The Rural Northeast/New England will be the next region of the country to undergo Trumpinization, so I'd expect a pretty consistent GOP trend.
I used to believe strongly in this, however I am less confident now that abortion appears to be taking center stage again. Generally more optimistic for R's in the Southwest and more optimistic for D's in the Northeast than I was pre-COVID.
The GOP is being taking over by Southern Evangelicals with the abortion issue raging. Trump was secular by Republican standards, so he did much better in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Going back to their angry anti abortion roots is going to hurt in the region.
A working class voter in Upstate New York or Michigan is different, from one in Alabama on social issues.
If true, there's 2 sides to this coin. Dems may hold on in the NE and Upper Midwest longer than expected, but do GA and NC go right back to R+5 and Texas back to R+10? Is VA too close to call again?
It probably wouldn't do that much in Virginia, Nevada, Arizona, or Florida but maybe it would put North Carolina and Georgia out of reach. It would probably make Pennsylvania and Michigan lean D. Not sure if it will change anything in Iowa, Ohio or Wisconsin, though. Maybe Wisconsin. This analysis probably only works if the abortion issue moves beyond simply where the local state only wants to close their abortion clinics but then tries to long arm as many people as they can.
If abortion stays a local thing, I can see trends continuing. Maybe Republicans "make peace" with abortion in New Hampshire and New York and eventually win most of the state-level races. Same with Democrats in Missouri, Arkansas, or Georgia.