So what happened in Colorado?

[Sbane]

Yeah, I know. Udall lost and the Democrats go spanked across the board (except for the Hick!), Ken Buck etc etc.

Still, if you look at the senate race closely and the swing counties, in particular Jefferson, Broomfield and Larimer, Udall should have only lost by maybe a point, perhaps even less than that. The real swing seemed to occur in places like Weld, Adams, Pueblo and Arapahoe counties. There were also large swings in Western Colorado outside the ski areas. In my opinion the reason for this is two fold. The first is that either Hispanics swung to the Republicans or just didn't turn up. The second reason, pertinent in western Colorado, is the backlash against gun control.

Going back to the first reason, it is not as if turnout went down from 2010 in Pueblo. There was just a swing against the Democrats. Why is that? Is it the white vote that swung, Hispanics or a mix of both? If it was the white vote, why did it occur in Pueblo and Weld, and not in Jefferson or Larimer? If it was the Hispanic vote, what are the implications of that? Looking at the national house vote, it shows a large swing to Republicans among Asians but not as much among Hispanics. I think that might not be so accurate, especially in Colorado.

[Sbane]

Yes, but delving into the numbers a bit, if I just looked at the bellwethers of Colorado and nothing else, my first thought would have been Ken Buck!

[Sbane]

Does anyone have insight into what happened with the political coalitions in Colorado? Again, just looking at the bellwethers, one would think Udall lost by just a point.

[Sbane]

Does anyone have insight into what happened with the political coalitions in Colorado? Again, just looking at the bellwethers, one would think Udall lost by just a point.

Could it be a differential turnout issue, with the Pubs running up the numbers in Douglas and El Paso counties?

About the same number voted in Pueblo as well as Weld that did in 2010. So what happened there? And why didn't it occur in Jefferson or Larimer? And Udall actually won Broomfield! Maybe his uterus focus worked with the suburban women there? That could be a possible explanation.

[Sbane]

Nothing different from what happened in the rest of the country. The GOP did well overall and thus swept swing States.

I think Colorado shows the problems Democrats have with non-black minorities. They just aren't going to line up and vote for them no matter what, unlike blacks. If hispanics and asians decide to not vote in a presidential year, like they did this year, then winning the presidency becomes much harder. Especially if blacks go back to voting 90-10 as opposed to 95-5 for Obama. 

[Sbane]

Why aren't the networks talking about the sudden uncertainty in the status of who won this race?

Because even if KCDem's numbers are right, Udall would have to get 62.5% of the two party vote to overtake Gardner. And since some of the ballots will be for independents, he actually needs a greater margin than that. The race may get down to 1.5% or so but Gardner still wins. That also means I called this race absolutely perfectly.