2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

兵庫(Hyōgo) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 3- member district.   A 2- member district usually is 1 seat for LDP and 1 for the main Center-Left party.  In a 3- member district it is 2 LDP or 1 LDP 1 KP followed by 1 for the main Center-Left party.  But in 兵庫(Hyōgo) JRP is strong and took the seat of the main Center-Left party since 2013.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.78% elected  (incumbent)
JRP            26.05% elected   
DPJ            14.95% (incumbent)
JCP              9.60%
YP               7.58%
GP               2.53%
HRP             1.52%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.49%
Center-Left  16.22% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    27.33% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               9.59%
HRP              0.37%

There seems to be significant tactical voting by LDP-KP PR voters for JRP to defeat DPJ. 

In 2016 兵庫(Hyōgo)  turned into a 3- member seats which had KP running a candidate
LDP           26.33% elected  (incumbent)
KP             22.24% elected 
ORA           21.79% elected   
DP             17.23%  (incumbent)
JCP             9.39%
HRP            2.05%
PJK             0.98%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.09%
Center-Left  19.62%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    21.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             10.30%
NPB             0.72%
HRP             0.91%

KP was at risk of losing the 3rd seat to DP and made a massive push on the ground and got tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for KP to push KP into second place and DP into 4th place with ORA winning the 3rd and last seat.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.74%
Center-Left 32.00% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   13.65% (JRP)
JCP              8.14%
HRP             0.47%

For 2019 it seems JRP level of support has fallen to the point that they are unlikely to win the 3rd and last seat again a concentration of the Center-Left PR vote around a common candidate, most likely CDP.  If DPP were to run it would be more competitive but in the end unless there will be LDP-KP PR tactically vote for JRP, CDP should win the 3rd and last seat.

[jaichind]

愛媛(Ehime) is a 1- member district deep inside the LDP Southern Japan bastion.  In 2016 it surprising became competitive so it might make sense to call it out as a possible battleground even though it seems LDP should be destined to win.

In 2013 the Center-Left failed to nominate a candidate and it was
LDP            66.60% elected
YP              18.37%
JCP            10.96%
HRP             2.53%
Minor           1.54%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        59.39%
Center-Left  14.10% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.87% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.11%
HRP              0.53%

In 2013 this district was so noncompetitive that DPJ failed to nominate or back a candidate.  The Center-Left PR vote split their vote between the LDP and JCP candidate.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed an ex-DPJ MP candidate running as a DP backed independent
LDP             49.58% elected  (incumbent)
Ind(DP)       48.30% (ex-MP)
HRP              2.12%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       58.39%
Center-Left  23.71%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.05%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              6.97%
NPB             1.15%
HRP             0.73%

The ex-MP opposition common candidate was fairly popular locally plus the anti-TPP wave pulled in a large number of LDP-KP PR votes to get the race to neck-to-neck and then a narrow loss to a LDP incumbent.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.78%
Center-Left 36.07% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     6.02% (JRP)
JCP              5.57%
HRP             0.55%

LDP-KP support in 2017 has dropped from 2016 so if the Center-Left-JCP can back the same popular ex-MP as its candidate in 2019 they might have a chance to pull off an upset like the the 2016 near upset.  But without the 2016 anti-TPP wave this seems unlikely although it could be close again like 2016.

[jaichind]

大分(Ōita) is a 1- member district which always had an opposition lean (SDP is fairly strong here) and as a result will be a battleground.

In 2013 it was
LDP            49.98% elected
Ind(SDP)    27.30%
JCP            11.01%
YP               8.87%
HRP             2.84%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        54.28%
Center-Left  24.06% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    14.26% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               6.86%
HRP              0.55%

The Ind(SDP) candidate given the local SDP strength and network was able to pull in a bunch LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes but due to local Center-Left rivalries between SDP and other Center-Left parties some of the Center-Left PR vote went to JCP.  In the end it did not matter as in this very LDP year the LDP incumbent easily won.   

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP incumbent
DP              48.13% elected (incumbent)
LDP             47.94% 
HRP              3.92%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       52.70%
Center-Left  33.22%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.68%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              6.85%
NPB             0.67%
HRP             0.88%

The DP incumbent advantage was on clear display as the LDP lost LDP-KP PR votes to DP which pulled out a close victory.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.28%
Center-Left 45.08% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     2.71% (JRP)
JCP              5.13%
HRP             0.80%

In theory in 2019 if the Center-Left-JCP can get around a common candidate they should be in a good position to win.  I still have this race as lean LDP because of the LDP incumbency advantage plus since there is no Center-Left incumbent the SDP would most likely insist on running its candidate as the common Center-Left-JCP United Front candidate which would face resistance from other Center-Left forces. Even if SDP pull that off the local intra-Center-Left rivalries would mean that their bases could not fuse and most likely will lose to the LDP even if in theory the votes are there to defeat the LDP incumbent.   

