Four years from today, who will be.....?

[Mr. Morden]

...president of the United States?
...chancellor of Germany?
...president of France?
...prime minister of the UK?
...prime minister of Canada?
...prime minister of Australia?

[Mr. Morden]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? David Cameron
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott

Other than the bolded, the others look reasonable.  Though 1) Isn't Merkel going to retire at some point?  She's really going to be chancellor for 11+ years?  2) I don't know that Abbott will last that long, given how frequent party coups have become in recent years here in Oz.  Maybe he'll get replaced by Joe Hockey or something by then.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton as US president working with Ed Miliband as UK PM could be interesting, given Hillary's feelings for Ed's brother: 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/17/hillary-clinton-david-miliband-interview

Not to mention the rumor that the Clintons helped David land that charity job in New York.

[Mr. Morden]

Germany: Merkel, but she is retiring at the 2017 election later in the year

How does it work in Germany?  Is there actually precedent for a party leader who's retiring of his/her own volition to step down at the election, and not months/years beforehand, so as to give her successor a running start, a la the Blair/Brown transition in the UK?

[Mr. Morden]

a few longshot bets:

Hillary Clinton
Thomas de Maizière
Marine Le Pen
Ed Milliband
Stephen Harper
Julia Gillard

That's looking like quite a longshot right now. 

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? - Rudd

Nope.  Looks like that won't happen. 

Looks like Shorten is the favorite to be the next Labor leader, so he'd presumably then be the favorite to be the PM in four years if Labor wins the next election, but time will tell.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Shorten looking like a decent bet for Australian PM.

If nothing else, I believe the reformed procedure for selecting ALP party leader makes it hard for Shorten to be replaced before the next election.  Whereas I don't think there have been any corresponding reforms on the other side of the aisle, leaving Abbott vulnerable to a coup in the event that things get really bad.

Also, Hollande is looking like a shakier prospect for president of France.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Things are getting interesting in the English-speaking Commonwealth countries re: who might be head of government one year from now, let alone four years from now.

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support. 

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support. 

It was already on life support when he made the prediction.

True.  But it's now more on life support than it was a week ago.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

OK, so it looks like Miliband isn't going to happen.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

Oops.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Those who predicted Cameron and Trudeau are looking good.  Probably Turnbull too, though that's less certain.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Those who predicted Cameron and Trudeau are looking good.  Probably Turnbull too, though that's less certain.

Hmmm....

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (despite me thinking Malcolm wins tomorrow)

Shorten's going to hang on as ALP leader even if they lose the election this weekend?  (Not saying that's not true, I just haven't really thought about it.)

[Mr. Morden]

...president of the United States? Donald Trump
...chancellor of Germany? Sigmar Gabriel
...president of France? Nicolas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcom Turnbull

Congrats.  You were the only person in this thread to guess Donald Trump for POTUS, who now looks likely to be the right answer.  Of course, none of the people posting in 2013 got it right.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, no one guessed Theresa May for UK PM until after the Brexit vote took place, though Crabcake came close:

UK: David Cameron, ready to hand over to Theresa May.

[Mr. Morden]

One month to go until the four year anniversary of this thread’s creation.  Many people who were guessing back in 2013 got Merkel right, and a few got Trudeau right.  No one else who was guessing within the first month of this thread’s creation got any of the other ones right.  Heck, regardless of who wins the French runoff, no one even got the correct political party on that one. 

Props to change08 though, for correctly (assuming he isn’t ousted within the next few months) guessing Turnbull in his post from Sept. 2013:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg3861745#msg3861745

[Mr. Morden]

...president of the United States? Trump (It won't be election day 2020 at this point)

Huh?  Four years from today will be April 2021, three months after the inauguration of whoever won the 2020 election.

[Mr. Morden]

The last post in this thread from 2013:

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnball

He managed to get three out of six right.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

No, Angela Merkel won't be Chancellor four years from now. It's an open secret that she intends to retire by 2017 at the latest and is already setting up Urusla von der Leyen as her hand-picked successor.

She's already working on an exit.

Well, it's four years later, and looks like this was wrong.  Merkel's still in.

Four years ago, some folks in this thread were correctly predicting Merkel and Trudeau.  Only one poster was predicting Turnbull in Australia.  Unsurprisingly, no one guessed Trump, May, or Macron.

[Mr. Morden]

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Close.  You were off by a few months.

Also, no one was predicting Scott Morrison for Australia back in 2014/2015.

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of the UK? Boris Johnson

This looks likely now.  Seems unlikely there'll be another election before 2021, so Johnson will still be PM then.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, no one who posted in this thread in either 2017 or 2018 predicted Biden would be POTUS four years later.  Obamaisdabest predicted Harris would be prez in 4 years back on April 29, 2017: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg5628151#msg5628151

That seems very unlikely to be correct at this point, but I guess in the unlikely event that Biden gets a massive health scare during his first three months in office, then it could happen.

The other predictions people had back in 2017/2018 for who would be president in 2021/2022 were: 4 predictions for Trump, 2 for Pence, 2 for Warren, and 1 each for Booker, Bullock, Gillibrand, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Tom Perriello, and Darryl W. Perry (lol).  And like I said, zero people predicting Biden.

Also, as noted in my previous post, back in April 2017, LabourJersey predicted that Boris Johnson would be UK PM in four years.  No one else was predicting Johnson back in 2017.  Most people at that point predicted that May would still be PM in 2021.

Lots of people in 2017 predicted Merkel in Germany, Macron in France, and Trudeau in Canada, but those were the safest predictions to make in 2017.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Well, no one posted predictions in this thread in 2018.  So we don’t know if anyone would have gotten Scholz or Albanese during that time.  However, we do have two predictions from September 2019 that predicted Albanese:

Updating, holy hell I was off on some of these back in 2017 haha

...president of the United States? who knows honestly
...chancellor of Germany? AKK probably
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Gove
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese