Scottish National Party leadership election, 2024

[afleitch]

Ipsos did do polling of the public and SNP 2019 voters.

There's very little difference in terms of public support (they both out poll Anas Sarwar by comparison)

Swinney's net favourables across age groups is broadly the same. Forbes' favourables are worse amongst those under the age of 55 (and negative with younger voters) but three times higher than Swinney with over 55's.

There's also very little difference with SNP 2019 voters, the only key difference is Forbes with significantly higher disapprovals than any other SNP name mentioned.

So she suffers as she did before from poor approvals from SNP voters or voter pool and high approvals from demographics less likely to vote SNP.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1786014604197310920

[afleitch]

Lovely.

She'll be back no doubt, but not quite yet.

[Torrain]

With the likely Swinney coronation, a perculiar pattern holds. For the past 34 years, every leader of the SNP has either been:

• Alex Salmond
• Alex Salmond's deputy
• Alex Salmond's assistant

Incredible how long a shadow he casts.

[afleitch]

A few points worth noting about the man. Under Swinney's first leadership, the SNP was perceived as insufficiently left wing (Alex Neil, then being on the 'left' of the party was his challenger in 2000 and Bill Wilson who challenged him in 2003 is now in the Greens)

He was also a 'gradualist'; at that time advocating independence only by referendum (rather than self declaration) which ultimately prevailed as the structure in which to advocate for independence. Regardless of frustration post 2014 it remains the only formal, internationally recognisable way it can be done as long as the British state continues to function.

Swinney's tenure saw a complete overhaul of the party structure and voting system (one member one vote rather than delegate voting) and moving away from effectively autonomous constituency based operations, which in many ways contributed to later organisational and electorate success, but also some consternation with the awkward squad.

While he has the same present backers as Humza and the same opponents as he personally did 20 years ago, many of whom are currently out of influence, he is not 'continuity' Salmond-Sturgeon-Yousaf.

He is 100% a 'party man'. That he was able to embed in the administrations after his own loss of the leadership is testament to that.

Whether that cuts through with the public is another matter.

[Chickpeas]

So what role can Kate Forbes look forward to in John Swinney's cabinet? Presumably her old position as Cabinet Secretary for Finance along with the enhanced prestige of being Deputy First Minister too?   

[Joe Republic]

Did Forbes announce Swinney as being "the man for the moment"?


(IYKYK)

[Torrain]

So what role can Kate Forbes look forward to in John Swinney's cabinet? Presumably her old position as Cabinet Secretary for Finance along with the enhanced prestige of being Deputy First Minister too?    

Feels like it, given the other options:

• Health is a poisoned chalice.
• Rural Affairs is a demotion she’s already declined.
• Education and Justice are big portfolios, but putting Forbes there would trigger kickback from the Greens and the SNP-left.
• Energy/Net Zero is a possibility, given she’d be able to recast herself as a champion of green energy as a vehicle for economic growth. But this is McAllan’s role, and they’re not going to fire/demote her, given she’ll be the party’s challenger against Forbes next time.
• Social Justice (housing, local government) is possible, but not prestigious. It’s also got responsibility for the Equalities minister, which again would inflame certain people.
• Transport would let her do the Highland infrastructures stuff she and her allies want, but would be hamstrung by the parliamentary arithmetic. The SNP right and the Tories want the A96 dualled, the Greens have ruled out voting for it. And no competent politician would want to take ownership of the ferry fiasco.
• Constitution, Culture and External Affairs is just an excuse to go abroad and have fancy dinners with businessmen and politicians - and still seems to be Angus Robertson’s retirement plan.

Getting Finance and Deputy FM means she’d get back to the heart of government, and have the chance to stand in for FMQs and the like.

[CumbrianLefty]

So, yet another coronation it seems.

Parties do seem awfully fond of them, even though their actual record can be described as "mixed".

(and then some)