Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Good job Biden, you idiot.

what

Putin never did anything like this when Trump was president. They both had respect for each other.

He just made the POTUS embarrassing himself in front of the entire world by siding with an authoritarian leader over his own Intel Service. Nice try.

[Sir Mohamed]

Concerning, though it's difficult to make a fair assessment based in reliable information. I think Putin may use the buildup as leverage to gain formal control over Donbass and other areas he's been looking for since 2014.

Problem for the Western nations is that beyond sanctions there's not a ton of leverage. Ukraine would, despite massive aid, not be able to resist an invasion. A US or NATO involvement would inevitably get us close to WWIII.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think perseverating on the date is not healthy and I don’t think that the intelligence was necessarily insistent on that date or any date. What we do know is there any claims of a purported withdrawal are not true.

Which no one should be surprised of. I mean, it's not the first time Putin and his regime are engaged in promotion of fake news and disinformation campaigns. I dunno what he even tries to accomplish with the claim; he can't believe we're stupid enough to fall for this. Any withdrawl would be verified by satelite images.

[Sir Mohamed]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

[Sir Mohamed]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

[Sir Mohamed]

Does anyone else here find it possible that if Ukraine is invaded, they surrender Donetsk and surrounding territories without even fighting? That’s what Romania did with Bessarabia when the Soviets Occupied it in 1940.

The region is already under de facto Russian control since 2014/15, so there's nothing to surrender. The question is whether an actual invasion goes beyond this territory. Ukraine would for sure not surrender right away, I just don't think they stand much of a chance even with massive military aid from NATO members.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495775697121517570

Is this even Putin? Some time ago I noticed that he wears his watch on the right arm.

[Sir Mohamed]

Putin probably run through the scenario and decided that it was worth it. As much as harsh sanctions are needed, I think he doesn't care that much.

At this point, the question is only whether military action is limited to territories already de facto under control of pro-Russian separatist forces or whether it will be extended. As for now, it's pretty much the same playbook as Georgia '08.

[Sir Mohamed]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

As soon as he actively attempts this, Putin would possibly see this as invitation and invade Ukraine entirely. And without active military intervention from NATO forces (which wouldn't happen), Russia would have occupied the whole country in a matter of weeks and Zelensky would either be arrested or in exile.

More importantly, even if he had nukes, where exactly would he use them? In Donbass and occupied territory? He would conquer back territory that's no longer habitable from nuclear fallout. He would have to attack Russia directly, which would not only cause thousands of innocent deaths, it would be the starting point for WWIII.

Last but not least, arming Ukraine with nukes would embolden Russia, the PRC or other bad actors to arm other horrible regimes with nukes with whom they're allied because "the West has done the same."

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes (literally sane)

[Sir Mohamed]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

As soon as he actively attempts this, Putin would possibly see this as invitation and invade Ukraine entirely. And without active military intervention from NATO forces (which wouldn't happen), Russia would have occupied the whole country in a matter of weeks and Zelensky would either be arrested or in exile.

More importantly, even if he had nukes, where exactly would he use them? In Donbass and occupied territory? He would conquer back territory that's no longer habitable from nuclear fallout. He would have to attack Russia directly, which would not only cause thousands of innocent deaths, it would be the starting point for WWIII.

Last but not least, arming Ukraine with nukes would embolden Russia, the PRC or other bad actors to arm other horrible regimes with nukes with whom they're allied because "the West has done the same."

The NATO bloc already tore down one precedent by separating Kosovo from Serbia, emboldening Russia and allowing it to support allied movements in Georgia and later Ukraine.
It'd be for the best if we didn't destroy another precedent for sake of short-term gain. No one should supply Ukraine any nukes. The knock-on effects would be disastrous.

Except there was an ethnic cleansing issue in Kosovo, so I don't think that is much of a precedent.

That's also why Mr. Putin is telling the flat out lie that something similar is about to happen in Eastern Ukraine and done by Ukrainian forces. Russian state media pretty much claims that there's a fascist, American puppet govt in Kiev.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think WWII and Nazi comparisons should always be used with caution, but is it just me who reminds this of Hitler's Sudetenland playbook? At least there are similarities.

[Sir Mohamed]

What the heck, this is actually happening? The people of Ukraine are in my prayers. I just hope Andriy is alright. I feel really bad for him. I can't believe thousands of people are about to die for one man's ego trip and his revisionist view of history. Seriously, what the f--k?

It's time to impose the toughest possible sanctions on Russia and aid Ukraine with massive American weaponry to make this blatant violation of international law. Mr. Putin is actually a case of the Den Haag Court for War Criminals!

