Ron DeSantis retiring (running for Governor)

[136or142]

Politics1.com
@Politics1com
FLORIDA: Cong Ron DeSantis (R) enters open race for Governor today. Pres Trump endorsed him two weeks ago.

Early candidate slate per politics1

Florida District 6
Fred Costello (R) - Ex-State Rep., Ex-Ormond Beach Mayor, Dentist & '12/'16 Candidate
Jeremy Kelly (R)
John Ward (R) - Businessman & Navy Veteran
Bob Coffman (D) - Airline Pilot, Businessman & Retired Air National Guard Officer
Nancy Soderberg (D) - Ex-US Ambassador, Ex-Depy. Natl Security Advisor & '12 State Sen. Candidate

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unsurprising. Considering that McSally's retirement is a matter of when, not if, there are already as many Republican retirements as in 2008.

[smoltchanov]

Unsurprising. Considering that McSally's retirement is a matter of when, not if, there are already as many Republican retirements as in 2008.

+1. But i wouldn't want to be Adam Putnam now...

[Figueira]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

[Landslide Lyndon]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

[DemocraticKing]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

[136or142]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

Voted 58.6-41.4% for DeSantis in 2016 when he ran against an underfunded Democratic opponent.  I'd call this a 'second tier' opportunity for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Likely R

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

List is big. Not all districts from it will be competitive half-year from now.

[UncleSam]

Likely R house race.

[smoltchanov]

R+7. Is this the sort of district that could be competitive in a huge wave?

Obama won it 50/49 back in 2008, so yeah.

It moved right since then, so - not too likely. It's not one of those suburban districts Democrats target now..

Except it is on the DCCC target list.

Voted 58.6-41.4% for DeSantis in 2016 when he ran against an underfunded Democratic opponent.  I'd call this a 'second tier' opportunity for Democrats.

Probably - 'third tier'. Nancy Soderberg didn't impressed too much during her state Senate race 5 years ago. And besides her bench is minimal (one Black freshman state representative).

[Orser67]

Clinton won just 39.9% of the vote in the district, so I think I would probably keep the seat at Safe R.

[Young Conservative]

Safe R. Redistributing made it lean/Likely to Solid.

[King Lear]

This seat is Safe R, Democrats need to focus on the 23 Clinton-Republican districts if they want to flip the house, not districts that voted double-digits for Trump.

[Ebsy]

Open seats are the easiest to win. Democrats definitely need to field a serious candidate here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R--->Likely R.

[Donerail]

Volusia & Flagler have trended red but are by no means unwinnable — Nelson carried both in 2012, and both Obama and Crist held their opponents to under 50% in Volusia. If Dems hope for any kind of rebound with working-class white voters, this is the kind of seat where it needs to happen. Soderberg is an impressive candidate and has fundraised well, and with an iffy GOP field it'd be stupid not to target the seat. It's in the universe of Florida seats that are likely but not certainly R, along with the 3rd and most of the Tampa seats — because it's an open seat, it's probably more likely to flip than any of those (and a more likely Dem pickup than any FL seat besides the 18th and the Miami seats).

Safe R. Redistributing made it lean/Likely to Solid.

This is false, redistricting moved it about 7 points more Dem.

[Nyvin]

This district could be competitive with the right circumstances.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This seat can be competitive, but it won't.

[smoltchanov]

This seat can be competitive, but it won't.

Exactly my feelings. The ideal Democratic candidate here would, probably, be white moderate with working class roots, but good connections to fundraise (district isn't that cheap either). And i don't see anyone even remotely close to that desctiption, running. Of course, if Republicans nominate "a local Roy Moore" the district will instantly be "in play", but i don't think that Republicans will do it in every district...