Polls Show Democratic Gain in House

[Galactic Overlord]

We're in April 2007, the election is in November 2008... Things change.

Very true.

I don't blame the Dems for being optimistic, though. But generally, big swings like we had in 2006 cool off somewhat in the next cycle. Of course, the Democrats actually added one seat in 1976 on top of their monstrous gains in 1974, so who knows.

[Galactic Overlord]

Didn't they lose a lot in 1978 though?  That year is known as the "Minnesota Massacre" because Democrats lost almost every statewide election.

I forget how many, but they did lose seats in 1978 and in 1980, by then I think their Watergate margin was erased.

[Galactic Overlord]

We're in April 2007, the election is in November 2008... Things change.

Very true.

I don't blame the Dems for being optimistic, though. But generally, big swings like we had in 2006 cool off somewhat in the next cycle. Of course, the Democrats actually added one seat in 1976 on top of their monstrous gains in 1974, so who knows.

31 seats was really not that big of a swing.  The big swings happened in 1994(54 seats), 1974(47 seats), 1966(47 seats), 1958(49 seats).  However, we rarely see swings any higher than 10 seats these days due to incumbency advantages.

Yeah, I sort of considered it a big swing because incumbency advantages have become so strong, so 31 does seem like a lot after a while.