Do independents have a tendency to be anti-incumbent?

[President Johnson]

Do independents have some tendency to oppose who ever is holding the presidency? While I wouldn't put too much stock in them, some polls suggested Joe Biden at least has lost some support among them. Back in 2012, Obama lost independents to Romney and Trump got blown out last year. Is this actually the case or am I wrong?

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel like white independents = yes

Minority independents = no (the opposite)

[Hope For A New Era]

don't try to drag up my Bitecoferist past like this

anyway yeah probably

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Independents, like swing voters in general, generally lean towards incumbents but in certain circumstances become very likely to flip.
If independents have a tendency to be anti-incumbent, then how do you explain Clinton winning again in 1996 and Bush winning again in 2004?

[Real Texan Politics]

New Hampshire independents maybe?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're not living in 2014 Rs already had a cushion in the H, Rs have to Earn their way to Majority, don't expect a Red wave

[_.]

New Hampshire independents maybe?

As "Non-Swing Voter" said, White independents.

New Hampshire's seemingly constant swing against the incumbent party is interesting, though.
Chris Sununu must be doing something right to hang on like that.

[Del Tachi]

Independents, like swing voters in general, generally lean towards incumbents but in certain circumstances become very likely to flip.
If independents have a tendency to be anti-incumbent, then how do you explain Clinton winning again in 1996 and Bush winning again in 2004?

With the major caveat being that there is actually very little overlap between "independents" and "swing voters" in general, as something like >70% of self-reported "independents" vote for the same party election after election.  Republican voters have historically been more likely to adopt the "independent" label while Democratic voters are nominally more partisan but include the bulk of self-described "moderates."

"Independent" voters are mostly just people who don't like labels and exhibit lower social trust.  "Moderates" are either Boomer-age Democrats who remember "liberal" as a dirty word from the 1980s and 1990s or high-information voters who have convinced themselves they hold all the "reasonable" positions. 

[RI]

The average voter is far more pro-incumbent than anti-incumbent.