[jaichind]

The last battleground is 1- member district 沖縄(Okinawa) which has always leans opposition especially with the advent of the US base issue but one can never count the LDP out in a 1- member district.

In 2013 it was
OSMP         51.13% elected  (incumbent)
LDP            45.40%
Minor           1.82%
HRP             1.64%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.29%
Center-Left  30.28% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    17.40% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               9.39%
HRP              0.64%

Here JCP backed a common opposition candidate in the form of a Left wing local OMSP incumbant which defeated the LDP candidate with the Third Pole PR vote split between the LDP and OMSP candidate.

In 2016 the same Center-Left-JCP grand alliance took place in backing a common independent opposition candidate
Ind(OPPN)   57.86% elected
LDP             40.52% (incumbent) (backed by ORA)
HRP              1.61%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       42.91%
Center-Left  29.29%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.75%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            15.64%
NPB             1.20%
HRP             1.21%

Despite ORA's support the LDP incumbent did not seem to have gained much Third Pole PR vote and in fact lost some LDP-KP PR vote and lost by a mile.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       39.70%
Center-Left 39.79% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     7.29% (JRP)
JCP            12.07%
HRP             1.16%

Clearly if the Center-Left forces run a common candidate with JCP support it should win.  Most likely that will be the OMSP incumbent.   But if JCP fail to back the OMSP candidate and run its own candidate then the LDP will have a chance to win.

[jaichind]

LDP Prez election is slated to 9/20

Abe has not announced his re-election bid but is expected to do so shortly.  LDP changed its rules over a year ago to allow Abe to run for an unprecedented 3rd term 3 year term.  Until 2015 this race will be competitive with Abe's 2012 rival Shigeru Ishiba running.   Seiko Noda will also run like in 2015 but like 2015 might struggle to get the 20 MP support to be put on the ballot.  Abe has the support of 5 out of the 7 LDP factions. 

There will be 810 votes (405 LDP MPs get a vote each, and 405 net votes from LDP local chapter vote.)  If no one gets a majority on the first round the 405 MPs votes again in a second round to determine the winner.   Abe won in 2012 over Ishiba by winning the second round amoung LDP MPs after Ishiba crushed Abe in the LDP rank and file vote but failed to capture a majority.

Ishiba's cannot hope to win but could force a second round by winning a landslide in the LDP rank and file vote and hope that Noda wins enough LDP MPs to deny Abe a first round victory.  Of course with ABe's overwhelming advantage among LDP MPs there is no way to stop him from winning on a second round.

I am hoping that Foreign Minister Tarō Kōno resigns and runs just like he did in 2009.  Tarō Kōno was and still is my favorite Japanese politician.     Most likely he will stay out and bide his time until a post-Abe era.

[jaichind]

DPP leadership race is slated for Sept 4th. 

It will be 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) vs 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke).  Both have DPJ backgrounds and are MPs from Southern Japan (香川(Kagawa) for 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō)  and 岡山(Okayama) for 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke))

玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō)  is for a Grand coalition with all non-JCP opposition parties to take on LDP-KP while 津村 啓介(Tsumura Keisuke) does not rule out JCP being part of that coalition.  I think in the end if DCP-SDP-LP forms an opposition alliance with JCP DPP might have no choice but to join or become marginalized.

[jaichind]

Abe officially enters the race for LDP Prez for an unprecedented third term.  The Abe cabinet approval rating curve turns positive as several polls show that Abe now slightly polling ahead of  Ishiba whereas before Abe officially entered the race Abe was clearly behind.

[jaichind]

The Okinawa gubernatorial election will be 9/30

In addition to the pro-LDP independent the anti-base opposition unity candidate would be LP MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) who is the first Amerasian MP ever.  While this makes sense as the anti-base governor 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) who just passed away had anointed 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) as his successor having him resign has MP seat to run does bring LP down to only 5 MPs which is the minimum it needs to continue to get government funding.  So in the 2019 Upper House elections LP has to retain the 1 MP it has or it risk losing official party status.

As for the Okinawa gubernatorial election itself I think that  玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) should have the upper hand given his name recognition and that the anti-base bloc does seem to have a majority support in the prefecture.

