“Doomers” megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323280291964878848


BEET.WAS.RIGHT

[Torrain]

That’s it I’m calling it. Rain in NoVa has destroyed Biden’s chances. Devastating 😞

[NYSforKennedy2024]

None of you should be anxious over horribly inaccurate/false polling data when states and the federal govt. are preparing for chaos and mass militarization lmao. A Trump win is the least of our problems.

This is not normal.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323280291964878848


BEET.WAS.RIGHT

44-42 is WELL below both candidates floor. 56% either don't like it, or don't care either way.

[LimoLiberal]

The new Marist state polls have made me the most sure I ever was that Trump is going to win.

[Xing]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

And he was leading by 2 points more 10 days ago.

At that rate, he'll be leading by .2% less tomorrow, which is 8.3%. You're still supposed to be on your break, remember.

[Inmate Trump]

I don’t care about polls and who wins tomorrow doesn’t matter.  Trump is going to try and steal it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-kamala-harris-battleground-states/index.html

[ultraviolet]

Why did I click on this thread

[ꙮ]

Idk guys, I think if Trump keeps surging 4% tomorrow like he did today (according to high quality Susquehanna, Trafalgar, and Rasmussen polls) then he'll only be down 2% in the popular vote. After you consider the 3% Dems will lose from the mail-in ballot rejections, the 6% shy Trump voter effect, and Trump's 5% Electoral College advantage, the situation looks pretty bad. I have no idea what I am going to do, I'm too stressed to even think clearly right now.

I get no pleasure out of predicting this, but it is impossible for Biden to win the election. With this kind of data he'd be lucky to win 200 Electoral Votes. Don't say I didn't tell you so on Wednesday when its clear that Trump will be re-elected with a Republican House and Senate.

[Hammy]

The new Marist state polls have made me the most sure I ever was that Trump is going to win.

Trump resigning, turning himself in, and confessing to everything would make you sure Trump is going to win.

[Rand]

The new Marist state polls have made me the most sure I ever was that Trump is going to win.

K, it's quiet time from now on.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump’s not going to win legally.

[S019ian Liberal]

a) there’s been a massive surge in black male support for Trump,
therefore “if black males vote then Trump will win.” Also, Hispanics in Florida.

Polls seem to suggest there might be some swing to Trump from this demographic, but the part that goes "if black males vote then Trump will win" is obviously ludicrous. The more black males that vote the better it will be for Biden.

Neither of you are right lol.

If more black men who vote for Trump turn out than black men who vote for Biden, then that helps the former.

Conversely, every democrat black man who votes hurts Trump instead.

Simply and ease as that!

[Ferguson97]

a) there’s been a massive surge in black male support for Trump,
therefore “if black males vote then Trump will win.” Also, Hispanics in Florida.

Polls seem to suggest there might be some swing to Trump from this demographic, but the part that goes "if black males vote then Trump will win" is obviously ludicrous. The more black males that vote the better it will be for Biden.

Neither of you are right lol.

If more black men who vote for Trump turn out than black men who vote for Biden, then that helps the former.

Conversely, every democrat black man who votes hurts Trump instead.

Simply and ease as that!

Doesn’t it depend where they’re concentrated? If Trump’s Black support is in states like California and Arkansas, then it doesn’t matter. If it’s concentrated in Pennsylvania and Georgia, then it does matter.

[HisGrace]

If the polls are off by the same amount as last time Trump wins again. We'll see if the polling errors were a one off.

[redjohn]

If the polls are off by the same amount as last time Trump wins again. We'll see if the polling errors were a one off.

polling errors are never a "one off", it's practically impossible every polling average in every state will be completely correct. there are undecided voters and some groups are more difficult to reach; you can bet that they won't ALL be correct.

it's weird to claim or even think that we will have the same polling errors in the same states as 2016. It's a regurgitated take that has for some reason been circulating for years in political discourse and yet makes zero sense. The polls were off in 2012, and guess who benefitted? Barack Obama. Polls underestimated Republicans in some states in 2018, and Democrats in other states.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

None of you should be anxious over horribly inaccurate/false polling data when states and the federal govt. are preparing for chaos and mass militarization lmao. A Trump win is the least of our problems.

This is not normal.

Trust me, honey, we've gotten used to it. This is our new normal.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Trump’s not going to win legally.

[HisGrace]

Another thing here is that Trump's approval is at 44% on 538 and 45 on RCP. All modern presidents to lose reelection have had lower approvals than that outside of Ford who obviously faced unique circumstances having not even been elected VP in the first place.

[HisGrace]

Biden appears to have fallen to a pretty similar as Clinton this time in terms of the swing states, he obviously has a considerably larger lead in the PV but as we know that doesn't matter. What is the argument for why it will turn out differently? Some people have cited individual polls doing a better job recording polling non educated voters in the rust belt, but is that a universal phenomenon?

[politics_king]

If the polls are off by the same amount as last time Trump wins again. We'll see if the polling errors were a one off.

Ugh I can't wait to come back here at Midnight.

[HisGrace]

If the polls are off by the same amount as last time Trump wins again. We'll see if the polling errors were a one off.

Ugh I can't wait to come back here at Midnight.

I mean dude I want Biden to win, that's why I'm in the "Doomers" thread and not the "OMG, TRUMP MAGA" thread (do we have one of those?). This just looks like the exact same thing as last time where it looks like a comfortable win and then the polls tighten in the lat couple days.

[Badger]

Trump’s not going to win legally.

Haha. Blatant electoral fraud threatening to rupture the very fabric of our society and Country and end the American Democratic experience for all is a funny thing! Hahaha!

[One Term Floridian]

Ya this is the last time I click on this thread. This would make even the most confident election analyst want to shoot themselves

[Rules for me, but not for thee]