUK]

I still find it a little surprising how little the Tories have suffered at local level in Northants (especially North Northants) for what happened to the county council.
[/quote]
To some extent it was already baked into the results in 2021. The Tory vote fell about 10% from 2017 so they did suffer, it’s just that a Tory leaning council is a very Tory year can still give the Tories the lions share of seats.

[YL]

Just two this week, but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

Thursday 11 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Highland; Inverness South

First preferences
Ind McDonald 730 (22.1%, new)
Lib Dem 652 (19.7%, +11.1)
SNP 641 (19.4%, -15.8)
Con 533 (16.1%, -0.8)
Lab 364 (11.0%, +3.8)
Green 237 (7.2%, +1.8)
Alba 107 (3.2%, +1.4)
Sovereignty 41 (1.2%, new)

Stage 7: Ind McDonald 1247, Lib Dem 1235

Ind McDonald gain from Lib Dem (but morally from SNP)

North Yorkshire; Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone

Lib Dem 1094 (43.8%, -7.8)
Con 768 (30.8%, -4.0)
Green 376 (15.1%, new)
Reform UK 141 (5.7%, new)
Lab 116 (4.6%, -2.6)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

That'll be a no then.

[Torrain]

Again, unionist disclaimer.

But it’s an interesting set of results. For the SNP (who reputable ScotPol watchers like Alan Faulds assumed where favoured here) to do *this* poorly is a bit of a warning shot.

Despite their tilt towards Edinburgh and Glasgow voters, the highlands and rural areas have been the SNP’s best area in polling over the past year. Suggests an Independent, in the mold of say, perhaps a Fergus Ewing, might be able to do some damage here - and that the Lib Dem’s might finally be able to feel a little calmer about Jamie Stone’s chances in Caithness.

If we have another year of coverage on hot-button issues for highlanders, like the wood-burning stove ban, A96 duelling, etc etc, there could be a vulnerability here.

[CumbrianLefty]

but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

That'll be a no then.

And quite strikingly so!

[EastAnglianLefty]

The SNP were very close to making it into the final two, but in practice if either the independent or the LD had been eliminated instead of them, then the remaining candidate would have beaten the SNP candidate by a much wider margin than the independent beat the LD by.

[YL]

The SNP were very close to making it into the final two, but in practice if either the independent or the LD had been eliminated instead of them, then the remaining candidate would have beaten the SNP candidate by a much wider margin than the independent beat the LD by.

They weren't actually close to the final two. Here's BallotBoxScotland's plot of the transfers:


For the first few counts, there wasn't that much in it between the top three candidates, with the SNP overtaking the Lib Dems and getting quite close to McDonald with transfers from Alba and the Greens. But that left those three candidates close together on count 5 with the Tory vote just about to be transferred. Unsurprisingly that Tory vote produced hardly anything for the SNP and substantial amounts for the Lib Dems and McDonald, so the SNP were clearly eliminated on count 6.

In fact the Lib Dems were 15 votes ahead of McDonald on count 6, but the SNP elimination favoured McDonald, hence his eventual win by 12 votes on count 7.

[YL]

And here's BallotBoxScotland's plot of the most popular second preferences by first preference vote:



The patterns are not very surprising for the most part, but note that Ind > SNP and SNP > Ind are both quite low, suggesting that McDonald isn't very SNP adjacent, which would make this result even worse for them.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The SNP were very close to making it into the final two, but in practice if either the independent or the LD had been eliminated instead of them, then the remaining candidate would have beaten the SNP candidate by a much wider margin than the independent beat the LD by.

They weren't actually close to the final two. Here's BallotBoxScotland's plot of the transfers:


For the first few counts, there wasn't that much in it between the top three candidates, with the SNP overtaking the Lib Dems and getting quite close to McDonald with transfers from Alba and the Greens. But that left those three candidates close together on count 5 with the Tory vote just about to be transferred. Unsurprisingly that Tory vote produced hardly anything for the SNP and substantial amounts for the Lib Dems and McDonald, so the SNP were clearly eliminated on count 6.

In fact the Lib Dems were 15 votes ahead of McDonald on count 6, but the SNP elimination favoured McDonald, hence his eventual win by 12 votes on count 7.

Apologies, you're correct. I misremembered which elimination it was that separated out the candidates.

[MacShimidh]

As an Inverness native (though not of this ward), I'm not hugely surprised by the SNP's collapse in Inverness South. The incumbent SNP councillor is something of a maverick, at times threatening to leave the party (and on at least one occasion actually did for a while). Whilst personal votes aren't what they once were in the Highlands (especially in Inverness), he's been very well-known and popular in the area for ages, and I very much suspect his popularity has been inflating the SNP figure for years now.

Anyway, happy enough the Independent won a seat at his third attempt. Seems likes a decent bloke, though I've got no love whatsoever for the SNP-IND coalition that run this place.