[jaichind]

Latest rounds of polling shows Abe cabinet approval rating holding on to a slightly net positive position


Party support has LDP surging to a six month high


While CDP support is falling as the 2017 novelty factor wears off as DPP rises a bit (at still abysmal levels)


To stop LDP landslides in the future CDP DPP and JCP will have to find ways to cooperate at the tactical level.

[jaichind]

The Okinawa gubernatorial election on 9/30 will see LDP backed 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) who is currently the pro-LDP mayor of 宜野湾市(Ginowan) vs the anti-base opposition LP MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī).

It will be an election of head vs heart.  Voting for the anti-base anti-LDP candidate would mean continuation of stalemate over the base relocation plan which is in line with the anti-base majority opinion.  Voting for the pro-LDP candidate means relenting on the base relocation and, given how critical the Japanese government views this issue, large amount of subsidies and other goodies for the prefecture in return.  What the Okinawa majority really want is for the US base to go away but given the current USA-PRC strategic stalemate in the Pacific there is no way that can take place.   I think the logical thing for the voting population to do is to vote for the pro-LDP candidate and get some good bribes and goodies to giving up their ideals.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll of LDP rank-and-file on LDP leader has it at Abe 55.5 Ishiba 34.9

48.2 percent supported Abe's intention to submit to the next Diet session his party's proposal for a constitutional revision, while 37.5 percent were opposed.

[jaichind]

Some of the local Okinawa polls seems to show that the anti-base united opposition candidate 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) has a slight lead over pro-LDP candidate 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu).

[jaichind]

UBS came out with a report that the number of votes Ishiba  gets in the LDP Prez election tomorrow will be a proxy for his influence in the LDP.  This is important because Ishiba  has economic orthodox views whereas Abe has hetrodox views.  The market prefer the era of full-throttle stimulus policies under Abe would be fearful of any growth in  Ishiba's support as a proxy for the likely policy model in a post Abe world after 2021.

UBS's model is
         
Market          Abe vote      Ishiba vote     Chance
Impact            610+            200-             15%
Neutral         540-610       200-270           50%
Negative          540-            270+             30%
Negative          405-            406+               5%  (Ishiba victory)

They’ll be competing for 810 votes, 405 from the party’s MPs and the same number apportioned to its rank-and-file members by local chapter.

[jaichind]

LDP Prez election.  Abe wins with around 68.5% of the electoral vote.  It was

               LDP MPs      LDP local chapter         Total
Abe            329                     224                  553
Ishiba          73                     181                  254

3 MP abstained.  Abe over-performed a bit on the LDP MP vote and under-performed a bit in the LDP rank-and-file vote.  

Ishiba-Abe margin is with Blue is where Abe is ahead and Red is where Ishiba is ahead


Abe vote share is


Ishiba vote share is



Abe does very well in 山口県(Yamaguchi) which is his home prefecture so it is not a surprise.  Not clear why Abe also does very well in 和歌山(Wakayama)

Ishiba does very well in 島根(Shimane) and 鳥取(Tottori) which is his home prefecture and the one next door so it is not a surprise.  He also does very well in 高知(Kōchi) which is not clear why.

In the large population centers around Greater Tokyo it seems to be neck-to-neck with a slight Abe edge but Tokyo itself is more decisively pro-Abe.

Overall in Northern and Central Japan where local LDP clientelist power barons have  less power the vote seem to more break down to LDP voter view toward Abe so the results tends to not be in favor one candidate or another.  In the South where both candidates are from regional factor of the two candidates plus the greater power of the LDP clientelist machines means a more extreme result by prefecture depending on how each local LDP machine wants to go.

[jaichind]

Kyodo came out with a fairly negative analysis of Abe's less than expected scale of victory which has the headline

FOCUS: Abe may hit rocky road after not decisively winning party race

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[jaichind]

Ok, but it's still a good outcome for Abe to get a third term as leader, which wasn't necessarily expected 6 months ago.

Well, after Abe survived the 2015 security bill crisis and the 2017 various crony crisis I always figured he will survive 2018 and the 2018 LDP Prez race.  Of course Abe does well when he is viewed as focusing on the economy vs other national security issues.

Latest Kyodo poll taken after Abe won re-election highlights this, summery of the poll are:

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 47.4(+3.2)/40.0(-2.4)
Support/opposition to Abe's plans for Constitutional reform 35.7/51.0
Positive/negative on Abe being in control of the political agenda 33.6/57.4
Support/Neutral/Oppose Abe being re-elected LDP Prez 29.7/44.7/24.9
What should Abe Cabinet focus on: Pensions (41.1), medical and nursing(39.9), constitutional revision(7.2)

And understand that Abe is really pushing for Constitutional Reform light which leaves  the Pacifist Clause 9 intact expect to add a phrase that says the Japan Self-Defense force is legal.  The traditional LDP position has been to remove the entire Clause.  Abe watered it down to be able to pass a referendum.  But it seems Abe's lower personal popularity is dragging down this project in the public opinion sphere.