[Sir Mohamed]

Seizing total control of Ukraine with a puppet govt is definitely what this is coming down to. This is no longer about the 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. Zelensky will most likely head into exile by next week, if not earlier. Europe possibly needs to be prepared for a major wave of Ukrainian refugees in the coming weeks or months.

That said, Putler pretty much exposed himself that this was never about a "safe distance" to NATO borders. With this move, HE moves closer to NATO, not the former is coming close to him as Ukraine membership was never a question within the next years. It was always a lie from the Russian regime.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seizing total control of Ukraine with a puppet govt is definitely what this is coming down to. This is no longer about the 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. Zelensky will most likely head into exile by next week, if not earlier. Europe possibly needs to be prepared for a major wave of Ukrainian refugees in the coming weeks or months.

That said, Putler pretty much exposed himself that this was never about a "safe distance" to NATO borders. With this move, HE moves closer to NATO, not the former is coming close to him as Ukraine membership was never a question within the next years. It was always a lie from the Russian regime.

I seriously can't believe that the Chamberlain crew actually thought there was some kind of treaty or agreement that could've abated this. This has never been about NATO "encirclement." It's about land.

Yup, and it's especially about Russian neighbors becoming stable democracies. More than anything, Putin is afraid this "spreads" to Russia and threatens his power and the influence of oligarchs.

[Sir Mohamed]

Repeating "Kabul Kabul Kabul" is Russian propaganda. There is no reason to believe the collapse of the Ukrainian state is imminent.

Not sure, Russia is a much different thing than Taliban. I hope you're right and I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised, if a week from now Zelensky is still in Ukraine and its prez. I actually expect him to flee into exile in the coming days, if not hours. Not to mention the possibility he'll be murdered. As much as I hate to say it.

[Sir Mohamed]

A potentially stupid question, though I wonder how Putin would react to NATO actually getting involved militarily to assist Ukraine? Would he actually risk a direct confrontation with NATO and the United States, or would he blink? I'm saying we should intervene, I just ask myself how he'd react.

[Sir Mohamed]

Old Eastern Bloc nations wouldn't have joined our be lining up to join NATO if they felt safe from the country that defacto subjugated them for fifty years. It's really a simply tenet.

Yup, and Putler is working overtime to get others like Finland into NATO. In the long run, this move could for sure backfire massively.

[Sir Mohamed]

Let’s send troops into West Ukraine and call his bluff. Biden needs to be strong. COME ON JOE

I think this would be very dangerous, and this would take a lot more time since we would have to move troops from America across the Atlantic.

[Sir Mohamed]

BREAKING: German news sources report that EU plans to impose massive sanctions against Putin and Lavrov personally. Previously, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner strongly pledged to do so.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1497203448542081029

Good, Biden needs to follow asap. Putin has chosen war, now he needs to bear the full consequences.

[Sir Mohamed]

I read this a couple of times now: Ukraine claiming the invasion already cost over 1,000 Russian casualties.

Take this with a HUGE grain of salt. I find it hard to believe, tbh, BUT if remotely true, it would be total disaster for Putin, even if he finally ends up being successful in occupying Ukraine. Just remember the US lost around 4.5k in Iraq over several years, so losing 1k in less than 48 hours would be a disaster of epic magnitude. However, I won't believe it until confirmed by independent sources or intel services of NATO members.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1497207616333877253

[Sir Mohamed]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497240686961336327?ref_src=twsrc%...

Go ahead! They already sanctioned Putin and his foreign minister directly. Biden needs to follow asap.

[Sir Mohamed]

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course

Tbh, not necessarily. If you further spin this and if Putin is insane enough, he could just demand Poland and Baltics to leave NATO or be occupied/annexed by Russia and threaten nuclear warfare. NATO HQ - or de facto Joe Biden - would be left with the decision to either surrender said countries or start WWIII with millions of deaths. I'm not sure millions of Europeans in France, Germany, Netherlands etc. and millions of Americans would be willing to die to have vast parts of their countries as nuclear deserts because of a bunch of Eastern European countries.

Not that I think this is likely, though Putin could for whatever reason decide it was worth the risk.

[Sir Mohamed]

Might be a ridiculous question, though it just crossed my mind whether there's any possibility that Mr. Putin will be indicted before the Den Haag International Criminal Court? Or whether it's somehow possible that an international arrest warrant for war crimes is issued? So he couldn't leave Russia or enter any country that would enforce such?