[YL]

Tuesday 16 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Pembrokeshire; St Ishmael's

Con 297 (43.4%, +18.9 on the same candidate as an Independent)
Ind Jenkins 242 (35.3%, new)
Ind Harwood 69 (10.1%, -2.4 on the same candidate as a Green)
Ind Simister 52 (7.6%, new)
Ind Worsley 25 (3.6%, new)
(changes from 2022, when the only party candidate was Harwood as a Green)

Con gain from Ind

[Conservatopia]

0 votes for Labour? What a shambles for Keith Starmer. Proof the polls are off.

[CumbrianLefty]

You do know that certain Twitter accounts with Corbynist avatars will be saying that totally seriously?

(one of the most hilarious, which I only stumbled upon recently, is predicting "up to 200 independent left MPs" after the next GE with not just a totally straight face but approaching religious fervour)

[Tintrlvr]

You do know that certain Twitter accounts with Corbynist avatars will be saying that totally seriously?

(one of the most hilarious, which I only stumbled upon recently, is predicting "up to 200 independent left MPs" after the next GE with not just a totally straight face but approaching religious fervour)

"If the swing in Rochdale is repeated across the country..."

[Duke of York]

Tuesday 16 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Pembrokeshire; St Ishmael's

Con 297 (43.4%, +18.9 on the same candidate as an Independent)
Ind Jenkins 242 (35.3%, new)
Ind Harwood 69 (10.1%, -2.4 on the same candidate as a Green)
Ind Simister 52 (7.6%, new)
Ind Worsley 25 (3.6%, new)
(changes from 2022, when the only party candidate was Harwood as a Green)

Con gain from Ind

interesting the Conservatives the one party that decided to contest the seat gained it.

[YL]

Thursday 18 April

Andrew Teale's preview

East Cambridgeshire; Ely West

Lib Dem 1125 (47.9%, +10.6)
Con 760 (32.3%, +10.2)
Lab 466 (19.8%, -2.7)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Waverley; Farnham Castle

Farnham Residents 307 (32.5%, -17.7)
Lib Dem 279 (29.6%, new)
Lab 217 (23.0%, -11.7)
Con 141 (14.9%, -0.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Farnham Residents hold

[YL]

And another chance for the SNP to break their run.

Thursday 25 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Angus; Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim

First preferences
Con 1682 (41.9%, +10.6)
SNP 1175 (29.3%, -6.9)
Lab 644 (16.1%, +9.6)
Lib Dem 333 (8.3%, +3.9)
Green 176 (4.4%, +1.1)

Con gain from Ind (morally Con gain from SNP); transfer details to follow

Cardiff; Grangetown

Lab 1470 (47.5%, -5.6)
Plaid/Green 573 (18.5%, -9.3)
Con 387 (12.5%, +3.5)
Propel 292 (9.4%, +6.2)
Ind Abdi Samater 266 (4.9%, new)
Lib Dem 175 (3.2%, -1.7)
Ind Horvord 44 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

[Torrain]

Conservative victory in Arbroath is another warning shot to the SNP. This was an SNP ward in 2022, and the Tories pulled a 13% lead over them here. If places like Angus are amenable to the Tories, the North East might end up looking more like 2017 than ‘15 or even ‘19.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think recent Scottish local byelections have pretty accurately shown the SNP's decline from previous electoral domination, but I do still suspect they show the Tories doing a bit better than they are likely to in a Westminster election - where Sunak's mob are currently no better regarded than in England.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those who like a really deep cut, Until the 1980s Grangetown tended to vote Labour in General Elections but was a marginal ward that often narrowly returned Conservatives in local elections, the latter being a legacy of the machine politics and, ultimately, political issues (temperance!) of another age. At least one of the Conservative candidates in the ward back then always had an Irish surname, as a rule.

[CumbrianLefty]

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

Plaid Cymru/Green alliances and electoral deals go back to the early 1990s, with mixed results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

Plaid Cymru/Green alliances and electoral deals go back to the early 1990s, with mixed results.

It has fairly clearly retarded the potential progress of the latter, but it's their life and their funeral, I suppose.

[YL]

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

Plaid Cymru/Green alliances and electoral deals go back to the early 1990s, with mixed results.

Several constituencies had joint Plaid/Green candidates in the 1992 General Election. According to some sources (including his Wikipedia article) one of them was Cynog Dafis, who won Ceredigion & Pembroke North. So there was, sort of, a Green MP 18 years before Caroline Lucas, but I'm not sure how official the endorsement was or what appeared on the ballot paper.

[YL]

For those who like a really deep cut, Until the 1980s Grangetown tended to vote Labour in General Elections but was a marginal ward that often narrowly returned Conservatives in local elections, the latter being a legacy of the machine politics and, ultimately, political issues (temperance!) of another age. At least one of the Conservative candidates in the ward back then always had an Irish surname, as a rule.

Was there anywhere else like that?

[Tintrlvr]

Does nearly 10% for Propel in Cardiff surprise anyone else?