[jaichind]

Magazine 週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) came out with their first projections of the 2019 Upper House elections.  Usually media projections this early are always too negative on the LDP so we should see their projection as a floor for the LDP.



Which is

            District    PR      Total
LDP          34        18       52
CDP          13        13      26
KP             6          7       13
JCP            3          4        7
DPP          12         4       16
JRP            2         3         5
HP             1         1         2
LP              1         0         1
SDP           0          0         0
OPPN         2                     2
-----------------------------------
              74        50       124

The projection seems to indicate that the Center-Left parties (CDP, DPP, LP, SDP) will form an alliance with JCP in the 1- member districts and sweep the 1- member districts in the 東北(Tōhoku or Northeast) and 九州(Kyushu) to the benefit of DPP.  The implied PR vote seems to imply something like

            Vote share     Seats
LDP       34.0%            18
CDP       25.0%            13
KP         13.5%              7
JCP         7.5%              4
JRP         6.0%              3
DPP        7.5%              4
HP          2.0%              1
SDP        1.5%             0
LP           1.5%             0

My current projection is

            District    PR      Total
LDP          39        18       57
CDP          12        13      25
KP             7          7       14
JCP            2          4        6
DPP           7          3       10
JRP            1          2        3
HP             1          1        2
LP              2         1        3
SDP           1         1         2
OPPN         2                    2
-----------------------------------
              74        50       124


Where my PR projection is something like

            Vote share     Seats
LDP          33.5%         18
CDP          24.5%        13
KP            13.5%          7
JCP            9.0%          4
DPP            6.5%         3
JRP            5.0%          2
SDP           2.5%          1
LP              2.0%          1
HP              2.0%         1
NPB            0.5%
HRP            0.5%
PJK             0.5%

[jaichind]

Okinawa governor election tomorrow.  There is a surge in early voting which is partly because there is a incoming hurricane which could make it hard to vote election day.   Joint opposition candidate, half-American and a MP 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) still seems to be slightly ahead of pro-LDP candidate 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu).

[jaichind]

And HP up there is the new Kibou party.

Yes, in Okinawa JRP and HP are pro-LDP and will back LDP mostly because the anti-base bloc clearly leans left with heavy JCP influences.   Both are sort of ambiguous on the USA base issue most because they both know that the anti-base position is the majority Okinawa position.  Of course there is still an issue of head vs heart.  The pro-LDP candidate is offering all sort of goodies and subsidies in return for looking the other way on the USA base.  In 2014 PROR (which is local proto-JRP) also ran and split the anti- anti-based bloc but it did not make a difference as the anti-base united opposition won an absolute majority. 

[jaichind]

Yes, not the best day to have an election in Okinawa.

What Okinawa looks like day before the election.


Poseidon seems to be on the side of Abe.  In 2017 Lower house general elections a huge storm lowered turnout and most likely added to the LDP-KP victory.  Now a storm hits Okinawa which could help lower turnout and throw the election to the pro-LDP candidate. 

[jaichind]

One of Okinawa's 2 main newspapers says that it is neck-to-neck with anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) slightly ahead.



In Okinawan almost all mainstream media are anti-base so the impact of the media is mostly to work against the pro-LDP candidate.   

[jaichind]

The Okinawa base stalemate reminds me a lot of the HK Chief Execute Election stalemate. 

Current the HK Chief Executive is elected by an electoral college whose selection is by the PRC government.  The Democratic and Localist blocs demand the selection of the HK  Chief Execute is based on direct election by the HK population.  PRC says "Yes we can agree to that  but we get to vet the candidates ahead of time."  The Democratic and Localist blocs reject this proposal even as a interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.     

The USA Futenma base in Okinawa is in Naha and right in the middle of a heavily populated area which is the cause of many problems and incidents. 


The anti-base activist bloc wants the USA completely out of Okinawa.  The government of Japan and USA are offering to move the base to a remote location with no inhabitants.  The anti-base bloc reject this proposal even as an interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.   

[jaichind]

In 2014 Okinawa elections around 700K voters voted, around 200K voted early.  This time 400K voted early.  No idea how many will vote on election day but most likely total turnout will still fall.

[jaichind]

2014 Okinawa turnout was 64.13%.  The way in day voting is going turnout will most likely be around 61%-62%.

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  Various media outlets using exit polls calls the race for anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) right away.  I guess the gap is not close.