Are we supposed to factor in which party we want to control the Senate?
No, just which one you would feel more comfortable calling your Senator.
Then Collins.
Why is it shocking? Collins is to the left of Manchin on nearly every social issue, and it's not like Manchin is a firebrand populist either. He was endorsed by the CoC and supports a balanced budget amendment.
The fact you're ever willing to vote for a republican is shocking.
I just voted for a Republican state senator and state representative this past election. Granted, one had a terrible opponent and the other was unopposed.
Besides, in this hypothetical but ultimately impossible scenario Senate control is irrelevant, which is a pretty major factor in whether or not someone is willing to do crossover votes. If it was relevant I'd have picked Manchin, which is why I asked.