2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread (user search)
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  2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread  (Read 152111 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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Posts: 41,537
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« on: May 01, 2018, 09:45:01 PM »

Roy Cooper will probably win in 2019

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Good news: NC Dems on track to flip the General Assembly:

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The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,537
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2018, 09:59:39 PM »


The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP


BIG
The GOP's supermajorities in (both?) chambers are going to be gone imo, but an actual flip of both chambers under the current R-gerrymandered lines is going to be very hard to attain. If the VA state house didn't really flip in 2017, why would the NC state house and senate flip this year?
Also, important to note, NC is pretty inelastic...unlike WI.
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