Big Redistricting News Out Of PA!

[Oryxslayer]

This belongs in the geography and demographics thread.


I still like the news. For those that don't know, the PA supreme court is 5D-2R, so the court will vote in favor of new maps no doubt.

[Oryxslayer]

Yawn. The legislature will simply pass another gerrymander even if this monkey business comes to pass.

and Tom Wolf will veto it.

And we will override the veto. Fun times.

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

[Oryxslayer]

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

Ah, young grasshopper! That leaves the GOP a few votes short of a veto override. We will find allies in the Pennsylvania state legislature such as the Democratic friends of Philadelphia party boss Bob Brady.

I remember in 2011 when I warned liberals that we would enlist Clay/Cleaver allies to vote for Congressional redistricting and they did not want to believe me. And then Clay/cleaver allies delivered the votes to override Jay Nixon's veto of the redistricting. It was the first veto override of that governor.

Link

History has a way of repeating itself.

Two problems I see with this - perhaps you could enlighten me on either of these things. First the map, if redrawn, will probably be handed down from the Democrat dominated court rather than left to the State like in Florida. The court will pick a map/draw its own, then encourage the legislature it can change it in little ways if it doesn't like it.

Second, in 2010, the Republicans controlled everything. They had the power to promise concessions beyond the shape of their districts to the Philly machine. Now with wolf in the Governors mansion, Democrats can offer their own deals if it truly comes to this in regards to redistricting.

[Oryxslayer]

As a followup, I pretty sure Brady was for the maps because he wants a seat were he can survive a primary from any minority candidate - arguably why his district is mixed containing varying amounts of Whites/Blacks/Hispanics. Its not even hard for the courts/Team D to put forward a map that preserves this intent while creating compact districts and prevents the seat from spiraling into Delaware.

In fact, if the partisan courts expect this, their map will expect such a move and draw such a district ahead of time.

Cartwright can get a Bluer district simply from being compact Luzurne+Lakwanna+Monroe than what he has now.

[Oryxslayer]

And yes, there is no precedent for it - but the PA supreme court is 5D-2R. Do you expect them to be handed a tacket to a bluer map and simply say "nah, my partisan lean doesn't matter in this case."

[Oryxslayer]

Back in 2013 I looked at PA using DRA as the muon rules were first being fleshed out. With help from Torie, traininthedistance, and jimrtex, I came up with a balanced neutral plan. I couldn't find my drf file from back then, so I reconstructed it with a couple of tweaks to reflect the current version of the rules.



Chester is the only macrochopped county smaller than a CD, and only three other small counties have regular chops. No city/borough/township is chopped except Philly, and no ward within Philly is chopped. Obama won 11 of the 18 CDs in 2008. DRA population deviations and current PVIs for the CDs are:

CD 1: (-42) D+22
CD 2: (-497) D+39; BVAP 52.6%
CD 3: (+180) R+5
CD 4: (-1808) R+5
CD 5: (+1704) R+16
CD 6: (-691) R+0
CD 7: (-616) D+8
CD 8: (+1566) R+2
CD 9: (+1078) R+15
CD 10: (-1173) R+20
CD 11: (-491) R+2
CD 12: (+1919) R+8
CD 13: (-636) D+17
CD 14: (+921) D+12
CD 15: (-2359) R+7
CD 16: (+963) R+13
CD 17: (-1047) D+0
CD 18: (+1006) D+2

This might give some sense as to what a new neutral map might produce.

Just confirming did you use the "first" or the "second" 2010 map in the list provided by DRA on popup? Because the 2012-2016 PVI is piecemeal at best in the first. You need to pick 2010 Voting Districts, not 2010 Voting districts (updated by state).

I knew this exists because last week I was playing around and was confused why PA04 is only R+4/5. The correct PVI is R+17ish. Similar tells are you PA 11 and 15 - they should be pretty much PVI of 0, the piecemeal map however is missing a bunch of PVI's for precincts and sants the districts one way or another.

Also, can I get a zoom in on Philly?

[Oryxslayer]

CD 1: (-42) D+22
CD 2: (-497) D+39; BVAP 52.6%
CD 3: (+180) R+5
CD 4: (-1808) R+5
CD 5: (+1704) R+16
CD 6: (-691) R+0
CD 7: (-616) D+8
CD 8: (+1566) R+2
CD 9: (+1078) R+15
CD 10: (-1173) R+20
CD 11: (-491) R+2
CD 12: (+1919) R+8
CD 13: (-636) D+17
CD 14: (+921) D+12
CD 15: (-2359) R+7
CD 16: (+963) R+13
CD 17: (-1047) D+0
CD 18: (+1006) D+2

2, 1, 13, 14, 7, 18, 17, 6, 8, 11, 3, 4, 15, 12, 16, 9, 5, 10
<more dem...................more gop>
Median seats are 8 and 11, R+2, pretty much in line with the state at large.

Again he is using a piecemeal map, with only about 1/3 of the precincts having 2012/2016 data - HE NEEDS TO USE THE SECOND ON THE LIST. Want to confirm? Open PA in DRA and then mouse around over precincts - you will easily see many missing ones. You need to pick 2010 voting districts, not 2010 voting districts State Updated.

This is a problem because DRA ads up PVI per precinct and averages them to produce a final result. If only a third of precincts have data - you districts will only reflect that third.

[Oryxslayer]

The districts in the Philly suburbs are ridiculously gerrymandered and I've long felt that the GOP should simply concede one more district to the dems in southeast PA. On the other hand, PA 17 was drawn as a democrat vote sink and Trump still won it in 2016. A fairly drawn PA 17 would probably have to include all of Luzcerne and Lackawanna counties while Easton is given back to Lehigh Valley based PA 15. If this were the case, the district would lean R. The truth is that, as a result of democrats being so concentrated in Philly, it would take an extreme gerrymander to even have 7 democrat districts out of 18. PA will lose a district after the 2020 census anyway (maybe even two) so this seems like a waste of time for one or two elections at most.

Interestingly as shown by Moun's district above, the 2010 numbers really encourage PA-17 to be Luzerne+Lackawanna+Monroe - the three counties are only a few hundred voters off of baseline. Such a district would be 51.7-44.6 Trump, compared to the current districts 54-43. It would have a Even PVI whereas the current district has a R+1. The thing really anchoring Pubs in the current PA-17 is Schuylkill, the one real remnant of the 2000 PA-17. The county was Tim Holden's base, and so it was grafted on to all the former Dem areas of PA-11.

The thing about PA is that the geography really favors the Pubs. Most fair maps can really only get 10/11 Obama districts out of a state Obama won by 10%. A 2012/2016 fair map of PA typically has:

-5 Solid Blue Districts: 4 in Philly Metro and one in Philly
-4 Marginal districts:  two in Metro, one in Lehigh valley, one in Northeast - my maps tend to have these all never leave a D+1/R+1 margin
-1 rarely competitive R seat somewhere with a R+5/6/7 PVI
-8 Safe Republican Seats across the state.

A fair map only really gives the Dems one seat, and pushes the four remaining swing seats closer to the center. The state favors the Pubs, and if this wasn't looking like a Democratic year, a fair map might not really change the state arithmetic.

[Oryxslayer]

Or a new swing seat in a court-drawn map where Chester has a D+ PVI. What a time to be alive

Chester is interesting - in 2008/2012 the county was easily still to the right of the state. In 2016 the county swung very hard to to the left, and it looks to be staying that way. Democrats appear to have made strides in the row offices last week, and the county backed the failed Liberal bid at the Supreme court, even while the Liberal Judge lost Lakawanna, Erie, and Lehigh all went for the Conservative. For reference, the race was 52-47 Conservative Judge.

The weird thing is that when drawing fair districts in that region of PA, there is a Gordian Knot in the lines. You have the numbers for two districts (6/16) and a few extraneous pops to balance out the 13th or the 7th. However, the counties make things nice. Of Chester, Berks, and Lancaster, only two can get a district based around them. The third has to get brutally cut up between her neighbors. There is no way to avoid it. We have a map in this thread that cuts Chester, and a map that cuts Lancaster - and I always have liked to cut Berks. There is no real solution which is the better county to cut.

[Oryxslayer]

Holy hell is that a lot of cut counties - I have drawn maps that only cut 6.