Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

I've been told the whole "pay for participate" thing is to keep center-right voters from voting in the center-left primary. Is there not party registration for the public or is that typically reserved for the politicos? If the former, why not just conduct it like our "closed primary" system but specify which parties can participate (since it isn't just PD)?

The 2 euros are just for financing the primaries+the GE campaign...

Anway,registration to parties here is not nearly as big a "thing" as it is in the US.
Only REALLY passionate people register,so it would have been pretty pointless to have a closed primary.
Bersani would have probably won comfortably in that case.

[Keystone Phil]

La Stampa has an online poll going on: who will you vote for on Sunday? Over six thousand votes have been cast. Bersani is up by two...votes.   Surprise in the making?

[RogueBeaver]

If Renzi can coalesce most of the non-Bersani vote. *Crosses fingers* We'll see what happens at tonight's debate.

Has there been any runoff polling?

[Keystone Phil]

I haven't seen any polling. I'm sure there will be a few polls released tomorrow and Friday. I find it odd that I haven't seen any polling. I thought there might be a ban so close to the vote (like in the General) but since the primary is run by the party, that wouldn't be able to be enforced.

[RogueBeaver]

Bersani's the incumbent but Renzi's voters might be more enthusiastic... who knows. I'd be surprised if Bersani lost though.

[SPQR]

Polls are about 60-40% for Bersani.

Anyway the debate is up and running,Bersani doing much better IMO.

[Keystone Phil]

Renzi loves this casual appearance: no suit jacket.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So you can't vote on the runoff if you haven't on the first round? This is so ridiculous.

I know I should lose all hope at this point, but, you never know... I'll pray for an upset.

[SPQR]

Renzi as usual brought up interesting themes,especially concerning the past error of the center-left,but overall Bersani seems way more knowledgeable,especially on the economy and on the foreign policy.

I'll vote for Renzi,knowing that he'll probably lose, and hoping that my vote can contribute to changing the background of PD.

[Keystone Phil]

Did I read correctly that Renzi promised a middle class tax cut that Bersani couldn't commit to?

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi won the post-debate snap poll, but got dinged for a last-minute ad campaign in the national papers. Apparently violates the rules.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/24741/Centre-left-primary-candidates-slam-Renzi--violations-.html

[Keystone Phil]

Good news about the poll. What are the punishments for campaigning in the newspapers? This should be interesting since it's strictly a party affair. Will it just be a fine and who gets paid the fine since this isn't strictly a PD primary? Is there some independent organization set up to run everything?

[RogueBeaver]

No idea. Maybe one of our resident Italians can answer.

[Keystone Phil]

Alfano and Berlusconi will meet next week. From Facebook:



Angelino Alfano

Ho sentito il presidente Silvio Berlusconi e abbiamo concordato di convocare, la prossima settimana, l'Ufficio di Presidenza per assumere le decisioni riguardo le primarie e l'assetto migliore da presentare nella prossima campagna elettorale

[SPQR]

No idea. Maybe one of our resident Italians can answer.

I can't.
Nobody really cares about who receives the money,in all truth.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently the ads are a BFD... are these calls for Renzi to be disqualified and thrown off the ballot?

http://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/1133738/Primarie-Reggi-tutti-contro-Renzi-potrebbe-essere-espulso.html

[Keystone Phil]

What exactly in the ads was misleading? From what I've read, Renzi insists whatever was said was legal and within the rules of the primary so I don't see how disqualification is possible.

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt they throw him off 48 hours before the vote- among other things, ballots have probably already been printed. Plus it would cause a huge sh**tstorm.

[SPQR]

The ads just informed on how to register if someone couldn't vote last Sunday. They didn't say "Paid for by Renzi" or "Vote Renzi!" anywhere,
Everything is being blown up out of proportion.

[RogueBeaver]

His problem: can't expand the electorate, plus it sounds like his rivals are coalescing in an ABR movement. Result, the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani, will probably win.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/italy-s-renzi-faces-primary-defeat-at-hands-of-union-favorite.html

[Keystone Phil]

This newspaper "scandal" is probably being blown out of proportion to keep Bersani's troops energized/not think about sitting out the runoff. Pathetic.

[Keystone Phil]

What are we thinking for tomorrow? I'll say...

Bersani - 58%
Renzi - 42%

[Peter the Lefty]

the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani

Well, I suppose one could say he's a bit of a duller version of Adlai Stevenson.  Not a bad guy, but he's being propped up by a bunch of corrupt bastards who don't want Kefauver-esque mavericks like Renzi and Vendola pushing them out of power and exposing their corruption. 

[RogueBeaver]

At any rate, looks like Bersani will win and become Italy's next PM. Berlusconi might run if Bersani wins but I doubt SB can win... the old man has too much self-inflicted damage. IMO a reformist centre-leftist, ideally Renzi, most likely Bersani, would be much better to right (pun intended) the good ship SS Italian Economy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Bersani will probably win. Shame, I watched the debate and Renzi was clearly the one making the most important points (how the left can't keep making the same mistakes, how "grand coalitions" with centrists suck, etc.). He's got the right ideas regarding strategy, and injects some novelty in the Italian political scene, which it urgently needs it. With Bersani, it's easy to see how the left will end up embodying "the old politics" in 2013.