'08 House rematch predictions as of June '07

[Conan]

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.

Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

[Conan]

I like your OH-15 prediction.  Since leaving her leadership post in the GOP Rep. Pryce has returned to her more moderate views and is now better aligned with her district.  I voted for Kilroy in 2006 to wake up Rep. Pryce and now that she has her eyes open I'll be voting to keep her in office come 2008.

That makes a lot of sense.

[Conan]

You should have posted this in my CQ Politics thread but nevertheless interesting predictions.

I enjoyed your thread, but I wanted to create a new post to gauge fellow Atlasians views on the '08 rematches.

Do you think I'm too pessimistic on the chances of the repeat challengers? I'd say that for every Paul Hodes and Jerry McNerney, there are many more Lois Murphys and Diane Farrells.

Yes. For example, out of what you listed, I would say the following challengers would also win:

Stender
Kissel
Kilroy
Maybe Seals.

But if there wasnt a rechallenger then I'd say Musgrave goes down too.

I'd be stunned if Stender could win NJ-07 in a Presidential year, because I'd be stunned if the Hunterdon County results for 2008 proved to be as ugly for Ferguson as they were in 2006.  Republicans just aren't going to stay home next year.

It's also worth noting that in this latest session, Mike Ferguson has proved to be more moderate than he's ever been.

In a presidential year, I would think she'd do a lot better. I think this will be a dem pres district. It doesn't really matter how moderate Ferguson is. It definitely didn't work for Kean.