NY-20 Special Election

[Brittain33]

They'll just dismantle the district in 2010 anyway, so who cares?

The "ZOMG THE DEMOCRATS JUST LOST A SPECIAL ELECTION IN A SEAT THEY HAD HELD!!11!1one!!!1" narrative is one I like to avoid.

Plus the DCCC is going to have to pour money into this thing.

Given the actual numbers of Democrats in the House and Senate, we can afford to lose a little PR for a few weeks and not lose any action on the legislative agenda, IMO.

[Brittain33]

"Carpetbagger from Schenectady" could work as a campaign strategy. With carpetbagger accusations, it can vary wildly depending on how well the non-carpetbagger candidate exploits it (and, to a lesser extent, on how well the carpetbagger responds to the charge).

This district is such a hodge-podge of counties from all over the state that I doubt many people know or care if Schenectady is in the district vs. anywhere else that a candidate could be from. I could see it having an impact in a primary where other R's want the guy defeated so they can win in the next round, but all the county committees did just agree to nominate him without a Bud Shuster-type situation, so he seems solid.

[Brittain33]

"Dude with money" actually raises the chances of a (D) retainment drastically.

A special election is not a standard election

Yes, I'd take that over a low-key mayor or assemblyman with demonstrably less machine pull in this district. We need someone with potential upside.

[Brittain33]

Until I see the quality of the businessman's campaign (dudes with money are usually bad politicians/campaigners, but you have to make sure first - there are certainly exceptions), I would temporarily call the race as Toss-up/Lean R or Lean R or whatever.

Absolutely. The district is still what it is.

[Brittain33]

Siena is rapidly evolving from a crap uni poll to the gold standard of New York polling. We'll need to see a poll showing Murphy leading for them to cement their reputation, though.

[Brittain33]

HE FINALLY ADMITS IT!

Does this really hurt in that district?

His reluctance to admit it for a very long time, when everyone knew all Republicans voted against it, indicate that he thought it would.

[Brittain33]

This race feels more and more like IL-14 or MS-3 with every passing day, even if I still wouldn't bet on the outcome.

[Brittain33]

Phone conversation between a very, very angry Republican PAC contact and a reporter in Albany.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/12541/natl-gop-trust-pac-voices-its-discontent

[Brittain33]

It's funny, because Scott Murphy looks like he could be Aaron Schock's uncle.

[Brittain33]

the one you mentioned, he's untelegenic.

He has very, very good hair. Did I mention that already?

[Brittain33]

Tedisco makes an unpolitic comment about Rush Limbaugh in an interview with an Oneonta newspaper.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/20/gop-candidate-tedisco-rus_n_177439.html

This could get ugly. I don't know if this happened in time for Rush Limbaugh's Friday show or whether we'll have to wait until Monday to get Rush's response. If it's the latter, Tedisco has time to apologize before the show tapes, and may only suffer limited media damage for his apology.

[Brittain33]

I doubt Rush is popular enough in upstate New York to warrant an apology from Tedisco. 

Talking Points Memo claims Tedisco's follow-up statement is a recanting... I think that's spin, especially since they spoke in response to the Huffington Post asking them about it.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/house-gop-candidate-nothing-i-said-should-be-construed-as-criticizing-rush.php

[Brittain33]

I doubt Rush is popular enough in upstate New York to warrant an apology from Tedisco.

Rush has listeners all over the country who will jam Tedisco's phone lines if Rush mentions his name on his show. I am skeptical that Rush will take the bait this time, but even if he talks about Tedisco in passing "more in sorrow than in anger" that will get the news out there and pressure will be brought to bear.

[Brittain33]

Obama endorses Murphy, e-mails supporters to ask them to volunteer for him.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/25/obama-flexes-political-mu_n_178801.html

[Brittain33]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

Bad macro conditions turn otherwise acceptable candidates into bad ones. Tedisco isn't setting the world on fire, but in a different environment, Murphy wouldn't be doing so well and Tedisco would be taken more seriously.

[Brittain33]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

[Brittain33]

ALBANY— "An independent observer told me last night that 91,000 is average for special elections."

This edition of "lying with statistics" is brought to you by the letters N and Y and the number 20.

[Brittain33]

Sounds like someone at Ellis Island couldn't spell "tedesco". Which is Italian for "German".

Yes, I've seen "Tudisco," too.

[Brittain33]

I doubt it.  I'm supporting Tedisco, but I'm not happy about it.  Just look how ugly he is!  Where in the world does he get his haircut??

Here Blubb, my gay gift to you, the best campaign song that Tedisco passed up the chance to use:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4lPA5G0DOo

Tedisco needs you. Jump ahead to 1:00 if you get antsy.

[Brittain33]

To be honest, I'm beginning to become indifferent about the results of this race, since there is a very small chance one vote will make the difference in any major vote in these next few years.

I agree. I was indifferent before the race, except insofar as a R win would drive a media narrative against Obama... but since that isn't going to happen even if Tedisco does pull it out, I'm not going to sweat one seat I thought we'd lose anywhere when she was picked. This race hasn't told us anything the polls on Obama haven't already told us. Republicans need more time before they come back from the wilderness, I would think everyone recognizes this.

[Brittain33]

I was finally effectively driven off for supporting Rudy "the abortionist" Giuliani. Remember him?

That was when I stopped reading the site. You don't get all of the credit; Jim Rob killed a whole flock of golden geese that week.

[Brittain33]

Why the hell would somebody like you bother posting in that cesspool?

As a media aggregator, Free Republic was second-to-none. It was the Twitter of its day. I went there on 9/11 for news updates because every media site was crashing while FR's servers were easily handling the posts from people watching tv all over the country.

[Brittain33]

Amazing. I want to live by the sign.

From what I can guess about the area, no, you really, really don't.