Who wants to guess that percentage of Republicans Stewart will win? I'll go with 92%.
Kaine will win >90% of Democrats as well, so I'm not sure what to make of this. Partisans usually support the candidate of the same affiliation as they by such a high rate.
The thing is, you have Konfederate Klown Korey running a joke campaign, and Tim Kaine is a relatively moderate Democrat. Most statewide winners in Virginia campaign as "centrists", and... well, Stewart is certainly failing to do that, pointing to Kaine potentially winning over a fair amount of Republicans. It will likely be enough to knock Stewart's share of the Republican vote to below 90%.
It does not help that Virginia's demographics are becoming more and more hostile to Republicans every year, making it hard for even a "moderate" Republican to win statewide.
Most partisans support the party to which they are affiliated; that has been true for a long time. I was taking issue with IceSpear's guess that 92% of Republicans will support Stewart. The point you make about there being a higher rate of defections actually applies well here. It's possible that Kaine may get as many as 10-15% of Republicans, especially if he is winning by twenty percentage points.
Looking at NBC exit polls for the 2017 Gubernatorial race in VA (
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA), IceSpear's guess might actually be on the low end. Gillespie won 95% of Republicans in that exit poll, and Northam won 97%. If Kaine is winning big time, it would probably be contributed more by Republicans staying home and Democrats showing up in droves. The Republicans that still go to vote would largely be the hyperpartisans who wouldn't vote for Antifa boosting balding fool Kaine over Virginia-loving and, erm... "patriot" Corey Stewart in any scenario.
I think the main demographic at play in this race is native Minnesotans that moved to Virginia. What do they think of Stewart? Will they be willing to vote for fellow Democrat Tim Kaine (as we all know that all people from MN are true populist Democrats at
), or leer into the populism and economic appeals from Stewart's campaign? Also, are they willing to either stand in the solidarity of their fellow Minnesotan, or contribute to his humiliation?
