WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney (user search)
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  WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: WaPo/ABC National: Trump +2, Clinton +2 w/ Romney  (Read 2881 times)
Vosem
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« on: May 21, 2016, 11:47:33 PM »

Setting aside the topline of the poll, which is what it is (my instinct is to say a favorable outlier for Trump, but maybe he really does have a narrow lead at the moment; who knows), some interesting pieces of data inside:

Trump is getting 85% of the Republicans surveyed in this poll. Historically high total.

In spite of this, and in spite of voters' documented tendency to claim to have supported the winner after the fact, only 33% of those Republicans claim they wanted to see Trump win the nomination. 7% are unsure, and 60% would've preferred another candidate. (Specific candidates were named, though not in head-to-heads; named candidates usually perform worse than Generic). Goes to show what a travesty the Republican primaries were. (On another note, this poll's respondents claim to have voted for Obama against Romney 54-42, showing the existence of a bias towards the winner).

On the question of whether Trump reflects the values of the Republican Party (asked of Republicans), there is an even split, 46/46. Represents drastic improvement from last time the question was asked, in July 2015, when Republicans said no, 29/56, but it's still a historically low total for a nominee. 60% of the party want someone else, and fully half feel he doesn't represent them. (Hillary Clinton is Trump's saving grace. A skilled Democrat could've had half the Republican Party flee in terror).

53% of Trump supporters say they are merely opposing Clinton as opposed to actively supporting Trump. This is an incredibly high number in comparison to previous races, but it's pretty similar to Clinton's own totals (48% of her voters are merely opposing Trump). In a negative campaign, which both candidates have said they intend to wage, both of those numbers should rise.

44% of registered voters want a third party. 22% of those would support Romney. Really hope Romney comes around soon to realizing Johnson is his only option and campaigns for him aggressively.

Democrats are 88% confident their party will ultimately coalesce. Republicans are 78% confident their party will coalesce. Probably shows the core BernieOrBust and NeverTrump totals -- 12% and 22% of the parties, respectively. The difference is Bernie will probably campaign for Hillary, whereas NeverTrump politicians will endorse him either tepidly or not at all. I expect the 22% to be much firmer than the 12%.

The Democratic Party is viewed positively, 48/44. The Republican Party is viewed negatively, 36/56. About half of respondents don't care who congressional candidates support presidentially; endorsing Trump seems to hurt more than endorsing Hillary, but then no congressional candidates are running for a national audience.

Lots to pick apart in issues, but very odd in a poll that's one of the most favorable ones to Trump released, at least in the toplines, saying Clinton is more trusted on immigration issues. Very odd.

"Trade with other countries" is declared to cost U.S. jobs, 33/53. Other polling has shown "free trade" getting consistent majorities in favor. People have no idea what they're talking about.
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