OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[TJ in Oregon]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is enough to maybe go to the recount zone:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1027025172656738307

Assuming this is correct, O'Connor will need about 71% of all these provisionals in order to win (roughly 6,000 of the 8,400) and considering a solid # will likely be thrown out, probably closer to if not over 100%.

Remember: that number is not just provisional ballots but also unreturned absentee ballots that theoretically could have been postmarked in time to be valid. That means a significant chunk of the absentee ballots are likely not going to be returned and a significant chunk that are will be for Balderson (mailed ballots overall are historically more Republican than election day ballots, no idea about those postmarked in time but not received by election day). I haven't read how many are actually provisional ballots, which should be heavily O'Connor if valid (which also isn't a given).

So, yes, O'Connor has a theoretical path, but it's extremely unlikely he wins based on the outstanding ballots. What's probably more likely at this point (though still quite remote) is some sort of counting mistake that gets uncovered in the next couple days.

[TJ in Oregon]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

Even if you're right, I think it's likely he milks this for everything he can get, if the 2000, 2004, and 2016 elections show is anything it's that much of his base doesn't take losing with grace.

He'd be crazy to concede when he's down by fewer votes than the number of uncounted ballots. It's unreasonable to expect him to.